FrederickWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 2" Usually in the crappy winters we eek out a fluke at some point or at least one 3" event...which may not make it a fluke I guess March 99 Feb 06 (though we did have some good snow 11/23 - 12/15) March 09 Feb 95 January 02 December 07 It is actually pretty hard for us to get <4".....which has kind of kept me hopeful...obviously peristence is a b**ch...68-69, one of my analogs, is actually not bad in some ways....same thing that year....2 KU's for 40N in FEB and we had 2" going into March where we then got a couple storms and ended up with 9"...There are 4 things still keeping me hopeful 1) Pattern is not that hostile going forward 2) Climo says it is really hard to get 2" seasonal 3) Analogs suggested a decent end of season 4) Wishcasting, figuring if I am delusional it is only for another month and then I can recover I would also imagine that climo says it is really hard to get 2" of snow, two winters in a row. Next week seems like a good window for something, but given how things have gone this winter, it's hard to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 We have to start paying attention to the GGEM I suppose... 4DVAR and better resolution. What about the NAVGEM NOVAforecaster was talking about? It's a real thing, when does the switch occur? models are always being upgraded and tweaked, so are the US models. NAM is due for an upgrade soon, not sure about the GFS. Either way, until the upgrades go operational and we have verification scores to show it, I am skeptical of any "major leap" in accuracy from these marginal models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 there are a number of ways to spin it to work for or against us...I'd be more worried we were turning into Richmond if I didnt get 68" of snow 3 years ago.... I am far from an expert, but it just seems like recently we get very few of the small storms that we used to get here all the time when i was a kid. The good news is it seems like the larger and KU storms will be much more frequent than in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 there are a number of ways to spin it to work for or against us...I'd be more worried we were turning into Richmond if I didnt get 68" of snow 3 years ago.... You would have to think that that we're due for a good winter in at least one of the next two or three winters. And by good, I mean average (which would be good after last winter and this). It's interesting that we've had two abysmal winters in a row, but with fairly different patterns. This year we haven't had the persistent GOA low (and Nina) which in part gave us the incredibly warm winter and spring last year. We've had a few windows with colder air this winter, that we didn't have last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 most of us don't use them properly anyway sometimes the upgrades make it harder for me to use them as an effective tool for a while. No matter how good, none of them are going to be perfect. After a while I can get a feel for how the various guidance handles different situations and then how to correct for those issues. When they go and "correct" things, it can throw off my feel for how the model is behaving. I am sure the pro mets are able to stay current on all the changes and bias modifications but sometimes I am not, and thus learn from trial and error. Consistency is just as important to me as accuracy. If a model is wrong, but is always wrong in the same general way, it can be a useful tool. If it is inconsistent in how it is wrong, then it can be darn near useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 FWIW...NAM has rain/snow Friday and Friday night..lol lol- it's been juicin up last few runs. psu should like it. he's close to the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 lol- it's been juicin up last few runs. psu should like it. he's close to the jackpot nam'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 nam'ed staying up for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 LWX concurs with possible flake scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's what the 06Z NAVGEM says about this weekend's storm. The NAVGEM is the replacement to the NOGAPS, and runs at the same resolution as the GFS. The NAMGEM will replace the NOGAPS operationally on March 13th after this period of diagnostics and testing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 FWIW...NAM has rain/snow Friday and Friday night..lol EDIT - I guess the GFS does too.... The surface temp at 54 hrs on the NAM is 7.8C so it's going to have to occur at night behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Has to be dca DCA? DCA didn't even get 6 in the 93 superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's what the 06Z NAVGEM says about this weekend's storm. The NAVGEM is the replacement to the NOGAPS, and runs at the same resolution as the GFS. The NAMGEM will replace the NOGAPS operationally on March 13th after this period of diagnostics and testing. Sweet! All-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I just guaranteed this storm on my Facebook page or I'm shutting it down. Too stressful to give bad news all the time although Wes likes doing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I just guaranteed this storm on my Facebook page or I'm shutting it down. Too stressful to give bad news all the time although Wes likes doing it Matt will be distraught to lose his biggest competitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Matt will be distraught to lose his biggest competitor. ill tell all my followers to follow his page. I get too emotional. I am have preaching the VD storm since Feb 2 and i was determined to see it go through. Even called 2-4 inches 2 days ago in the colder suburbs. I had to punt last night and it sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ill tell all my followers to follow his page. I get too emotional. I am have preaching the VD storm since Feb 2 and i was determined to see it go through. Even called 2-4 inches 2 days ago in the colder suburbs. I had to punt last night and it sucked No. Really? You? I don't think anyone had ever noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ill tell all my followers to follow his page. I get too emotional. I am have preaching the VD storm since Feb 2 and i was determined to see it go through. Even called 2-4 inches 2 days ago in the colder suburbs. I had to punt last night and it sucked What are you going to do if the colder burbs get 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ill tell all my followers to follow his page. I get too emotional. I am have preaching the VD storm since Feb 2 and i was determined to see it go through. Even called 2-4 inches 2 days ago in the colder suburbs. I had to punt last night and it sucked You get to emotionally invested in these storms and you make calls that you would not rationally do otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What are you going to do if the colder burbs get 2-4? Tell them that Ray Guy had his first blocked punt of his career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro ens mean looks like the op except for making more sense. Like 1-3" in the front end instead of 4-8". This is for the d9 storm that isn't going to happen like this anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I will admit...18z at 183 is looking ridiculous. BUt it'll go poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 guess i havent seen enough storms here.. hard to get excited about a big fat vort going negative over nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro ens mean looks like the op except for making more sense. Like 1-3" in the front end instead of 4-8". This is for the d9 storm that isn't going to happen like this anyway. I haven't seen the Euro of course, but the setup on this 18z run of the GFS, a storm that tries to cut and can't, is a setup that's pretty dependable for a good "winter" storm, more so for my area than for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I haven't seen the Euro of course, but the setup on this 18z run of the GFS, a storm that tries to cut and can't, is a setup that's pretty dependable for a good "winter" storm, more so for my area than for you. If you saw the euro you would would be running naked down your street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If you saw the euro you would would be running naked down your street Though he is an optimist, doubt he'd celebrate his 10+ with front end/coastal on a 216+ prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 guess i havent seen enough storms here.. hard to get excited about a big fat vort going negative over nebraska There are other things on that map that should probably tell you that that vort isn't going much farther north...if that map were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If you saw the euro you would would be running naked down your street Bob, you've become quite the comedian lately. I'm not running naked anywhere, for any reason. But if I get a big snow, drunk is always an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 There are other things on that map that should probably tell you that that vort isn't going much farther north...if that map were right. Yeah. Maybe I'm just confused by mant running big as usual. Could definitely see it end up way east initially before jump etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yeah. Maybe I'm just confused by mant running big as usual. Could definitely see it end up way east initially before jump etc. Doesn't matter, we're fooked anyway. We both know it'll look nothing like that in about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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