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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

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its terminologically impossible for the low to go that far north with the 550 heights over Greenland...and the blocking to the south of it.

 

gfs_namer_216_500_vort_ht.gif

 

so the primary will run to our west sending us a nice dry slot as a secondary forms and clobbers boston.

 

let's focus on the feb 30 storm. 

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I'm not going to get too wrapped up in any threat until we are close an there is some good model agreement and even then bust potential is high..models havent been very good with forecasting actual storm occurrences...just threat windows....my attitude is we have 3 weeks  - month to get accumulating snow in the city and immediate burbs...either it happens or it doesn't....

Totally agree--threats are there, but details are obviously far from clear.  This place is going to be hard to follow for the next few days.

 

MDstorm

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everyone knows this is going to be another dc split to SNE HECS.

 

next.

 

That's what I fear.  It does look like the storm should track to at least the OH valley before reforming and despite Ji's protests, if the models have a solution it is not meteorologically impossibly.  We're talking 9 days out,  lots of solutions are still possible. 

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How'd that work out 2 months ago?

2 months ago was such a fake "block" though. There was 0 cold air in canada to block up and it was essentially above normal heights in eastern canada that gave the appearance of a -nao..those waves gladly amplified and cut into the midwest as a result. This is quite different as it looks like we are building a legitimate -nao here with better cold air to situate in se canada. There is a very nice signal for strong high in se canada too ahead of the friday potential system. With that being said, it is DC and somethign can always go wrong.. I agree completely with Wes here as far as his thoughts go for the region.

 

Really impressive signal this far out for a major winter storm affecting a large area of the country late next week...hopefully the mid-atl can end up on the good side of it, but we'll see.

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2 months ago was such a fake "block" though. There was 0 cold air in canada to block up and it was essentially above normal heights in eastern canada that gave the appearance of a -nao..those waves gladly amplified and cut into the midwest as a result. This is quite different as it looks like we are building a legitimate -nao here with better cold air to situate in se canada. There is a very nice signal for strong high in se canada too ahead of the friday potential system. With that being said, it is DC and somethign can always go wrong.. I agree completely with Wes here as far as his thoughts go for the region.

 

Really impressive signal this far out for a major winter storm affecting a large area of the country late next week...hopefully the mid-atl can end up on the good side of it, but we'll see.

 

 

3 of the 4 analogs that offered snow were 2 inches or less which makes me think the snows were mostly miller bs, I'm guessing the 5 non snow analog periods featured cutters of some sort, sort of like the GFS. 

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Just read this on twitter from Bastardi.

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

JMA/UKMET has the east coast snowstorm on weekend.. CMON ecmwf, will ya. Fla freeze threat too,but the bigger the ne storm, less the chc

 

Seriously?  Anyone see the JMA or UKMET to confirm?

 

 

JMA @ 96. First purple is .50. And with the jma that means .05. Gotta add a decimal. 

 

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