Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Which KU are you talking about? The 100% certain PD3 or the Feb 22? did i really 100 % guarantee pd3? I think i did right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 did i really 100 % guarantee pd3? I think i did right? is was psu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Feb 22 is a lock. 100% guarantee. See, anyone can do it. 22nd is my BDay and the last semi significant snow I can remember falling on that day was in the early 70's. Of course I am going semi senile so I may be misremembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 First call for PD3's cousin DCA-T Jyo-2 Bwi 1 Dover 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Now that I am done feeling sorry for myself about tonight this is where my thoughts are on probably our last 2 legit threats this winter. PD3: I have not given up on this yet. Looking at what has changed since the models had a more amplified solution, they were keying on the vort diving down the back side of the trough a few days ago. Since then, they are picking up on the front running vort that comes across the lakes. They are putting everything into that and squashing everything behind it. It is very likely that is true, and the first vort is messing everything up and takes just enough energy and pulls the trough east and we are screwed BUT its not set in stone. I still think that once models resolve the final soution with the first vort, and the energy for the second gets into better sampling areas there is a shot suddenly we see a storm appear again on the progs. The weak POS thing on the GFS right now is NOT the same storm that we were looking at days ago. It is the front runner, its the back side energy that could be our storm a day later. The euro last night was not totally too far away from what we would need. It was a step in the right direction. It at least sees the second vort and amplifies it, just too far SE. Feb 22: This one is really simple. The trough axis sucks and goes neutral way too early, so it comes down to one factor. Does the cutter on the 20th become a 50/50 and enforce the -NAO block. If it does, this is a real threat. The h5 track sucks, goes to our north, HOWEVER, if you look at the exceptions to the rule on how you can get a significant snow event into the DC area with a H5 track like that, this is it. WE would not do as well as places to our north...the HUGE snow totals would be PA north, but DC can get a nice thump snow then go to ice/dryslot in this situation. The 50/50 & -NAO have to be modeled correctly though, and that is also dependent on that lakes cutter bombing out to our northeast. If, and ONLY if they are right about that evolution, then this is a real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 did i really 100 % guarantee pd3? I think i did right? Don't give up the ship yet with PD3. We still have 3 days for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 get on the bus Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH132.gif now that is a storm signal Yes, it sure looks very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 is was psu huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Best post in Americanwx history . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 huh? i guarenteed it...then i gave up on it...and then psu guaranteed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Best post in Americanwx history . not true at all...you should of seem some of mine in early 2000's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 our KU storm is going to be a KU...very energetic southern stream and a 1040 high barreling down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 huh? Just razzin ya. I don't think worry about the miller b / midwest bowling ball outcome is even worth it. You can already see 12z is thinking a whole different thing @ 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 PD3 you made me look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 if this storm is there pre truncation...I am in 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 our KU storm is going to be a KU...very energetic southern stream and a 1040 high barreling down you need a tranquilizer to the face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks great for the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 not true at all...you should of seem some of mine in early 2000's Well seeing as Americanwx is only a little more than 2 years old, i don't think that includes the early 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks great for the 22nd. still not seeing it. that 500 pattern over the CONUS isn't giving us a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks great for the 22nd. If you like storms over Michigan. Total cutter. Called it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 still not seeing it. that 500 pattern over the CONUS isn't giving us a snowstorm. It is amazing we are discussing a day 9 threat seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 no way that ULL would go that far north with the blocking. Euro is much more south than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If you like storms over Michigan. Total cutter. Called it! Yes, I wrote with extreme sarcasm. To be honest, who really cares what it shows for 9 days. Does anyone think it will actually be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 no way that ULL would go that far north with the blocking. Euro is much more south than this the atlantic is pretty decent so it might get the old shunt south but we need a lot of work on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 no way that ULL would go that far north with the blocking. We had this discussion back in December. Didn't work out then, won't work out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 everyone knows this is going to be another dc split to SNE HECS. next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 the atlantic is pretty decent so it might get the old shunt south but we need a lot of work on the gfs. Funny you said that, I was just thinking it wouldn't take much. And, for those who like torture, there's another spark later in the run. Seriously, we are still in a time period where we could rack up some big snow totals in a hurry. I'm just running out of energy. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. thanks deb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 its meteorologicaly impossible for the low to go that far north with the 550 heights over Greenland...and the blocking to the south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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