Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 snow maps are going to make some people run naked. I can't tell for sure but the first half of the precip is all snow at least. LOL streak over! I think I would prefer this run over a miller b. im giving this run a 1% chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Congrats, Madison. (am I doing it right?) Yes you are. Madison just happens to be the same city that the Euro had the Christmas storm located in too. Euro programmers must live in the Badger State. See, I know how to do it too. Congrats us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 we got a 5 inch dump from a similar chicago storm a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 'copter. Poor devils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 im giving this run a 1% chance of verifying bullish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 im giving this run a 1% chance of verifying That high? I'm willing to bet my tag on this. If we get a major (6+) on the 22nd, I will swap tags with Ji for 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Like the GFS miracle snow cutter from yday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 That high? I'm willing to bet my tag on this. If we get a major (6+) on the 22nd, I will swap tags with Ji for 24 hours. i should of been a MOD a long time ago especially since i led the migration from TWC boards to Wright Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 we got a 5 inch dump from a similar chicago storm a few years ago better to go that far west than closer probably. except precip might be overdone and im not sure why we stay that cold. the high is nice but it's pretty far north and shifts east with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 We have to start paying attention to the GGEM I suppose... 4DVAR and better resolution. What about the NAVGEM NOVAforecaster was talking about? It's a real thing, when does the switch occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm going to have to wait at least one more run before breaking out the laser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 That high? I'm willing to bet my tag on this. If we get a major (6+) on the 22nd, I will swap tags with Ji for 24 hours. Now let's get the fine details of this deal. This would be an all time great, i would probably stay on the board for 24 hours straight. So if where you and Ian live gets 6" than Ji will be an Admin for a day?. Of course it has to be your house not DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Now let's get the fine details of this deal. This would be an all time great, i would probably stay on the board for 24 hours straight. So if where you and Ian live gets 6" than Ji will be an Admin for a day?. Of course it has to be your house not DCA. Has to be dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 'copter. Poor devils. see your earlier list. just hit repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Has to be dca Mt Pleasant will be 6.2", Old Town at 6.4" and DCA will be 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Has to be dca Now that is cheating, you know we need a 1 foot storm for DCA to measure 6". I see your not that confident that we will not get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 2" Usually in the crappy winters we eek out a fluke at some point or at least one 3" event...which may not make it a fluke I guess March 99 Feb 06 (though we did have some good snow 11/23 - 12/15) March 09 Feb 95 January 02 December 07 It is actually pretty hard for us to get <4".....which has kind of kept me hopeful...obviously peristence is a b**ch...68-69, one of my analogs, is actually not bad in some ways....same thing that year....2 KU's for 40N in FEB and we had 2" going into March where we then got a couple storms and ended up with 9"...There are 4 things still keeping me hopeful 1) Pattern is not that hostile going forward 2) Climo says it is really hard to get 2" seasonal 3) Analogs suggested a decent end of season 4) Wishcasting, figuring if I am delusional it is only for another month and then I can recover I would also imagine that climo says it is really hard to get 2" of snow, two winters in a row. Next week seems like a good window for something, but given how things have gone this winter, it's hard to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 We have to start paying attention to the GGEM I suppose... 4DVAR and better resolution. What about the NAVGEM NOVAforecaster was talking about? It's a real thing, when does the switch occur? models are always being upgraded and tweaked, so are the US models. NAM is due for an upgrade soon, not sure about the GFS. Either way, until the upgrades go operational and we have verification scores to show it, I am skeptical of any "major leap" in accuracy from these marginal models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I would also imagine that climo says it is really hard to get 2" of snow, two winters in a row. Next week seems like a good window for something, but given how things have gone this winter, it's hard to be optimistic. there are a number of ways to spin it to work for or against us...I'd be more worried we were turning into Richmond if I didnt get 68" of snow 3 years ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 models are always being upgraded and tweaked, so are the US models. NAM is due for an upgrade soon, not sure about the GFS. Either way, until the upgrades go operational and we have verification scores to show it, I am skeptical of any "major leap" in accuracy from these marginal models. most of us don't use them properly anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 there are a number of ways to spin it to work for or against us...I'd be more worried we were turning into Richmond if I didnt get 68" of snow 3 years ago.... I am far from an expert, but it just seems like recently we get very few of the small storms that we used to get here all the time when i was a kid. The good news is it seems like the larger and KU storms will be much more frequent than in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 there are a number of ways to spin it to work for or against us...I'd be more worried we were turning into Richmond if I didnt get 68" of snow 3 years ago.... You would have to think that that we're due for a good winter in at least one of the next two or three winters. And by good, I mean average (which would be good after last winter and this). It's interesting that we've had two abysmal winters in a row, but with fairly different patterns. This year we haven't had the persistent GOA low (and Nina) which in part gave us the incredibly warm winter and spring last year. We've had a few windows with colder air this winter, that we didn't have last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 most of us don't use them properly anyway sometimes the upgrades make it harder for me to use them as an effective tool for a while. No matter how good, none of them are going to be perfect. After a while I can get a feel for how the various guidance handles different situations and then how to correct for those issues. When they go and "correct" things, it can throw off my feel for how the model is behaving. I am sure the pro mets are able to stay current on all the changes and bias modifications but sometimes I am not, and thus learn from trial and error. Consistency is just as important to me as accuracy. If a model is wrong, but is always wrong in the same general way, it can be a useful tool. If it is inconsistent in how it is wrong, then it can be darn near useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 FWIW...NAM has rain/snow Friday and Friday night..lol EDIT - I guess the GFS does too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 FWIW...NAM has rain/snow Friday and Friday night..lol lol- it's been juicin up last few runs. psu should like it. he's close to the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 lol- it's been juicin up last few runs. psu should like it. he's close to the jackpot nam'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 nam'ed staying up for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 LWX concurs with possible flake scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's what the 06Z NAVGEM says about this weekend's storm. The NAVGEM is the replacement to the NOGAPS, and runs at the same resolution as the GFS. The NAMGEM will replace the NOGAPS operationally on March 13th after this period of diagnostics and testing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 FWIW...NAM has rain/snow Friday and Friday night..lol EDIT - I guess the GFS does too.... The surface temp at 54 hrs on the NAM is 7.8C so it's going to have to occur at night behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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