aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS gives me a few inches Well you are beyond the required wait period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well you are beyond the required wait period im sad it took someone 20 minutes to go there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i'd say its probably more related to a subjective memory of occurrences that are biased towards that outcome...i know of no physical and/or numerical reason for it to occur. I have not done any research into this but perhaps it is possible as sw for a storm 10 days out enters a data sparse region that the models have problems picking it up until the energy re-emerges into an area it can be sampled better. I have thoght of that from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well you are beyond the required wait period im sad it took someone 20 minutes to go there Get a room. Also, just for fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We all know the problems with this, but with a nice track its possible to get a quick thump snow at the end even into the cities. But most importantly, I do not think it is a coincidence that the runs that have a more amplified VD storm also show more potential for our PDIII event. Consider this the appetizer, be happy if we get a coating of snow from a thump of wet cement, and then look towards what I think is a real threat so long as this storm cam amp up and create the -nao signal that we need for the PDIII event. I still think we have a good chance to get one area wide 2" plus snow event before the season is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro looks better so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro has precip into ky / sw va @ 48 but I can't remember what it had last night because I was half asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Very helpful analysis hereMy apologies, better height rises out in front, n/s vort dug in better, sfc low 100ish nw of 0z with more precip and a stronger s/w and low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 precip overhead @ 54. It's caving to the gfs rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 54 looks good 850s south of DC. Boundary above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think we'd be cold enough on the euro for snow if it had as heavy precip as the gfs nam uk or ggem. Not toasting with light qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still precipitating at 60...boundary still very questionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro is better...but not thumpy enough...and warm of course seems like its still lost but finding its way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 60 has a 998ish low off of oc and temps crashing but freezing still just above md in pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks like snow as precip exits but hard to tell. The takeaway is a big step towards gfs. I might start trolling dt's page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro is better...but not thumpy enough...and warm of course i have little hopes for the vd storm. it's likely to be 40 when it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 25% on paper (mostly fantasy anyway) 75% in the air and on the ground (reality is real) 0% after the storm (next) Yeah, that's the breakdown for me as well - once the storm is over and snow is on the ground, I'm done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah, I'll say it again, if we were to get thumped on the euro, there would be a few inches in balt and maybe dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Guessing somewhere between .30-.40 for metro DC on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Sounds like the Euro is perhaps 3-6 hours faster than the GFS and NAM? Nighttime would certainly help a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navywxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its funny how euro and gfs also show storms at 192-240 out....lose them for a few days and then bring them back. What causes this to always happen? The GFS model resolution is 35km up to 192hrs. After 192hr the resolution doubles to 70km and the output is very unreliable, most of the data used at those time frames are climo driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 First call DC: .3" BWI: 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 all we need is like 10 factors to improve in the next 48 hours and we are sitting pretty Yea, that sums it up well. 6 more runs of similar improvements in the euro would do it but we don't have that much time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I punted already I wrote something on it for Jason, I actually tried talking him out of an article but we were already committed. Of course the weekend storm popped up on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 NW might get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 whether we get snow or not doesn't change the fact that the Euro has bowed to the GFS/NAM (especially considering neither of them are calling for all snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There's a little bullseye over dc of .25ish in 6 hours @ hr 60. Might be mood flakes that 5 people are awake to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 whether we get snow or not doesn't change the fact that the Euro has bowed to the GFS/NAM (especially considering neither of them are calling for all snow) And you know that's a win in my book. cold rain is much better when the gfs kills the euro for 4+ straight days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NW might get something Maybe, the further north and west you are the better in terms of temps but I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM weaken on the next run or two and it really is the only model that gives much hope as it has the better dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Maybe, the further north and west you are the better in terms of temps but I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM weaken on the next run or two and it really is the only model that gives much hope as it has the better dynamics. GFS hints at the possibility too though. We just need the nw side to be cranking a bit more. It might be too much to ask but we'll know in a couple days either way. 12z gfs had a good swath of .5 precip over much of md and parts of nova. Rates are everything though. I'm just pointing out details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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