yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 New thread been give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I haven't posted in years, as real life has gotten quite busy, but I'd come out of hiding to say this. I am more excited for the potential for PD III than I have been since Feb. 9, 2010. The biggest thing I notice is the trough looks messy, with way too many S/W's running around. Good high latitude blocking and a much less progressive flow looks to be showing up around that time so I find that somewhat unlikely. Minor timing differences turn this in to a 1993 redux very quickly. Even if PD III doesn't pan out, the pattern we're going into this the best I've seen since 2010. Anyone who is not excited about the potential this pattern shows needs to have their head examined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Not quite sure where the 00z UKIE has its 983 L magically appear from at 144 over the BM... there was a 1008 L way down in the GOM at 120 and a 1010 clipper low racing across N IL/S WI... GGEM has a 990 right up NJ turnpike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ggem very interesting....shows the potential of pd weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ggem very interesting....shows the potential of pd weekend Yes it does, as a huge inland runner.... but shows everything is on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It all sounds good to me! ".LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPR TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS MID-SOUTH STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. STILL A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 12Z GFS/ECMWF WITH GFS FARTHER NORTH/POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT AND ECMWF STAYING SOUTH WITH LITTLE PRECIP FOR THE CWA. WITH GEFS MEMBERS STILL DISPLAYING QUITE A RANGE OF LOCATIONS FOR SFC LOWS...DELAYED POPS AND DECREASED FOR NRN HALF OF THE CWA AS A COMPROMISE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING THIS ONE WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE LWX CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW...BUT DYNAMIC COOLING FROM DEVELOPMENT WOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN STRONGER BANDS. WENT MORE RAINY WEDNESDAY TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR LONG TERM WITH DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH BY FRIDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AND CONTINUED SNOW/MIX WORDING THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER." http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 "T minus 250 miles further west" and counting for Sat/Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol the 6z GFS has a monster of a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol the 6z GFS has a monster of a bomb. Not 1 but 2 bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yep looks like pd3 is back on the gfs model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The question is, would everyone punt PD3 (Ji's storm) if it meant you would get this with the follow up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ^... Lol... Only if you can get Richmond in on that. :-p *shrugs* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ^... Lol... Only if you can get Richmond in on that. :-p *shrugs* If it meant getting this storm I would gladly truck some snow down to your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Considering I am supposed to be flying to LA on the 22nd with my wife to celebrate a belated 20th anniversary, and it is a trip we have managed to schedule without the kids, and it is kinda one of our realistic dream trips, you can probably go ahead and book a BECS to eff up the flight and make us miss our non-refundable plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Considering I am supposed to be flying to LA on the 22nd with my wife to celebrate a belated 20th anniversary, and it is a trip we have managed to schedule without the kids, and it is kinda one of our realistic dream trips, you can probably go ahead and book a BECS to eff up the flight and make us miss our non-refundable plans. Considering that I'm leaving my local, home nightly trucking job for one that runs northeast regional, and will be starting on the 18th, I'll second the fact that you can book this one as well. This kind of stuff happens to me all the time...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 this is what a decent PAC and a modeled -NAO can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The question is, would everyone punt PD3 (Ji's storm) if it meant you would get this with the follow up storm. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I said the other day once this storm last night/today got out of the way, the GFS would pick up the N'easter again. I also did not believe that trough would dig straight to FL that quickly ....and it has moderated in the 6z GFS. This pattern is reminiscent of '09/'10 for sure with several potential big storms in the forecast window. And just for kicks, look what this storm does to the Northeast, maybe another 2-3 feet on top of what they got (in fact it looks more potent than the last one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I said the other day once this storm last night/today got out of the way, the GFS would pick up the N'easter again. I also did not believe that trough would dig straight to FL that quickly ....and it has moderated in the 6z GFS. This pattern is reminiscent of '09/'10 for sure with several potential big storms in the forecast window. And just for kicks, look what this storm does to the Northeast, maybe another 2-3 feet on top of what they got (in fact it looks more potent than the last one). The 06Z GFS ensemble mean does suggest a potent storm somewhere on the east coast for PD3 but after that the pattern goes downhill. In the longer range it is showing a decent west based -NAO but we lose the PAC with troughiness in the west/central US and ridging in the East. Not sure that means anything though because the mean suggests the individual members are all over the place beginning around PD3 period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I wonder if the fact that the 6z is the only run anywhere that shows a storm in this range might be a red flag. Euro last night didn't even show a cloud. However, a trough the width of a hotdog that extends from the pole to the equater might be considered a storm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 General 500mb pattern at 102-108hrs on the 12z GFS is a pretty good one for us when it comes to snowstorms. +PNA, -NAO, kinda a 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 General 500mb pattern at 102-108hrs on the 12z GFS is a pretty good one for us when it comes to snowstorms. +PNA, -NAO, kinda a 50/50. It's interesting for sure. I've been scratching my head about the sharp/deep trough being totally dry. gfs @ 123 is already showing an overrunning signal. Wouldn't that be a welcome visit from a long lost friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is looking really quite nice at 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Sunday has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is looking really quite nice at 138. Yeah...I think this might be the best look I've yet seen for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is looking really quite nice at 138. yeah...PD3 looking really good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 700 looks nice. Precip WITHOUT a requiring a serious low to be cranking. Wouldn't that be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS!!! PD3!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 141 looks really nice... 0.5 QPF in the region and the low strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I expect solutions to fluctuate a lot more than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.