TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not a good look here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ehh, when we were in the nina type pattern for much of the winter I was not discouraged by lack of snow. It was just not going to snow, no real way to get it to in that pattern. But we are not in a particularly hostile pattern right now. Many of the pattern indices are actually favorable. True its not the best setup ever, its no Feb 2010, but all together I would say its a fairly conducive pattern going off the overall telleconnections. YET, when it comes to looking at the actual weather on the ground, getting snow down to the DC area seems like some herculean task. Even going into next week... the PAC isnt horrendous, its blah but not a disaster, the NAO is favorable, we have a 50/50 feature, and yet it just seems like getting snow down to our lattitude is like you would expect waiting for snow in Atlanta would be like. The lack of snow during this mostly favorable pattern, is getting to me way more then the lack of snow during the 2 years of hostile crap pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM trending nice for Saturrys night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DT's video about the Feb 22-23 timeframe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looking at this weekend, and analyzing the NAM (I know waste of time) we are stuck between 2 solutions. Right now, what seems very likely, is the first vort is going to go north of us, is flying along way too fast, and will develop a little too late to give us much of anything. But its development will impede the second peice of energy diving down the back side from amplifying. You can clearly see this on the NAM, it does get the second one going but its suppressed and squashed by the hostile environment left behind by the development of the first system. I am not even sure which way to root for this to go. I think there is a low end cap on the first vort. Its screaming along, has warm air in front of it, and is tracking to our north. I just dont see it turning into a major player for us. BUt perhaps with a bit more development we end up with a small event from that. ON the other hand the second vort is the one with blockbuster potential but seems a much longer shot to do anything at all right now. Either way, most likely solution is we get totaly fooked, first wave is too fast/north and the second one squashed by the first. We win again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Pretty active week on the models. This was the pattern and week I was referring to a couple weeks ago. LOL Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's though. I gave you guys my forecast through Feb.11 last Sunday. I will write a more indepth forecast and POP of the last 3 weeks on Monday or something. But it looks like Feb 11-13 will be another 5-10 degree warm up ahead of a S/W arriving the 14 or 15th with colder air behind it for Feb 15-17. Strat. analogs are showing 4 storms in a week and a half period for the second half of Feb. I'm waiting for more GWO data though before I confirm and jump on the bandwagon for such an active pattern. Although this would jive with the thoughts of a snowy pattern for the Plains/upper MS valley and the NE still ending up with about normal snowfall while at the same time having above normal temps for the month....just plenty of opportunities to score while getting screwed on others. Also like the high in the way at 140W. I think it will do a nice job of splitting this strong xt-RWT at 170W in to several pieces with pockets of energy slipping underneath and emerging as pulses along the southern jet that could possible end up phasing with their siblings that took the northern jet on the 21/22 time frame. Also marked out xt-RWT over Africa that I think will be a player come March 6/7 that matches up with a Mtn. torque event meaning colder air should be over the region. I think it could be a decent storm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DT makes some very good points, and I agree that if the block and 50/50 are there this is not going to cut, either the low to the lakes is wrong or the setup in eastern Canada is off. BUT....I have no confidence that its the Atlantic part of this equation that the models have right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DT makes some very good points, and I agree that if the block and 50/50 are there this is not going to cut, either the low to the lakes is wrong or the setup in eastern Canada is off. BUT....I have no confidence that its the Atlantic part of this equation that the models have right. I was kind of surprised that he was even predicting the event was going to be ice for us. Really? The whole thing can blow up at any time. We know this all too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wasn't he and Larry Cosgrove both calling for an arctic blast Feb 2-4 then changed to a torch and then dropped the ball on the blizzard LMAO. I know LC was for a fact b/c he debated me on it in a broadcast met group...SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Either way, most likely solution is we get totaly fooked, first wave is too fast/north and the second one squashed by the first. We win again Why not just post that instead of one of your usual 10 line diatribes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Why not just post that instead of one of your usual 10 line diatribes? because some people like intellectual discourse and logical analysis and not just mindless dribble PS: when I am skimming through these threads, I actually gravitate towards a post that has some content too it, not just a quick one liner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I was kind of surprised that he was even predicting the event was going to be ice for us. Really? The whole thing can blow up at any time. We know this all too well. I am not sure he is predicting "ice" for us. When he talks about VA and NC he usually means Richmond and Raleigh. It is hard to say what he "thinks" for our area since he mentions PA as being snow, and his area as an ice threat. Probably means snow to ice type thing for us. Either way its so far out its crazy to even give details like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Dribble? Clearly nothing intellectual to be found here I don't know what is worse, you reading posts that you find worthless, or then taking the time to post and complain about the posts you didn't have to read in the first place that you feel were a waste of your time, and then picking a fight with the person who is making those posts. I enjoy this, its a release for me. Just because I left the meterology field does not mean I have less passion for it and this board gives me the chance to satisfy the part of me that wishes I had stayed in meterology. I also love to debate things, I even coach debate at my school. So this is fun for me, I enjoy this community, and generally like reading what others have to say and hopefully contributing to it as well. Why you would continue to read posts of your own free will that apparently you find no value in and that annoy you, then waste more of your time complaining about, and trying to censor the author of said posts...is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wasn't he and Larry Cosgrove both calling for an arctic blast Feb 2-4 then changed to a torch and then dropped the ball on the blizzard LMAO. I know LC was for a fact b/c he debated me on it in a broadcast met group...SMH Cosgrove is horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS, lol ah darnit does that mean I have to go look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS, lol Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ah darnit does that mean I have to go look yeah, 57-63 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS, lol I am on my phone and my eyes are bleeding, what is the lol?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't know what is worse, you reading posts that you find worthless, or then taking the time to post and complain about the posts you didn't have to read in the first place that you feel were a waste of your time, and then picking a fight with the person who is making those posts. I enjoy this, its a release for me. Just because I left the meterology field does not mean I have less passion for it and this board gives me the chance to satisfy the part of me that wishes I had stayed in meterology. I also love to debate things, I even coach debate at my school. So this is fun for me, I enjoy this community, and generally like reading what others have to say and hopefully contributing to it as well. Why you would continue to read posts of your own free will that apparently you find no value in and that annoy you, then waste more of your time complaining about, and trying to censor the author of said posts...is beyond me. Your posts are way too wordy for the point you're trying to make.. Most people would not bothering reading.. Take that for what it's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nice! This period may need to be watched more carefully. NAM is different, UK is different than NAM...GFS is different than both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I am on my phone and my eyes are bleeding, what is the lol?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I am on my phone and my eyes are bleeding, what is the lol?. It shows 2 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It shows 2 ft Nice try Randy beat you to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Your posts are way too wordy for the point you're trying to make.. Most people would not bothering reading.. Take that for what it's worth I dont. Paragraphs are real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I am on my phone and my eyes are bleeding, what is the lol?. Thanks, I am sure surface temps will screw us again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This period may need to be watched more carefully. NAM is different, UK is different than NAM...GFS is different than both. The trough is sharp.. the ASCII index is high 12500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 . This period may need to be watched more carefully. NAM is different, UK is different than NAM...GFS is different than both. Yea Nam had it further north with a good hit on PA it would be nice to have the GFS verify for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thanks, I am sure surface temps will screw us again though. That was teh 2m surface temp map Randy posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So? to point it simply according to DT, either the -NAO and 50/50 low placement are incorrect, or the 22nd low placement is incorrect and we'll just have to wait and see which one changes first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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