showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Thanks. Would the ridge off the southeast coast constitute a block in the upcoming pattern, forcing storms to go up the east coast between it and the 50/50 low? Sorry if this is a bit OT. I can move it elsewhere if need be. Occasionally they can help especially with suppressed systems. All depends on the setup. Normally you don't want to see a southeast ridge though if you are looking for a snowstorm in the mid Atlantic. New England is a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just looked at last nights euro. Big miller B. lol. Primary in ky while secondary developing on sc coast. Nice hp to the n and cad signal. Looks nice on paper but we have a horrendous track record with miller b's. Closed ull tracking from the plains to the ohv. As the recurring theme continues....more issues than Reader's Digest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 From HM: I find it interesting that back in late Jan, this was the discussion between Wes and me:http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-27#entry2051101Basically, he wasn't really feeling the DC area with the first threat but we agreed that things would improve for the Mid Atlantic with time. Interesting how we both were on the fence about something being major in the Mid-Atlantic and it turned out that the storm was generally major north of NYC on 2/8-9.The analogs once again strongly point to 2/20-2/22 and have for over a month now after the 2/8-10 threat. The in between dates I was always unsure of, going back and forth between snowy and meh. It looks like things will turn out snowier with tonight's light to moderate event and possibly this weekend (I agree with Adam that this isn't a "done deal" with the GFS/EURO ensembles, GGEM and UKMET offering a accumulating snow threat).As discussed for the last few weeks, the 2/20-22 threat was contingent upon the general decline in the NAO due to the final stratospheric response and a leftover southern stream. If the NAO seemed real, this could borderline a KU for our area. Both the NAO and southern stream are being modeled at this time on most NWP. The only issue is the tropical forcing which may or may not trend towards a more unfavorable regime by this point, possibly limiting amplification and cold air availability. I'm currently leaning towards a significant storm on this date just under KU status for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Jokes aside, the 22nd threat is sketchy. very bad @ 500 for a storm even though the gfs says there's a nice 850 low below us. But its way out there and the spacing between the cutter needs to be resolved to not a lot of analysis. 6z gfs pops a really nice -nao around the same time. 564dm ridge in the n atl nosing right into greenland. We're going to get an effective -nao eventually.Just hope it isn't late march so we get days and days of cool fog and drizzle. An lastly, weekend threat is there. Looks like the best area near us is st mary's county with an inch or so. We'll have some nice mood flakes. 22nd is very sketchy. The only reason it goes to our south and gives us snow (as modeled) is because of the monster 50/50 and a rather potent -NAO/Baffin block. That just squashes it south and turns it into a bowling ball. How have our other Day 10 bowling balls worked out this year? Storms that are neutrally tilted in Colorado usually don't turn out white for us. The PNA and EPO ridges are gone at this stage, so it's all the 50/50 and NAO. Very impressive storm signal on the ensembles, no doubt about that, but I would not be surprised in the least if this s/w eventually ends up as a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Occasionally they can help especially with suppressed systems. All depends on the setup. Normally you don't want to see a southeast ridge though if you are looking for a snowstorm in the mid Atlantic. New England is a different story though. Read up on -NAO or Greenland block's. That will help you to understand how the block forces storms to the south and helps keep cold air in our area by buckling the jet stream. Once you get that concept read up on 50/50 lows and their position. Then you will have a general understanding of what it takes to get a big noreaster in our area. You will also realize why it is so hard to get a big storm down here and why it is much easier for NE to cash in. Thanks to both of you. Used to tracking hurricanes, not Nor'easters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So far every long range window has missed here. In gambling you end up winning every now and then.. We are due? