WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z has the departing 50-50 down to 944mbs. Wow. Just slow that damn thing down and park it please. Setup favors a west track but at least there are some things that can get in the way. Not ready to go all in yet. lol Love me some warm rain. Is it spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Love me some warm rain. Is it spring yet? Close enough. I have 2-3 weeks left on this job and i'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 that is a generalization but sharper is usually better, but there are so many moving parts in the equation its not just one thing. Timing is a huge issue, if you get a nice vort into the trough at the right time, it will amplify and the trough will sharper up. Of course if it goes negative too soon...cutter, of course unless you have a really good -NAO block... see it just depends. What you want from each of those independent factors depends to a large degree on the others. Lots of moving parts that have to come together in the right way. There is no simple answer. But if you want to simplify it to a few things we need to see to know the setup has promise, the trough has to dig to at least south of our latitude, you want the h5 vort to track to your south, and you generally want the ridge axis out west to be somewhere around the great basin. Those 3 at least set us up to have a chance. Of course a -NAO and good cold air source help and a million other meso scale things like the timing of the sw's and all end up deciding the final outcome. We can have the perfect setup, +PNA, -NAO, perfect ridge and trough position, and not get anything if the timing is off. Hence, why we have a good storm every 5 - 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Day 9-10 storm on the GFS is loltastic. Sure...we usually get snow from storms that are neutrally titled in Kansas and have the low center NE of Indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You can tell it's been a really bad stretch by the excitement over fantasy range storms simply showing back up on the models like they usually do all winter in a normal year. 384 isn't bad. Time to start playing with the 10C 850 line more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Day 9-10 storm on the GFS is loltastic. Sure...we usually get snow from storms that are neutrally titled in Kansas and have the low center NE of Indianapolis. You mean the 1032 H in Quebec isn't going to cut it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 384 isn't bad. Time to start playing with the 10C 850 line more often. SE pig ridge back in town. 582 line up into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You mean the 1032 H in Quebec isn't going to cut it? ICE! 2" of ice fookin counts at breaking the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ICE! 2" of ice fookin counts at breaking the streak. No...check the 2m temps. GFS actually thinks it's going to snow in that situation. Well, I suppose there might be a warm layer between 850 and the surface, but it's so not worth it to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 PD3 is dead and any storm beyond 180 hrs is bs. This winter nina > nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 No...check the 2m temps. GFS actually thinks it's going to snow in that situation. Well, I suppose there might be a warm layer between 850 and the surface, but it's so not worth it to check. Fair enough...1,5" of snow then .5 ice then watch it go down the gutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'll take my chances with this and not worry about the mjo. I've watched more polar loops @ 500 this year than seinfeld episodes. The -nao has been showing over and over again for over a week. The signal keeps getting stronger. The nao is a tricky beast to forecast. A good -nao can pop up at relatively short leads. LR guidance is suspect at best but it's been consistent enough to pay attention to. nao1.JPG IF, and its a BIG if...the NAO goes strongly negative it could dominate the pattern this time of year. The NAO has its strongest correlation to cold and snow in our area this time of year and through into March. I am skeptical, however, since the NAO has not wanted to venture into strongly negative territory very often this winter. A weak NAO signal won't be enough to overcome the MJO in my opinion. But if the GFS is right and we get a strong NAO we might have a chance to get a storm to amplify far enough south for us...sort of a fluke type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'd be OK as chalking this off as a fish storm if the Nogaps wasn't so amped up. It gives us a blizzard this weekend after starting as rain as the closed upper low moves from the VA/NC border to the NE. Nogaps has a severe suppression bias so when that model gets amped up in the day 4-5 range it's nags in the back of my mind as to why it's handling the vorticies differently than the mainstream guidance. Still some of the 6Z GFS members tease us with such a setup. I suppose the energy in question will get into sampling range soon and then put an end to this weekend debate one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GEFS got nothing. Like the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'd be OK as chalking this off as a fish storm if the Nogaps wasn't so amped up. It gives us a blizzard this weekend after starting as rain as the closed upper low moves from the VA/NC border to the NE. Nogaps has a severe suppression bias so when that model gets amped up in the day 4-5 range it's nags in the back of my mind as to why it's handling the vorticies differently than the mainstream guidance. Still some of the 6Z GFS members tease us with such a setup. I suppose the energy in question will get into sampling range soon and then put an end to this weekend debate one way or another. The nogaps has a severe never correct bias. Seriously though I am not punting this until we get to 72 hours and still no positive signs on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GGEM still has some serioutly whacked out solution. Anyone know what the UKMET shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mark my words, the euro is gonna Nam us for PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The nogaps has a severe never correct bias. Seriously though I am not punting this until we get to 72 hours and still no positive signs on the guidance. With all those players hanging around, there is no reason for anybody to be punting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GGEM still has some serioutly whacked out solution. Anyone know what the UKMET shows? Can't be that great, Dt isn't raving about it on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm guessing silence means the Euro isn't too spectacular for the alleged weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Euro is better than it has been but still OTS. Need about a 200 mile adjustment of the trof axis and we are set. Perhaps slowing the kicker down by 12-18 hours would do it. This is still a day 5-6 event, so plenty of time for an adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 the runs that had us getting something had the trough based positioned deepest to the southwest which allowed something to spin up that seems to be gone and the base of the trough is flatter or even aimed more NNW/SSE unless it changes, all the models will continue to show nothing imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Euro is better than it has been but still OTS. Need about a 200 mile adjustment of the trof axis and we are set. Perhaps slowing the kicker down by 12-18 hours would do it. This is still a day 5-6 event, so plenty of time for an adjustment. No offense - and I really mean that - but this kind of blind optimism has done nothing for us in over two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro and gfs are in good agreement with a wasted trough ots whiff and cutter followup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 PD3 is dead and any storm beyond 180 hrs is bs. This winter nina > nino. This nina thing is overplayed. We still get a couple of grass-covering snows in Nina winters. What we have going on is something different, and I notice that this no 2"+ snow has crept northeastward to Philly this season. Maybe they are the new DC and we are the new Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not blind optimism: something's got to give this week The GGEM is so far west that we rain then dry slot...and the GFS is so progressive that only one GFS member give us a storm. The truth probably lies somewhere in between (sort of where the Euro is heading)- I don't think there's a question there will be a storm...its just a matter of where within 800 miles of here will it be. Our luck is the GGEM would verify and we get rain and a windy dry slot. That's worse than OTS, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This nina thing is overplayed. We still get a couple of grass-covering snows in Nina winters. What we have going on is something different, and I notice that this no 2"+ snow has crept northeastward to Philly this season. Maybe they are the new DC and we are the new Richmond. The airport (worst place in the city for snow) has not done well, but just NW has done pretty decent this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The airport (worst place in the city for snow) has not done well, but just NW has done pretty decent this year. I'm just NW (Gaithersburg/Northern MoCo), and would not call what I've gotten "pretty decent". Nothing more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro and gfs are in good agreement with a wasted trough ots whiff and cutter followup. Bob you said you weren't giving up until ????Of course it would be nice for a model to show something, anything, for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm just NW (Gaithersburg/Northern MoCo), and would not call what I've gotten "pretty decent". Nothing more than an inch. I believe he is talking about Philly burbs. See Flyers logo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.