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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

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if its any consolation...our Feb 11,2006 storm was not on the models till Wed and the snowstorm was Saturday night. The models had it Sunday and then lost it Monday and tuesday. JMA and GFS brought it back Wed...European had it Thursday and NAM had it saturday at 4:20pm

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We are going to get a snowstorm this weekend. Why - because the pessimism has reached a crescendo, none of the models show anything, and yet the overall pattern is ideal for something to pop and ride up the coast. As someone said earlier, the models always over-estimate these troughs digging into the south. Don't be surprised if tonight and tomorrow the models start retreating on this overly aggressive trough and allow the southern stream to kick-up some moisture and send it up our way.

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We are going to get a snowstorm this weekend. Why - because the pessimism has reached a crescendo, none of the models show anything, and yet the overall pattern is ideal for something to pop and ride up the coast. As someone said earlier, the models always over-estimate these troughs digging into the south. Don't be surprised if tonight and tomorrow the models start retreating on this overly aggressive trough and allow the southern stream to kick-up some moisture and send it up our way.

If only this type of thinking worked.. We'd average 100+ a year.

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Looking at the h5 setup for pd there is a sw in the right spot diving down the backside with a good trough axis but then the gfs just washes it out. All the energy gets put into the pos sw out in front way east. That thing has no chance but its screwing up the situation behind it. The weak storm way ots isn't really from the same sw that was producing a storm on earlier runs. Gfs is just now identifying a different sw to amp and its the wrong one for us. Not sure if euro is doing the same.

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The Feb 21-22 "threat" looks nothing like this current VD "non-event". Now, it may not turn into anything good (what else is new?), but the potential set-up is very different. And it's only 10 days away! :popcorn:.

MDstorm.

From my inexperienced eyes, it looks like it would be easier to get a storm to ride the coast with that ridge off the Southeast US and any potential storm would also have to go under the 50/50 low. Seems like the Mid-Atlantic is in a good spot at that timeframe.

Edited to add: Another worthless GL low to d!ck it all up though... Grand. Talking about the GFS btw.

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If anyone wants to really torture yourself go look at the nogaps. Yea it has a huge storm but it evolves almost identical to the past storm. Hour 108 is almost the same as a map from Friday. Ends up totally missing dc again but this time getting even closer and hitting from just north of Balt northeast just to torment. Luckily it's all crap on the nogaps anyways but I found it ironic.

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If anyone wants to really torture yourself go look at the nogaps. Yea it has a huge storm but it evolves almost identical to the past storm. Hour 108 is almost the same as a map from Friday. Ends up totally missing dc again but this time getting even closer and hitting from just north of Balt northeast just to torment. Luckily it's all crap on the nogaps anyways but I found it ironic.

I believe we have re-defined the word "irony" this winter...

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