Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Has to be dca DCA? DCA didn't even get 6 in the 93 superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's what the 06Z NAVGEM says about this weekend's storm. The NAVGEM is the replacement to the NOGAPS, and runs at the same resolution as the GFS. The NAMGEM will replace the NOGAPS operationally on March 13th after this period of diagnostics and testing. Sweet! All-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I just guaranteed this storm on my Facebook page or I'm shutting it down. Too stressful to give bad news all the time although Wes likes doing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I just guaranteed this storm on my Facebook page or I'm shutting it down. Too stressful to give bad news all the time although Wes likes doing it Matt will be distraught to lose his biggest competitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Matt will be distraught to lose his biggest competitor. ill tell all my followers to follow his page. I get too emotional. I am have preaching the VD storm since Feb 2 and i was determined to see it go through. Even called 2-4 inches 2 days ago in the colder suburbs. I had to punt last night and it sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ill tell all my followers to follow his page. I get too emotional. I am have preaching the VD storm since Feb 2 and i was determined to see it go through. Even called 2-4 inches 2 days ago in the colder suburbs. I had to punt last night and it sucked No. Really? You? I don't think anyone had ever noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ill tell all my followers to follow his page. I get too emotional. I am have preaching the VD storm since Feb 2 and i was determined to see it go through. Even called 2-4 inches 2 days ago in the colder suburbs. I had to punt last night and it sucked What are you going to do if the colder burbs get 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ill tell all my followers to follow his page. I get too emotional. I am have preaching the VD storm since Feb 2 and i was determined to see it go through. Even called 2-4 inches 2 days ago in the colder suburbs. I had to punt last night and it sucked You get to emotionally invested in these storms and you make calls that you would not rationally do otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What are you going to do if the colder burbs get 2-4? Tell them that Ray Guy had his first blocked punt of his career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro ens mean looks like the op except for making more sense. Like 1-3" in the front end instead of 4-8". This is for the d9 storm that isn't going to happen like this anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I will admit...18z at 183 is looking ridiculous. BUt it'll go poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 guess i havent seen enough storms here.. hard to get excited about a big fat vort going negative over nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro ens mean looks like the op except for making more sense. Like 1-3" in the front end instead of 4-8". This is for the d9 storm that isn't going to happen like this anyway. I haven't seen the Euro of course, but the setup on this 18z run of the GFS, a storm that tries to cut and can't, is a setup that's pretty dependable for a good "winter" storm, more so for my area than for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I haven't seen the Euro of course, but the setup on this 18z run of the GFS, a storm that tries to cut and can't, is a setup that's pretty dependable for a good "winter" storm, more so for my area than for you. If you saw the euro you would would be running naked down your street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If you saw the euro you would would be running naked down your street Though he is an optimist, doubt he'd celebrate his 10+ with front end/coastal on a 216+ prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 guess i havent seen enough storms here.. hard to get excited about a big fat vort going negative over nebraska There are other things on that map that should probably tell you that that vort isn't going much farther north...if that map were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 it sucks that climatology is no longer a useful tool....we could probably go the next 10 winters averaging 2" if we dont get a nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If you saw the euro you would would be running naked down your street Bob, you've become quite the comedian lately. I'm not running naked anywhere, for any reason. But if I get a big snow, drunk is always an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 There are other things on that map that should probably tell you that that vort isn't going much farther north...if that map were right. Yeah. Maybe I'm just confused by mant running big as usual. Could definitely see it end up way east initially before jump etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yeah. Maybe I'm just confused by mant running big as usual. Could definitely see it end up way east initially before jump etc. Doesn't matter, we're fooked anyway. We both know it'll look nothing like that in about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not a good look here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ehh, when we were in the nina type pattern for much of the winter I was not discouraged by lack of snow. It was just not going to snow, no real way to get it to in that pattern. But we are not in a particularly hostile pattern right now. Many of the pattern indices are actually favorable. True its not the best setup ever, its no Feb 2010, but all together I would say its a fairly conducive pattern going off the overall telleconnections. YET, when it comes to looking at the actual weather on the ground, getting snow down to the DC area seems like some herculean task. Even going into next week... the PAC isnt horrendous, its blah but not a disaster, the NAO is favorable, we have a 50/50 feature, and yet it just seems like getting snow down to our lattitude is like you would expect waiting for snow in Atlanta would be like. The lack of snow during this mostly favorable pattern, is getting to me way more then the lack of snow during the 2 years of hostile crap pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM trending nice for Saturrys night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DT's video about the Feb 22-23 timeframe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looking at this weekend, and analyzing the NAM (I know waste of time) we are stuck between 2 solutions. Right now, what seems very likely, is the first vort is going to go north of us, is flying along way too fast, and will develop a little too late to give us much of anything. But its development will impede the second peice of energy diving down the back side from amplifying. You can clearly see this on the NAM, it does get the second one going but its suppressed and squashed by the hostile environment left behind by the development of the first system. I am not even sure which way to root for this to go. I think there is a low end cap on the first vort. Its screaming along, has warm air in front of it, and is tracking to our north. I just dont see it turning into a major player for us. BUt perhaps with a bit more development we end up with a small event from that. ON the other hand the second vort is the one with blockbuster potential but seems a much longer shot to do anything at all right now. Either way, most likely solution is we get totaly fooked, first wave is too fast/north and the second one squashed by the first. We win again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Pretty active week on the models. This was the pattern and week I was referring to a couple weeks ago. LOL Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's though. I gave you guys my forecast through Feb.11 last Sunday. I will write a more indepth forecast and POP of the last 3 weeks on Monday or something. But it looks like Feb 11-13 will be another 5-10 degree warm up ahead of a S/W arriving the 14 or 15th with colder air behind it for Feb 15-17. Strat. analogs are showing 4 storms in a week and a half period for the second half of Feb. I'm waiting for more GWO data though before I confirm and jump on the bandwagon for such an active pattern. Although this would jive with the thoughts of a snowy pattern for the Plains/upper MS valley and the NE still ending up with about normal snowfall while at the same time having above normal temps for the month....just plenty of opportunities to score while getting screwed on others. Also like the high in the way at 140W. I think it will do a nice job of splitting this strong xt-RWT at 170W in to several pieces with pockets of energy slipping underneath and emerging as pulses along the southern jet that could possible end up phasing with their siblings that took the northern jet on the 21/22 time frame. Also marked out xt-RWT over Africa that I think will be a player come March 6/7 that matches up with a Mtn. torque event meaning colder air should be over the region. I think it could be a decent storm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DT makes some very good points, and I agree that if the block and 50/50 are there this is not going to cut, either the low to the lakes is wrong or the setup in eastern Canada is off. BUT....I have no confidence that its the Atlantic part of this equation that the models have right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DT makes some very good points, and I agree that if the block and 50/50 are there this is not going to cut, either the low to the lakes is wrong or the setup in eastern Canada is off. BUT....I have no confidence that its the Atlantic part of this equation that the models have right. I was kind of surprised that he was even predicting the event was going to be ice for us. Really? The whole thing can blow up at any time. We know this all too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wasn't he and Larry Cosgrove both calling for an arctic blast Feb 2-4 then changed to a torch and then dropped the ball on the blizzard LMAO. I know LC was for a fact b/c he debated me on it in a broadcast met group...SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Either way, most likely solution is we get totaly fooked, first wave is too fast/north and the second one squashed by the first. We win again Why not just post that instead of one of your usual 10 line diatribes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.