BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think theres a bit much on the negativity in here...I havent been an active poster this year, but anyone that does know me, knows Im not a snow weenie...With the EURO STILL too far south and the NAM trending to the right direction and also the ensembles of the GFS being more east, Im not sure why a few inches in the metro is inconceivable...Sure it would be a wet pasting, but I sure as heck would take 3-4 inches. You guys are individual model run huggers to the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 was always kinda thread the needle in this craptastic air mass. at least it'll be cold this weekend while new england gets bombed .. hopefully we get a squall out of it. Stormtracker beat me to it but Ian look at the weekend setup I would think the surface would look better than what it shows cause there is definitely phasing occurring if I remember correctly somewhere around 126 I logged off the NCEP site but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am done with this one. I will still root for it passively. I am kind of over rooting for MRB/HGR/JYO though I hope they get something out of it. I dont really see how DC/Immedite burbs get anything other than some paste at the end that doesnt do too much. Maybe 1-2". I dont expect the euro to show anything great. Good luck to the exburbs. I find it absolutely incredible what has become of our area wrt snow. Even the cr@ppy NINA years of the 70's had at least one moderate event every winter (sorry folks, 72/73 was a super NINO.) And to think a few days ago this was just a lazy southern vort w/o any interference from the northern stream is the most baffling part in my mind. Say what you want folks, yes, we need the vort passing to our south to be perfect, but the northern vort is cutting off any chance of the bl temps cooperating, just like they have done for 3 years. iow, I agree with you Matt; I hope it does something for us, but I don't see it happening. I'd add that any snow it produces will likely be nothing more than a bitter reminder of how we're getting screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Stormtracker beat me to it but Ian look at the weekend setup I would think the surface would look better than what it shows cause there is definitely phasing occurring if I remember correctly somewhere around 126 I logged off the NCEP site but wow other thread.. but 5-6 days out is like 100 in this pattern imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think theres a bit much on the negativity in here...I havent been an active poster this year, but anyone that does know me, knows Im not a snow weenie...With the EURO STILL too far south and the NAM trending to the right direction and also the ensembles of the GFS being more east, Im not sure why a few inches in the metro is inconceivable...Sure it would be a wet pasting, but I sure as heck would take 3-4 inches. You guys are individual model run huggers to the core. It isn't like we get to be choosy around here. Folks will spend days and days analyzing a cartopper with .05" precip but when a legit storm shows up and trends better on the models it is dismissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Acting as Yoda: GGEM is snowy, primary randomly to wv then coastal transfer. Few hours of mod hvy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The new GGEM puts Baltimore right on the rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The new GGEM puts Baltimore right on the rain snow line. Yep then goes over to some good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 they are just models. they dont mean much. We have a month left. Either we get snow or we dont except when they don't show snow when it counts, which has become all the time nowadays lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The GGEM looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The GGEM looks awesome.Yes, we get fookin destroyed. Edit to add that thing usually runs warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The GGEM looks awesome. The problem is it has scored a coup like twice in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If ITs not gonna snow then bring on sunny and nice... Just no more of this rain slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 who cares?...It is one of the least skilled models there is..I dont know why people care about it other than for entertainment agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 who cares?...It is one of the least skilled models there is..I dont know why people care about it other than for entertainment Just some model porn. I don't plan to hurl myself off a bridge if it doesn't verify. I wonder about some others here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 agree 100%. I apologize for looking at it. Can you ever forgive me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Just some model porn. I don't plan to hurl myself off a bridge if it doesn't verify. I wonder about some others here, though. Glad i punted, i hate saying that word because i love bob and dont wanna offend him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The problem is it has scored a coup like twice in history. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 for those who us who havent seen snow in 2 years, even seeing them on the models though they may not verify is exciting for me. As ive said before...here is a breakdown of my excitement with regards to snowstorms. 40% on paper 55% in the air and on the ground 5% after the storm is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Odds just went up for random obs posts from se pa people we think we know but were not sure. gfs12precip.JPG I'll try to tone it down a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 25% on paper (mostly fantasy anyway) 75% in the air and on the ground (reality is real) 0% after the storm (next) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its funny how euro and gfs also show storms at 192-240 out....lose them for a few days and then bring them back. What causes this to always happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I apologize for looking at it. Can you ever forgive me? maybe. send money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its funny how euro and gfs also show storms at 192-240 out....lose them for a few days and then bring them back. What causes this to always happen? I think it's because they aren't connected. What the models are calculating in the lr is totally different in mr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its funny how euro and gfs also show storms at 192-240 out....lose them for a few days and then bring them back. What causes this to always happen? i'd say its probably more related to a subjective memory of occurrences that are biased towards that outcome...i know of no physical and/or numerical reason for it to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS gives me a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS gives me a few inches 1-3 for Bmore, closer to 3 for you katie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 1-3 for Bmore, closer to 3 for you katie. Where are you seeing 1-3? 2m's never get below 1.4 but are 3.4 for the majority while 850's are barely below 0 while they're .9 above during the bulk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Where are you seeing 1-3? 2m's never get below 1.4 but are 3.4 for the majority while 850's are barely below 0 while they're .9 above during the bulk.No, gfs clowns matte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.