Dr No Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'd be OK as chalking this off as a fish storm if the Nogaps wasn't so amped up. It gives us a blizzard this weekend after starting as rain as the closed upper low moves from the VA/NC border to the NE. Nogaps has a severe suppression bias so when that model gets amped up in the day 4-5 range it's nags in the back of my mind as to why it's handling the vorticies differently than the mainstream guidance. Still some of the 6Z GFS members tease us with such a setup. I suppose the energy in question will get into sampling range soon and then put an end to this weekend debate one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GEFS got nothing. Like the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'd be OK as chalking this off as a fish storm if the Nogaps wasn't so amped up. It gives us a blizzard this weekend after starting as rain as the closed upper low moves from the VA/NC border to the NE. Nogaps has a severe suppression bias so when that model gets amped up in the day 4-5 range it's nags in the back of my mind as to why it's handling the vorticies differently than the mainstream guidance. Still some of the 6Z GFS members tease us with such a setup. I suppose the energy in question will get into sampling range soon and then put an end to this weekend debate one way or another. The nogaps has a severe never correct bias. Seriously though I am not punting this until we get to 72 hours and still no positive signs on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GGEM still has some serioutly whacked out solution. Anyone know what the UKMET shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mark my words, the euro is gonna Nam us for PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The nogaps has a severe never correct bias. Seriously though I am not punting this until we get to 72 hours and still no positive signs on the guidance. With all those players hanging around, there is no reason for anybody to be punting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GGEM still has some serioutly whacked out solution. Anyone know what the UKMET shows? Can't be that great, Dt isn't raving about it on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm guessing silence means the Euro isn't too spectacular for the alleged weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Euro is better than it has been but still OTS. Need about a 200 mile adjustment of the trof axis and we are set. Perhaps slowing the kicker down by 12-18 hours would do it. This is still a day 5-6 event, so plenty of time for an adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 the runs that had us getting something had the trough based positioned deepest to the southwest which allowed something to spin up that seems to be gone and the base of the trough is flatter or even aimed more NNW/SSE unless it changes, all the models will continue to show nothing imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Euro is better than it has been but still OTS. Need about a 200 mile adjustment of the trof axis and we are set. Perhaps slowing the kicker down by 12-18 hours would do it. This is still a day 5-6 event, so plenty of time for an adjustment. No offense - and I really mean that - but this kind of blind optimism has done nothing for us in over two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro and gfs are in good agreement with a wasted trough ots whiff and cutter followup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 PD3 is dead and any storm beyond 180 hrs is bs. This winter nina > nino. This nina thing is overplayed. We still get a couple of grass-covering snows in Nina winters. What we have going on is something different, and I notice that this no 2"+ snow has crept northeastward to Philly this season. Maybe they are the new DC and we are the new Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not blind optimism: something's got to give this week The GGEM is so far west that we rain then dry slot...and the GFS is so progressive that only one GFS member give us a storm. The truth probably lies somewhere in between (sort of where the Euro is heading)- I don't think there's a question there will be a storm...its just a matter of where within 800 miles of here will it be. Our luck is the GGEM would verify and we get rain and a windy dry slot. That's worse than OTS, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This nina thing is overplayed. We still get a couple of grass-covering snows in Nina winters. What we have going on is something different, and I notice that this no 2"+ snow has crept northeastward to Philly this season. Maybe they are the new DC and we are the new Richmond. The airport (worst place in the city for snow) has not done well, but just NW has done pretty decent this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The airport (worst place in the city for snow) has not done well, but just NW has done pretty decent this year. I'm just NW (Gaithersburg/Northern MoCo), and would not call what I've gotten "pretty decent". Nothing more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro and gfs are in good agreement with a wasted trough ots whiff and cutter followup. Bob you said you weren't giving up until ????Of course it would be nice for a model to show something, anything, for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm just NW (Gaithersburg/Northern MoCo), and would not call what I've gotten "pretty decent". Nothing more than an inch. I believe he is talking about Philly burbs. See Flyers logo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm just NW (Gaithersburg/Northern MoCo), and would not call what I've gotten "pretty decent". Nothing more than an inch. Sorry, I was referring to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 Cool. And I have a lottery ticket. Neither will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 What the heck. I'll punt the VD and PD3 events if they're both online for it. It's only ~252 hrs away with different set ups... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 You are just torturing yourself! You gave 100% chance for PD3 and now what have we got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You are just torturing yourself! You gave 100% chance for PD3 and now what have we got? Nam has a little vort @ 84 near the bottom. We're in its new range now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So because its all we have and I now have no shame, the 84 hour NAM doesn't have a bad look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO and GFS have snow on Feb 21-22 looks a little too much like the vd event for my liking see ya next yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So because its all we have and I now have no shame, the 84 hour NAM doesn't have a bad look? It's bad. Running the loop you can see the trough goes neutral too late. There might be some weenie in the coast guard on a boat somewhere in the n atl that is stoked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 looks a little too much like the vd event for my liking see ya next yr the VD event from 2007 or 2013. 2007 right? Have a nice spring Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So because its all we have and I now have no shame, the 84 hour NAM doesn't have a bad look? i thought NAM looked better myself at 84. Much better than 12z 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 if its any consolation...our Feb 11,2006 storm was not on the models till Wed and the snowstorm was Saturday night. The models had it Sunday and then lost it Monday and tuesday. JMA and GFS brought it back Wed...European had it Thursday and NAM had it saturday at 4:20pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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