Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Big snow euro d9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Heck of a block on the euro long range. I think that would easily get the job done for you guys and give you your first significant snowfall in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Big snow euro d9 New 0z Euro says screw PD3........but hello Feb.22. . Any Presidents born on Feb 22? MDstorm I know everyone is burned out from chasing mangled flakes and cold rain, but the Feb. 21-22 threat has real potential strictly based on the pattern. Hang in there. I've brought out Sir Isaac Newton (a meteorologic giant) for good luck. MDstorm We've been down this road before. How much sleep do we lose chasing this football before it gets pulled away, again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 at the signal on the ensembles for Feb 21-22. Don't usually see something so concrete at Day 9-10 on the ensembles, particularly the GFS. But repeat after me...I will NOT get sucked in...I will NOT get sucked in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 at the signal on the ensembles for Feb 21-22. Don't usually see something so concrete at Day 9-10 on the ensembles, particularly the GFS. But repeat after me...I will NOT get sucked in...I will NOT get sucked in... Kinda like this weekend a week ago ? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 at the signal on the ensembles for Feb 21-22. Don't usually see something so concrete at Day 9-10 on the ensembles, particularly the GFS. But repeat after me...I will NOT get sucked in...I will NOT get sucked in... You better turn the clock back and not look at the ens but since you can't it too late. Ur all in already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You better turn the clock back and not look at the ens but since you can't it too late. Ur all in already My tentative forecast for the 22nd is partly cloudy with highs in the low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 My tentative forecast for the 22nd is partly cloudy with highs in the low 50s. As a red tag your job is to correctly forecast weather. My job is to point out every possible way it can snow without getting pink tagged. You see the ens last night? I'm all in. Best chance ALL YEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 another 5 runs and we start a thread another 15 runs and we punt the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any of you guys have a good website to educate me on what the phenomenon known as a "block" is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 lol yeah ill wait for the weekend and then ill get sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any of you guys have a good website to educate me on what the phenomenon known as a "block" is? NAO only - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any of you guys have a good website to educate me on what the phenomenon known as a "block" is? Here's just a simple layout of the different blocks you can see. You are probably talking about blocking for Noreasters though, so I will see if I can find something on that. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/blocking/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAO only - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation Thanks. Would the ridge off the southeast coast constitute a block in the upcoming pattern, forcing storms to go up the east coast between it and the 50/50 low? Sorry if this is a bit OT. I can move it elsewhere if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's just a simple layout of the different blocks you can see. You are probably talking about blocking for Noreasters though, so I will see if I can find something on that. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/blocking/ Yes, I was mainly talking about Nor'easters. Thanks for your help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Jokes aside, the 22nd threat is sketchy. very bad @ 500 for a storm even though the gfs says there's a nice 850 low below us. But its way out there and the spacing between the cutter needs to be resolved to not a lot of analysis. 6z gfs pops a really nice -nao around the same time. 564dm ridge in the n atl nosing right into greenland. We're going to get an effective -nao eventually.Just hope it isn't late march so we get days and days of cool fog and drizzle. An lastly, weekend threat is there. Looks like the best area near us is st mary's county with an inch or so. We'll have some nice mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yes, I was mainly talking about Nor'easters. Thanks for your help. Read up on -NAO or Greenland block's. That will help you to understand how the block forces storms to the south and helps keep cold air in our area by buckling the jet stream. Once you get that concept read up on 50/50 lows and their position. Then you will have a general understanding of what it takes to get a big noreaster in our area. You will also realize why it is so hard to get a big storm down here and why it is much easier for NE to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Thanks. Would the ridge off the southeast coast constitute a block in the upcoming pattern, forcing storms to go up the east coast between it and the 50/50 low? Sorry if this is a bit OT. I can move it elsewhere if need be. Occasionally they can help especially with suppressed systems. All depends on the setup. Normally you don't want to see a southeast ridge though if you are looking for a snowstorm in the mid Atlantic. New England is a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just looked at last nights euro. Big miller B. lol. Primary in ky while secondary developing on sc coast. Nice hp to the n and cad signal. Looks nice on paper but we have a horrendous track record with miller b's. Closed ull tracking from the plains to the ohv. As the recurring theme continues....more issues than Reader's Digest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 From HM: I find it interesting that back in late Jan, this was the discussion