Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 2:36 PM, Bob Chill said: Euro has been pretty bad across the board with the current system. Yea, nam/gfs went nuts with precip but they did much better @ 500 and with precip and have been much more consistent. Last night's euro has dc is a precip hole. Zero precip. It's never had precip anywhere in our area with much more than .1. When you have a spread in solutions the smart play is to go in between. That's been the standard for as long as I've been on the boards. Even with that, it looks like gfs/nam get the nod here. I hear ya Mr. Chill. Ultimately, the answer typically lies somewhere down the middle of all guidance. That was just my frustrations coming out with the usual model mayhem. Anyway, keep up the great analysis. You and many others here do a fine job even in our losing situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 12:35 PM, WxUSAF said: at the signal on the ensembles for Feb 21-22. Don't usually see something so concrete at Day 9-10 on the ensembles, particularly the GFS. But repeat after me...I will NOT get sucked in...I will NOT get sucked in... like I said a few days ago in another thread, I am supposed to fly to LA morning of 22nd with my wife for a belated 20th anniversary celebration, the rare no-kids trip. You can probably book a BECS to mess up this dealie. You all are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 2:49 PM, NE Balti Zen said: like I said a few days ago in another thread, I am supposed to fly to LA morning of 22nd with my wife for a belated 20th anniversary celebration, the rare no-kids trip. You can probably book a BECS to mess up this dealie. You all are welcome. Weird I'm going to la with wife feb 23 in morning. I hope storm is not delayed or I'm screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 2:51 PM, Ji said: Weird I'm going to la with wife feb 23 in morning. I hope storm is not delayed or I'm screwed Oh god. That's not good. Probably means some sort of earthquake for LA and end times storm here, screwing you and I on both coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 2:15 PM, Ian said: So far every long range window has missed here. In gambling you end up winning every now and then.. We are due? Yes we are due!!! Like how your thinking!! It is really hard to believe I will finish a 2 year total of 2.1" of snow. That goes for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Seems like the NAM is showing a more favorable trough position for a storm on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The threat around the 22nd is an interesting one as the euro and it's ensembles have a very favorable pattern in the atlantic with a Baffin bay block and enough of 50 50 low to try to force things south. Here's the Euro note the big positive anomaly across Greenland and Baffin Bay and the nice low to the south near nova scotia 24 hrs prior to the storm. That'sa pretty nice combo. The one downside is there still is a positive anomaly extending into the southeast that shows up on the D+11 mean charts. That sometimes is a tell for getting he primary low to track to the OH valley before reforming off the coast. As I said the D+11 superens mean has that positive still over the southeast during the period encompassing the storm. On the bright side it also shows enough blocking to think damming will be an issue so even with a track into the oh valley there might be potential for front end winter weather especially for Ji and company but maybe for all. There also is the possibility that the euro 10 day forecast is perfect (like that happens alot) and the low tracks on a perfect track for us. My gut feeling is that is not likely as I'm not a fan of lows cutting off so early and so far west. Usually that means the primary track is a little north for us to get all snow. Despite my seeming reservations, I like the period for having some snow potential. The analogs from the D+11 were bullish giving 4 or the 9 dates as having storms with two other storm one day out of the 7 day window centered on feb 24. That's the most dates this year. North of us into New England, I think the Feb 22-23 period has pretty good chance at being a snow win (as good as you ever get in such a long range forecast which is to say the chances of a significant snow there are probably considerably higher than the climo chances. For us, things are always iffier. Anyway, those are today's half baked thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 3:14 PM, usedtobe said: The threat around the 22nd is an interesting one as the euro and it's ensembles have a very favorable pattern in the atlantic with a Baffin bay block and enough of 50 50 low to try to force things south. Here's the Euro note the big positive anomaly across Greenland and Baffin Bay and the nice low to the south near nova scotia 24 hrs prior to the storm. That'sa pretty nice combo. The one downside is there still is a positive anomaly extending into the southeast that shows up on the D+11 mean charts. That sometimes is a tell for getting he primary low to track to the OH valley before reforming off the coast. Feb_13_2013_12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH216.gif As I said the D+11 superens mean has that positive still over the southeast during the period encompassing the storm. On the bright side it also shows enough blocking to think damming will be an issue so even with a track into the oh valley there might be potential for front end winter