cast4 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm just NW (Gaithersburg/Northern MoCo), and would not call what I've gotten "pretty decent". Nothing more than an inch. Sorry, I was referring to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 Cool. And I have a lottery ticket. Neither will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 What the heck. I'll punt the VD and PD3 events if they're both online for it. It's only ~252 hrs away with different set ups... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 You are just torturing yourself! You gave 100% chance for PD3 and now what have we got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You are just torturing yourself! You gave 100% chance for PD3 and now what have we got? Nam has a little vort @ 84 near the bottom. We're in its new range now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So because its all we have and I now have no shame, the 84 hour NAM doesn't have a bad look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 looks a little too much like the vd event for my liking see ya next yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So because its all we have and I now have no shame, the 84 hour NAM doesn't have a bad look? It's bad. Running the loop you can see the trough goes neutral too late. There might be some weenie in the coast guard on a boat somewhere in the n atl that is stoked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 looks a little too much like the vd event for my liking see ya next yr the VD event from 2007 or 2013. 2007 right? Have a nice spring Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So because its all we have and I now have no shame, the 84 hour NAM doesn't have a bad look? i thought NAM looked better myself at 84. Much better than 12z 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 if its any consolation...our Feb 11,2006 storm was not on the models till Wed and the snowstorm was Saturday night. The models had it Sunday and then lost it Monday and tuesday. JMA and GFS brought it back Wed...European had it Thursday and NAM had it saturday at 4:20pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 the VD event from 2007 or 2013. 2007 right? Have a nice spring Ian 2013.. tho i hadnt looked at the op only the mean. the op is a lot more intense with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 looks a little too much like the vd event for my liking see ya next yr Time to go back to the severe thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skidude Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can't be that great, Dt isn't raving about it on FB. Naaaa....he's busy raving about Darwin and getting pummeled LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We are going to get a snowstorm this weekend. Why - because the pessimism has reached a crescendo, none of the models show anything, and yet the overall pattern is ideal for something to pop and ride up the coast. As someone said earlier, the models always over-estimate these troughs digging into the south. Don't be surprised if tonight and tomorrow the models start retreating on this overly aggressive trough and allow the southern stream to kick-up some moisture and send it up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We are going to get a snowstorm this weekend. Why - because the pessimism has reached a crescendo, none of the models show anything, and yet the overall pattern is ideal for something to pop and ride up the coast. As someone said earlier, the models always over-estimate these troughs digging into the south. Don't be surprised if tonight and tomorrow the models start retreating on this overly aggressive trough and allow the southern stream to kick-up some moisture and send it up our way. If only this type of thinking worked.. We'd average 100+ a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Naaaa....he's busy raving about Darwin and getting pummeled LMAO Maybe you can ask God if there will be a snowstorm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Maybe you can ask God if there will be a snowstorm..... This one gets a +2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looking at the h5 setup for pd there is a sw in the right spot diving down the backside with a good trough axis but then the gfs just washes it out. All the energy gets put into the pos sw out in front way east. That thing has no chance but its screwing up the situation behind it. The weak storm way ots isn't really from the same sw that was producing a storm on earlier runs. Gfs is just now identifying a different sw to amp and its the wrong one for us. Not sure if euro is doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 looks a little too much like the vd event for my liking see ya next yr The Feb 21-22 "threat" looks nothing like this current VD "non-event". Now, it may not turn into anything good (what else is new?), but the potential set-up is very different. And it's only 10 days away! . MDstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think Ian was basing that on the gefs not the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Feb 21-22 "threat" looks nothing like this current VD "non-event". Now, it may not turn into anything good (what else is new?), but the potential set-up is very different. And it's only 10 days away! . MDstorm. From my inexperienced eyes, it looks like it would be easier to get a storm to ride the coast with that ridge off the Southeast US and any potential storm would also have to go under the 50/50 low. Seems like the Mid-Atlantic is in a good spot at that timeframe.Edited to add: Another worthless GL low to d!ck it all up though... Grand. Talking about the GFS btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think Ian was basing that on the gefs not the op run Euro ens. I hadn't looked at the op runs that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro ens. I hadn't looked at the op runs that far out. Gotcha. At this point, with the VD "event" basically DOA, and the PD "event" probably morgue- bound, I'm looking for anything I can find of interest. What the hell...I'm all in for Feb 21-23. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If anyone wants to really torture yourself go look at the nogaps. Yea it has a huge storm but it evolves almost identical to the past storm. Hour 108 is almost the same as a map from Friday. Ends up totally missing dc again but this time getting even closer and hitting from just north of Balt northeast just to torment. Luckily it's all crap on the nogaps anyways but I found it ironic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Where has that setup on the 240hr GFS been for the last two years?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Where has that setup on the 240hr GFS been for the last two years?? It's been there the whole time but it never gets closer than 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Where has that setup on the 240hr GFS been for the last two years?? If the models are still as good as they have been at long range, this pattern will be in the same place as its been the past two years...it won't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If anyone wants to really torture yourself go look at the nogaps. Yea it has a huge storm but it evolves almost identical to the past storm. Hour 108 is almost the same as a map from Friday. Ends up totally missing dc again but this time getting even closer and hitting from just north of Balt northeast just to torment. Luckily it's all crap on the nogaps anyways but I found it ironic. I believe we have re-defined the word "irony" this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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