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Guess I'm buying a few more chips to throw into the 2-20 to 2-22 time frame? I can 't help myself. I'm a Honestly, shouldn't we all just look at at the EURO? Skip all hugging of the GFS, NAM, etc., etc. Would save ourselves some agony don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Guess I'm buying a few more chips to throw into the 2-20 to 2-22 time frame? I can 't help myself. I'm a Honestly, shouldn't we all just look at at the EURO? Skip all hugging of the GFS, NAM, etc., etc. Would save ourselves some agony don't you think? Euro hasnt been great this winter either. I dont think you can trust any of the models past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro hasnt been great this winter either. I dont think you can trust any of the models past 3 days. Maybe not great, but most consistent? Seems when the EURO locks, it plays out somewhere close to the lock. The GFS could have a storm locked in for 100 days, but we know how that story would end. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Maybe not great, but most consistent? Seems when the EURO locks, it plays out somewhere close to the lock. The GFS could have a storm locked in for 100 days, but we know how that story would end. ;-) Euro has been pretty bad across the board with the current system. Yea, nam/gfs went nuts with precip but they did much better @ 500 and with precip and have been much more consistent. Last night's euro has dc is a precip hole. Zero precip. It's never had precip anywhere in our area with much more than .1. When you have a spread in solutions the smart play is to go in between. That's been the standard for as long as I've been on the boards. Even with that, it looks like gfs/nam get the nod here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Bullseye! PD3 It's not out of the realm of possibility that we get a small sneak attack on Sat. Surface sucks but I would fall out of my chair if we accidentally got 2" on Sat. Uber longshot but it would go a long ways to settling things down in this joint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Bullseye! PD3 0.1" on the 72hr NAM? Yeah...we got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0.1" on the 72hr NAM? Yeah...we got this. lol- just having some fun...but it's hr 60 and the gfs has .1 down in st mary's county. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro has been pretty bad across the board with the current system. Yea, nam/gfs went nuts with precip but they did much better @ 500 and with precip and have been much more consistent. Last night's euro has dc is a precip hole. Zero precip. It's never had precip anywhere in our area with much more than .1. When you have a spread in solutions the smart play is to go in between. That's been the standard for as long as I've been on the boards. Even with that, it looks like gfs/nam get the nod here. I hear ya Mr. Chill. Ultimately, the answer typically lies somewhere down the middle of all guidance. That was just my frustrations coming out with the usual model mayhem. Anyway, keep up the great analysis. You and many others here do a fine job even in our losing situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 at the signal on the ensembles for Feb 21-22. Don't usually see something so concrete at Day 9-10 on the ensembles, particularly the GFS. But repeat after me...I will NOT get sucked in...I will NOT get sucked in... like I said a few days ago in another thread, I am supposed to fly to LA morning of 22nd with my wife for a belated 20th anniversary celebration, the rare no-kids trip. You can probably book a BECS to mess up this dealie. You all are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 like I said a few days ago in another thread, I am supposed to fly to LA morning of 22nd with my wife for a belated 20th anniversary celebration, the rare no-kids trip. You can probably book a BECS to mess up this dealie. You all are welcome. Weird I'm going to la with wife feb 23 in morning. I hope storm is not delayed or I'm screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Weird I'm going to la with wife feb 23 in morning. I hope storm is not delayed or I'm screwed Oh god. That's not good. Probably means some sort of earthquake for LA and end times storm here, screwing you and I on both coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So far every long range window has missed here. In gambling you end up winning every now and then.. We are due? Yes we are due!!! Like how your thinking!! It is really hard to believe I will finish a 2 year total of 2.1" of snow. That goes for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Seems like the NAM is showing a more favorable trough position for a storm on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The threat around the 22nd is an interesting one as the euro and it's ensembles have a very favorable pattern in the atlantic with a Baffin bay block and enough of 50 50 low to try to force things south. Here's the Euro note the big positive anomaly across Greenland and Baffin Bay and the nice low to the south near nova scotia 24 hrs prior to the storm. That'sa pretty nice combo. The one downside is there still is a positive anomaly extending into the southeast that shows up on the D+11 mean charts. That sometimes is a tell for getting he primary low to track to the OH valley before reforming off the coast. As I said the D+11 superens mean has that positive still over the southeast during the period encompassing the storm. On the bright side it also shows enough blocking to think damming will be an issue so even with a track