weather especially for Ji and company but maybe for all. There also is the possibility that the euro 10 day forecast is perfect (like that happens alot) and the low tracks on a perfect track for us. Feb_13_2013_500hgt_comp_sup814.gif My gut feeling is that is not likely as I'm not a fan of lows cutting off so early and so far west. Usually that means the primary track is a little north for us to get all snow. Despite my seeming reservations, I like the period for having some snow potential. The analogs from the D+11 were bullish giving 4 or the 9 dates as having storms with two other storm one day out of the 7 day window centered on feb 24. That's the most dates this year. North of us into New England, I think the Feb 22-23 period has pretty good chance at being a snow win (as good as you ever get in such a long range forecast which is to say the chances of a significant snow there are probably considerably higher than the climo chances. For us, things are always iffier. Anyway, those are today's half baked thoughts. Thanks for sharing. Looks to be our best chance this winter, but continues to be filled with more 'if, than and buts than not. Here's to getting at least Bob Chill's 2" before February is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I NEVER post the GEFS within 72 hours Otherwise, I think you got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Thanks Wes. Glad you shed some insight. When I looked at last night's euro and saw the medicine ball in the mw I said ugg. It did reform way south off the coast of sc but I've seen way too much history with these things to feel good about it. At least it looks like a decent hp and wedge in front even if it cuts. Luckily we get to watch the scenario change every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonickteam Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 haha! this is why i love this board. you guys are not only smart, but highly amusing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 lol @ randy. I needed a good chuckle. I'm going to be focusing on fishing like a laser pretty soon but I have another couple of 3 weeks left in me for winter wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 3:33 PM, stormtracker said: I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart pertty much what a disaster of a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 3:33 PM, stormtracker said: I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 2:03 PM, Bob Chill said: Just looked at last nights euro. Big miller B. lol. Primary in ky while secondary developing on sc coast. Nice hp to the n and cad signal. Looks nice on paper but we have a horrendous track record with miller b's. Closed ull tracking from the plains to the ohv. As the recurring theme continues....more issues than Reader's Digest. After getting burned by VD, I understand your caution. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Randy, good job, it earned you a 24 hr reprieve from getting trolled by me. Of course, I get to pick which 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 3:33 PM, stormtracker said: I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Post of the Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 3:40 PM, MDstorm said: After getting burned by VD, I understand your caution. MDstorm With the exception of temps, vday was a good threat. Even so, if the temps were perfect we'd all be crying as our widespread 4-6 turned 1-3. All in all it's playing out as expected though. Miller b's make my skin crawl. If the storm accidentally forms and looks to be a miller b, I'm going to my sis and bro-in-law's in nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 3:33 PM, stormtracker said: I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart This is one of the best posts ever...... and unfortunately, is probably extremely accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 3:50 PM, zwyts said: PD3 Joe Bastardi tweets East Coast storm still on table for East Coast this weekend tough forecast....how much for OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What the hell are y'all looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 6z ensembles are ridiculous for feb 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 3:33 PM, stormtracker said: I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart LOL nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 there are a few KU's and HM is leaning KU. SO KU it is. that will take us to above normal for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 4:12 PM, Ji said: 6z ensembles are ridiculous for feb 22 Look for P010 to score the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 4:10 PM, stormtracker said: What the hell are y'all looking at? echo. I went and looked and am confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 4:14 PM, Ji said: there are a few KU's and HM is leaning KU. SO KU it is. that will take us to above normal for the year. Which KU are you talking about? The 100% certain PD3 or the Feb 22? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 4:10 PM, stormtracker said: What the hell are y'all looking at? Yeah? Have I finally lost it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On 2/13/2013 at 4:17 PM, showmethesnow said: Which KU are you talking about? The 100% certain PD3 or the Feb 22? Feb 22 is a lock. 100% guarantee. See, anyone can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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