between Wes and me:http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38643-medium-range-long-range-thread/page-27#entry2051101Basically, he wasn't really feeling the DC area with the first threat but we agreed that things would improve for the Mid Atlantic with time. Interesting how we both were on the fence about something being major in the Mid-Atlantic and it turned out that the storm was generally major north of NYC on 2/8-9.The analogs once again strongly point to 2/20-2/22 and have for over a month now after the 2/8-10 threat. The in between dates I was always unsure of, going back and forth between snowy and meh. It looks like things will turn out snowier with tonight's light to moderate event and possibly this weekend (I agree with Adam that this isn't a "done deal" with the GFS/EURO ensembles, GGEM and UKMET offering a accumulating snow threat).As discussed for the last few weeks, the 2/20-22 threat was contingent upon the general decline in the NAO due to the final stratospheric response and a leftover southern stream. If the NAO seemed real, this could borderline a KU for our area. Both the NAO and southern stream are being modeled at this time on most NWP. The only issue is the tropical forcing which may or may not trend towards a more unfavorable regime by this point, possibly limiting amplification and cold air availability. I'm currently leaning towards a significant storm on this date just under KU status for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Jokes aside, the 22nd threat is sketchy. very bad @ 500 for a storm even though the gfs says there's a nice 850 low below us. But its way out there and the spacing between the cutter needs to be resolved to not a lot of analysis. 6z gfs pops a really nice -nao around the same time. 564dm ridge in the n atl nosing right into greenland. We're going to get an effective -nao eventually.Just hope it isn't late march so we get days and days of cool fog and drizzle. An lastly, weekend threat is there. Looks like the best area near us is st mary's county with an inch or so. We'll have some nice mood flakes. 22nd is very sketchy. The only reason it goes to our south and gives us snow (as modeled) is because of the monster 50/50 and a rather potent -NAO/Baffin block. That just squashes it south and turns it into a bowling ball. How have our other Day 10 bowling balls worked out this year? Storms that are neutrally tilted in Colorado usually don't turn out white for us. The PNA and EPO ridges are gone at this stage, so it's all the 50/50 and NAO. Very impressive storm signal on the ensembles, no doubt about that, but I would not be surprised in the least if this s/w eventually ends up as a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Occasionally they can help especially with suppressed systems. All depends on the setup. Normally you don't want to see a southeast ridge though if you are looking for a snowstorm in the mid Atlantic. New England is a different story though. Read up on -NAO or Greenland block's. That will help you to understand how the block forces storms to the south and helps keep cold air in our area by buckling the jet stream. Once you get that concept read up on 50/50 lows and their position. Then you will have a general understanding of what it takes to get a big noreaster in our area. You will also realize why it is so hard to get a big storm down here and why it is much easier for NE to cash in. Thanks to both of you. Used to tracking hurricanes, not Nor'easters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So far every long range window has missed here. In gambling you end up winning every now and then.. We are due? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Guess I'm buying a few more chips to throw into the 2-20 to 2-22 time frame? I can 't help myself. I'm a Honestly, shouldn't we all just look at at the EURO? Skip all hugging of the GFS, NAM, etc., etc. Would save ourselves some agony don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Guess I'm buying a few more chips to throw into the 2-20 to 2-22 time frame? I can 't help myself. I'm a Honestly, shouldn't we all just look at at the EURO? Skip all hugging of the GFS, NAM, etc., etc. Would save ourselves some agony don't you think? Euro hasnt been great this winter either. I dont think you can trust any of the models past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro hasnt been great this winter either. I dont think you can trust any of the models past 3 days. Maybe not great, but most consistent? Seems when the EURO locks, it plays out somewhere close to the lock. The GFS could have a storm locked in for 100 days, but we know how that story would end. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Maybe not great, but most consistent? Seems when the EURO locks, it plays out somewhere close to the lock. The GFS could have a storm locked in for 100 days, but we know how that story would end. ;-) Euro has been pretty bad across the board with the current system. Yea, nam/gfs went nuts with precip but they did much better @ 500 and with precip and have been much more consistent. Last night's euro has dc is a precip hole. Zero precip. It's never had precip anywhere in our area with much more than .1. When you have a spread in solutions the smart play is to go in between. That's been the standard for as long as I've been on the boards. Even with that, it looks like gfs/nam get the nod here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Bullseye! PD3 It's not out of the realm of possibility that we get a small sneak attack on Sat. Surface sucks but I would fall out of my chair if we accidentally got 2" on Sat. Uber longshot but it would go a long ways to settling things down in this joint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Bullseye! PD3 0.1" on the 72hr NAM? Yeah...we got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0.1" on the 72hr NAM? Yeah...we got this. lol- just having some fun...but it's hr 60 and the gfs has .1 down in st mary's county. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.