psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You know that giant cutter is verifying too. That's the funny part. Models are sick at nailing cutters outside of 6 days. ehh they are way off on some of those too but we dont notice the difference between 46 and rain and 52 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 if the gulf wasnt closed and it was may.. oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 But your kicking it into the net on the sidelines we probably need something simple if we are going to get a snow this season. Anything that requires a phase is not likely to work. The northern branch is just not going to cooperate. The setup, if the models are even close to correct, with a nice 50/50 low and a cold high blocked in place with a potent stj system approaching is probably our best bet. We dont have to rely on complicated phase issues. Just have to get the high locked in and hope for a better track. Its probably the only type of setup that can work for us given the issues with the northern jet running interference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GGEm finally gave up its rediculous solution, now has a weak wave, probably in one more run will have nothing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 if the gulf wasnt closed and it was may.. oh man gfs_namer_183_500_vort_ht.gif May? That's our next snowmaker troll lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GGEm finally gave up its rediculous solution, now has a weak wave, probably in one more run will have nothing at all The worst model ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 nice hit at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 nice hit at 240 Gfs has show snowstorm 19 straight runs on feb 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 May? That's our next snowmaker troll lol broad based trough ejecting into the plains.. outbreak city in ok and ks. woo. good luck with that snowstorm.. 500 matters. on that note.. SE ridge keeps popping up in uber long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Gfs has show snowstorm 19 straight runs on feb 22 another 5 runs and we start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The worst model ever Tomorrow at 12z it becomes better than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I know everyone is burned out from chasing mangled flakes and cold rain, but the Feb. 21-22 threat has real potential strictly based on the pattern. Hang in there. I've brought out Sir Isaac Newton (a meteorologic giant) for good luck. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I know everyone is burned out from chasing mangled flakes and cold rain, but the Feb. 21-22 threat has real potential strictly based on the pattern. Hang in there. I've brought out Sir Isaac Newton (a meteorologic giant) for good luck. MDstorm New 0z Euro says screw PD3........but hello Feb.22. . Any Presidents born on Feb 22? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Big snow euro d9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Heck of a block on the euro long range. I think that would easily get the job done for you guys and give you your first significant snowfall in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Big snow euro d9 New 0z Euro says screw PD3........but hello Feb.22. . Any Presidents born on Feb 22? MDstorm I know everyone is burned out from chasing mangled flakes and cold rain, but the Feb. 21-22 threat has real potential strictly based on the pattern. Hang in there. I've brought out Sir Isaac Newton (a meteorologic giant) for good luck. MDstorm We've been down this road before. How much sleep do we lose chasing this football before it gets pulled away, again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 at the signal on the ensembles for Feb 21-22. Don't usually see something so concrete at Day 9-10 on the ensembles, particularly the GFS. But repeat after me...I will NOT get sucked in...I will NOT get sucked in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 at the signal on the ensembles for Feb 21-22. Don't usually see something so concrete at Day 9-10 on the ensembles, particularly the GFS. But repeat after me...I will NOT get sucked in...I will NOT get sucked in... Kinda like this weekend a week ago ? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 at the signal on the ensembles for Feb 21-22. Don't usually see something so concrete at Day 9-10 on the ensembles, particularly the GFS. But repeat after me...I will NOT get sucked in...I will NOT get sucked in... You better turn the clock back and not look at the ens but since you can't it too late. Ur all in already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You better turn the clock back and not look at the ens but since you can't it too late. Ur all in already My tentative forecast for the 22nd is partly cloudy with highs in the low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 My tentative forecast for the 22nd is partly cloudy with highs in the low 50s. As a red tag your job is to correctly forecast weather. My job is to point out every possible way it can snow without getting pink tagged. You see the ens last night? I'm all in. Best chance ALL YEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 another 5 runs and we start a thread another 15 runs and we punt the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any of you guys have a good website to educate me on what the phenomenon known as a "block" is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 lol yeah ill wait for the weekend and then ill get sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any of you guys have a good website to educate me on what the phenomenon known as a "block" is? NAO only - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any of you guys have a good website to educate me on what the phenomenon known as a "block" is? Here's just a simple layout of the different blocks you can see. You are probably talking about blocking for Noreasters though, so I will see if I can find something on that. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/blocking/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAO only - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation Thanks. Would the ridge off the southeast coast constitute a block in the upcoming pattern, forcing storms to go up the east coast between it and the 50/50 low? Sorry if this is a bit OT. I can move it elsewhere if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's just a simple layout of the different blocks you can see. You are probably talking about blocking for Noreasters though, so I will see if I can find something on that. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/blocking/ Yes, I was mainly talking about Nor'easters. Thanks for your help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Jokes aside, the 22nd threat is sketchy. very bad @ 500 for a storm even though the gfs says there's a nice 850 low below us. But its way out there and the spacing between the cutter needs to be resolved to not a lot of analysis. 6z gfs pops a really nice -nao around the same time. 564dm ridge in the n atl nosing right into greenland. We're going to get an effective -nao eventually.Just hope it isn't late march so we get days and days of cool fog and drizzle. An lastly, weekend threat is there. Looks like the best area near us is st mary's county with an inch or so. We'll have some nice mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yes, I was mainly talking about Nor'easters. Thanks for your help. Read up on -NAO or Greenland block's. That will help you to understand how the block forces storms to the south and helps keep cold air in our area by buckling the jet stream. Once you get that concept read up on 50/50 lows and their position. Then you will have a general understanding of what it takes to get a big noreaster in our area. You will also realize why it is so hard to get a big storm down here and why it is much easier for NE to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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