usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 everyone knows this is going to be another dc split to SNE HECS. next. That's what I fear. It does look like the storm should track to at least the OH valley before reforming and despite Ji's protests, if the models have a solution it is not meteorologically impossibly. We're talking 9 days out, lots of solutions are still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What was the measured snow total for DCA last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What was the measured snow total for DCA last winter? -4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 How'd that work out 2 months ago? 2 months ago was such a fake "block" though. There was 0 cold air in canada to block up and it was essentially above normal heights in eastern canada that gave the appearance of a -nao..those waves gladly amplified and cut into the midwest as a result. This is quite different as it looks like we are building a legitimate -nao here with better cold air to situate in se canada. There is a very nice signal for strong high in se canada too ahead of the friday potential system. With that being said, it is DC and somethign can always go wrong.. I agree completely with Wes here as far as his thoughts go for the region. Really impressive signal this far out for a major winter storm affecting a large area of the country late next week...hopefully the mid-atl can end up on the good side of it, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Terminologically, metaphysically, psychadelically, impossible. We might have some new words to replace the currently trendy "punt". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What was the measured snow total for DCA last winter? 2" Usually in the crappy winters we eek out a fluke at some point or at least one 3" event...which may not make it a fluke I guess March 99 Feb 06 (though we did have some good snow 11/23 - 12/15) March 09 Feb 95 January 02 December 07 It is actually pretty hard for us to get <4".....which has kind of kept me hopeful...obviously peristence is a b**ch...68-69, one of my analogs, is actually not bad in some ways....same thing that year....2 KU's for 40N in FEB and we had 2" going into March where we then got a couple storms and ended up with 9"...There are 4 things still keeping me hopeful 1) Pattern is not that hostile going forward 2) Climo says it is really hard to get 2" seasonal 3) Analogs suggested a decent end of season 4) Wishcasting, figuring if I am delusional it is only for another month and then I can recover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 2 months ago was such a fake "block" though. There was 0 cold air in canada to block up and it was essentially above normal heights in eastern canada that gave the appearance of a -nao..those waves gladly amplified and cut into the midwest as a result. This is quite different as it looks like we are building a legitimate -nao here with better cold air to situate in se canada. There is a very nice signal for strong high in se canada too ahead of the friday potential system. With that being said, it is DC and somethign can always go wrong.. I agree completely with Wes here as far as his thoughts go for the region. Really impressive signal this far out for a major winter storm affecting a large area of the country late next week...hopefully the mid-atl can end up on the good side of it, but we'll see. 3 of the 4 analogs that offered snow were 2 inches or less which makes me think the snows were mostly miller bs, I'm guessing the 5 non snow analog periods featured cutters of some sort, sort of like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Whenever I hear the term "meteorologically impossible" floating around here, I always think of Dan Dierdork and his overuse of the word "cerebral." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Watch this threat for next week end up being rain for I-95 and 2 feet in the mountains... That would just go to show how winter goes around here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just read this on twitter from Bastardi. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi JMA/UKMET has the east coast snowstorm on weekend.. CMON ecmwf, will ya. Fla freeze threat too,but the bigger the ne storm, less the chc Seriously? Anyone see the JMA or UKMET to confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just read this on twitter from Bastardi. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi JMA/UKMET has the east coast snowstorm on weekend.. CMON ecmwf, will ya. Fla freeze threat too,but the bigger the ne storm, less the chc Seriously? Anyone see the JMA or UKMET to confirm? JMA @ 96. First purple is .50. And with the jma that means .05. Gotta add a decimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And jb should be ashamed of himself using ukmet/jma in the same sentence without gfs/euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If the Euro goes for a storm this weekend we should be hearing from Matt, Ian or Midlo shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If the Euro goes for a storm this weekend we should be hearing from Matt, Ian or Midlo shortly. you won't hear from them. Practically not a single drop of precip in the entire conus @ 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And jb should be ashamed of himself using ukmet/jma in the same sentence without gfs/euro. He was rooting for the EURO to come on board. I doubt it happens, but we can all dream still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 you won't hear from them. Practically not a single drop of precip in the entire conus @ 84. So you get the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And jb should be ashamed of himself using ukmet/jma in the same sentence without gfs/euro. The man who uses the Brazilian meteogram and Korean model for support should be ashamed about using the JMA and Ukmet? Surely you jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So you get the euro? Yea, I tried not to. I really did. But I have problems. I grabbed sv for a bit. I'll jump out and probably get it again come Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea, I tried not to. I really did. But I have problems. I grabbed sv for a bit. I'll jump out and probably get it again come Nov How much is SV per month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 JMA @ 96. First purple is .50. And with the jma that means .05. Gotta add a decimal. jma96.JPG thats not the right map dude Here is the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yea, I tried not to. I really did. But I have problems. I grabbed sv for a bit. I'll jump out and probably get it again come Nov Well atleast with sv you get the maps right away. I have to wait another 45 minutes or so with Accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 How much is SV per month? 30 bucks but you can join/cancel at will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 CWG should pay for your euro Wes. I can talk to Jason if you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 thats not the right map dude Here is the map I grabbed 96. That's 72. Pretty colors. Kinda like a comic book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well atleast with sv you get the maps right away. I have to wait another 45 minutes or so with Accuweather. The funny thing is accu has 500 vorticity (prob my favorite panel) and sv doesn't. SV has pretty good 850 / 500 maps though. Easy on the eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I grabbed 96. That's 72. Pretty colors. Kinda like a comic book. but 96 is not updated. Thats showing todays date! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 thats not the right map dude Here is the map That weak surface low gives that much precip? very odd looking map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 but 96 is not updated. Thats showing todays date! Shows you how much I care about the jma. If the euro/gfs showed a storm within 1000 miles of us that isn't out to sea I would be more interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 That weak surface low gives that much precip? very odd looking map. You forgot to apply the JMA QPF conversion - .0005 reality for every .5 it spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You forgot to apply the JMA QPF conversion - .0005 reality for every .5 it spits out. That's probably because I never look at it and wasn't aware of how much of bias it has. That's gonna screw up other things as well unless the all the precip is the result of a simple coding error that doesn't impact latent heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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