into the oh valley there might be potential for front end winter weather especially for Ji and company but maybe for all. There also is the possibility that the euro 10 day forecast is perfect (like that happens alot) and the low tracks on a perfect track for us. My gut feeling is that is not likely as I'm not a fan of lows cutting off so early and so far west. Usually that means the primary track is a little north for us to get all snow. Despite my seeming reservations, I like the period for having some snow potential. The analogs from the D+11 were bullish giving 4 or the 9 dates as having storms with two other storm one day out of the 7 day window centered on feb 24. That's the most dates this year. North of us into New England, I think the Feb 22-23 period has pretty good chance at being a snow win (as good as you ever get in such a long range forecast which is to say the chances of a significant snow there are probably considerably higher than the climo chances. For us, things are always iffier. Anyway, those are today's half baked thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The threat around the 22nd is an interesting one as the euro and it's ensembles have a very favorable pattern in the atlantic with a Baffin bay block and enough of 50 50 low to try to force things south. Here's the Euro note the big positive anomaly across Greenland and Baffin Bay and the nice low to the south near nova scotia 24 hrs prior to the storm. That'sa pretty nice combo. The one downside is there still is a positive anomaly extending into the southeast that shows up on the D+11 mean charts. That sometimes is a tell for getting he primary low to track to the OH valley before reforming off the coast. Feb_13_2013_12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH216.gif As I said the D+11 superens mean has that positive still over the southeast during the period encompassing the storm. On the bright side it also shows enough blocking to think damming will be an issue so even with a track into the oh valley there might be potential for front end winter weather especially for Ji and company but maybe for all. There also is the possibility that the euro 10 day forecast is perfect (like that happens alot) and the low tracks on a perfect track for us. Feb_13_2013_500hgt_comp_sup814.gif My gut feeling is that is not likely as I'm not a fan of lows cutting off so early and so far west. Usually that means the primary track is a little north for us to get all snow. Despite my seeming reservations, I like the period for having some snow potential. The analogs from the D+11 were bullish giving 4 or the 9 dates as having storms with two other storm one day out of the 7 day window centered on feb 24. That's the most dates this year. North of us into New England, I think the Feb 22-23 period has pretty good chance at being a snow win (as good as you ever get in such a long range forecast which is to say the chances of a significant snow there are probably considerably higher than the climo chances. For us, things are always iffier. Anyway, those are today's half baked thoughts. Thanks for sharing. Looks to be our best chance this winter, but continues to be filled with more 'if, than and buts than not. Here's to getting at least Bob Chill's 2" before February is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I NEVER post the GEFS within 72 hours Otherwise, I think you got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Thanks Wes. Glad you shed some insight. When I looked at last night's euro and saw the medicine ball in the mw I said ugg. It did reform way south off the coast of sc but I've seen way too much history with these things to feel good about it. At least it looks like a decent hp and wedge in front even if it cuts. Luckily we get to watch the scenario change every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonickteam Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 haha! this is why i love this board. you guys are not only smart, but highly amusing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 lol @ randy. I needed a good chuckle. I'm going to be focusing on fishing like a laser pretty soon but I have another couple of 3 weeks left in me for winter wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart pertty much what a disaster of a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm not getting suckered by some 20-22nd deal. This is how it's gonna go. 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just looked at last nights euro. Big miller B. lol. Primary in ky while secondary developing on sc coast. Nice hp to the n and cad signal. Looks nice on paper but we have a horrendous track record with miller b's. Closed ull tracking from the plains to the ohv. As the recurring theme continues....more issues than Reader's Digest. After getting burned by VD, I understand your caution. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Randy, good job, it earned you a 24 hr reprieve from getting trolled by me. Of course, I get to pick which 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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