TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That was teh 2m surface temp map Randy posted Its easy to tell with the barbs, waiting for resulting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That was teh 2m surface temp map Randy posted My bad I am exhausted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Its easy to tell with the barbs, waiting for resulting Its .3-.4 QPF... not sure where its coming from as i dont see any h5 energy nearby... WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Its easy to tell with the barbs, waiting for resulting , I am going to sleep before any other models ruin my dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Its .3-.4 QPF... not sure where its coming from as i dont see any h5 energy nearby... WAA? I'd think so, no vort on the map so its sketchy, but it does "amplify" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS just pulled me back in.. 48 hours away and pops a nice little storm. Temps down this way much better than last storm. NAM has the storm to but has it much further north. Model Mayem continues. And I thought I would get some sleep over the next few nights. This hobby is exhausting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Its .3-.4 QPF... not sure where its coming from as i dont see any h5 energy nearby... WAA? .4-.5 for dc. Ghost vort ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I would say after the nice heavy rates tonight im satisfied. I am, but I love this hobby no matter how disappointing. Need a band leader? Bob chill said all in on 22, but he cant, he has nothing to put in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Your posts are way too wordy for the point you're trying to make.. Most people would not bothering reading.. Take that for what it's worth That is my style. I like to offer analysis and not just the final sound bite, and I appreciate when others do the same. I love when HM, Wes, Ian or several others offer lenghty insights into their thought process and how they analyze a situation. It gives more then just a forecast, but its a learning experience when they share that. THere is a place on here for quick comments but there is also a place for real discourse as well. The way I post is just my style, take it or leave it. I have no problem if anyone decides not to read my comments because they are too long but I am not going to offer less analysis because a few people do not like to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Upon second look it is "anafrontal" of sorts, a trailing lp to form and ride behind the cold front which will assist us with temps a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That is my style. I like to offer analysis and not just the final sound bite, and I appreciate when others do the same. I love when HM, Wes, Ian or several others offer lenghty insights into their thought process and how they analyze a situation. It gives more then just a forecast, but its a learning experience when they share that. THere is a place on here for quick comments but there is also a place for real discourse as well. The way I post is just my style, take it or leave it. I have no problem if anyone decides not to read my comments because they are too long but I am not going to offer less analysis because a few people do not like to read. I love your posting style. It has taught me a ton over the years and I for one appreciate it and hope you continue it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thanks, I am sure surface temps will screw us again though. its the strong Feb moon angle this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That is my style. I like to offer analysis and not just the final sound bite, and I appreciate when others do the same. I love when HM, Wes, Ian or several others offer lenghty insights into their thought process and how they analyze a situation. It gives more then just a forecast, but its a learning experience when they share that. THere is a place on here for quick comments but there is also a place for real discourse as well. The way I post is just my style, take it or leave it. I have no problem if anyone decides not to read my comments because they are too long but I am not going to offer less analysis because a few people do not like to read. You always have decent content I just think it can be communicated in fewer words, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I was kind of surprised that he was even predicting the event was going to be ice for us. Really? The whole thing can blow up at any time. We know this all too well. It's pretty late for a good ice storm around here. Not to mention we rarely have good ice storms anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 .4-.5 for dc. Ghost vort ftw! There is a vort over New England, and then the one that swings through 12 hours later and amplifies into the storm...perhaps the model is having trouble resolving things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's pretty late for a good ice storm around here. Not to mention we rarely have good ice storms anyway. Yep.. ice storm ain't happening in late Feb unless it's exclusively at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS is showing that look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I love your posting style. It has taught me a ton over the years and I for one appreciate it and hope you continue it. Thank you, what I love most about this board is what a collaborative and learning experience it is You always have decent content I just think it can be communicated in fewer words, IMO. I am too wordy at times, but again just my stype for better or worse. I think fuses are a little short right now given our run of luck, I really have no issues with anyone and don't want to clutter up this thread anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That ghost sys is weird.. tho who was saying things pop out of nowhere and work out sometimes. GFS sounding looks pretty good for DC.. flip to snow somewhere right after it starts probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 That ghost sys is weird.. tho who was saying things pop out of nowhere and work out sometimes. GFS sounding looks pretty good for DC.. flip to snow somewhere right after it starts probably. I was confused that a random 2-4 inches randomly pops up... maybe we get lucky... survey says we get nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That ghost sys is weird.. tho who was saying things pop out of nowhere and work out sometimes. GFS sounding looks pretty good for DC.. flip to snow somewhere right after it starts probably. That's how you know it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS is showing that look... of a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's how you know it's wrong. the whole thing looks weird. not sure why it's blowing up like that. vv's are wimpy then go to town in sw va and ride up over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If we are going to get snow this winter it will be from a fluke event that pops up like this, I think. Modeled events have been major busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the whole thing looks weird. not sure why it's blowing up like that. vv's are wimpy then go to town in sw va and ride up over us. GFS_3_2013021400_F54_VVELD_700_MB.png yeah, but the NAM has it too, albeit a hair west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ukie isn't bad either...but these types of events on the western wall of a big trough/temp gradient are very finicky. I would keep expectations low and then work from there. It can produce but has to be well timed. This last event produced some modest snow too for the interior...but marginal airmasses are tough. That one had a vortmax in good position, but trended a bit poorly, but still was enough for the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 As we get that storm further into pre truncation it keeps going further northwest. Still don't see the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Could be a historic tornado outbreak though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I would say after the nice heavy rates tonight im satisfied. I am, but I love this hobby no matter how disappointing. Need a band leader? Bob chill said all in on 22, but he cant, he has nothing to put in. I have some paper clips, m&ms, used trash bag, and some unopened mail. All in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I like that this is an event showing up only a few days out instead of teasing for days, only to crush our hopes. However, I won't really buy the phantom storm until it gets picked up with a bit more consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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