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Feb 13: The little storm that could (for some)


Ian

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I am done with this one. I will still root for it passively. I am kind of over rooting for MRB/HGR/JYO though I hope they get something out of it. I dont really see how DC/Immedite burbs get anything other than some paste at the end that doesnt do too much. Maybe 1-2". I dont expect the euro to show anything great. Good luck to the exburbs.

 

I'm not sure we get much either, Matt.  Surface temps looks iffy, although usually they trend down toward the event.  Euro not on board, heck, we might not even get much precip.  Hard to say at this point.  Timing on the GFS isn't great either.  NAM timing would be better as most of the heavier precip would be from sundown on.

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GFS has barely changed much for days except for 1 run (18z yesterday). Even if this is a rain storm I'm going to bump this thread every time someone says the euro is greatest thing on the planet and the gfs is awful. 

 

Well, it may come on board this afternoon.  Still, there's plent of bump material to support what you said already posted in this seasons winter threads.

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GFS has barely changed much for days except for 1 run (18z yesterday). Even if this is a rain storm I'm going to bump this thread every time someone says the euro is greatest thing on the planet and the gfs is awful. 

 

Bob, you remember the other day when I said the american models tend to bring those vorts north in time?  It was modeled in SC at the time?  Now its modeled in Bluefield, WV.  Seems to always do this.

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When do you feel that swings over to the op vs. the ens?

About 72 hours.  Probably one of our stats guru's can quote it to the specific hour, but I think 72 hours is a good ROT.  This doesn't apply to the SREFs, just GEFS.  Have no idea about the Euro ensembles.  

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Still not ready to fold on this one. Gonna wait for the Euro and still wait for 0z Tuesday (tonight) to determine how I feel about the situation. I am become more interested in the weekend though.

 

You can never fold a vort pass through va. You will get burned and have egg eventually. This one is far from optimal though because of lack of cold air source but still. If there is a band crankin on the nw side it's going to be snow somewhere. Maybe really close by or overhead.  

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Verbatim someone gets pasted but looking at the track and not seeing the end of the run our friends up north get another dump

It has quickly morphed into another thread the needle storm where we need everything to go right. The comparisons to 1/26/11 are pretty much futile at this point. That had a paste bomb coming from the southwest. The orientation of the storm was 100 times better. I wish those still invested the best of luck and I hope I am wrong and surprised.

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It has quickly morphed into another thread the needle storm where we need everything to go right. The comparisons to 1/26/11 are pretty much futile at this point. That had a paste bomb coming from the southwest. The orientation of the storm was 100 times better. I wish those still invested the best of luck and I hope I am wrong and surprised.

 

was always kinda thread the needle in this craptastic air mass. 

 

at least it'll be cold this weekend while new england gets bombed .. hopefully we get a squall out of it. :P

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I think theres a bit much on the negativity in here...I havent been an active poster this year, but anyone that does know me, knows Im not a snow weenie...With the EURO STILL too far south and the NAM trending to the right direction and also the ensembles of the GFS being more east, Im not sure why a few inches in the metro is inconceivable...Sure it would be a wet pasting, but I sure as heck would take 3-4 inches. You guys are individual model run huggers to the core.

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was always kinda thread the needle in this craptastic air mass. 

 

at least it'll be cold this weekend while new england gets bombed .. hopefully we get a squall out of it. :P

Stormtracker beat me to it but Ian look at the weekend setup I would think the surface would look better than what it shows cause there is definitely phasing occurring if I remember correctly somewhere around 126 I logged off the NCEP site but wow

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I am done with this one. I will still root for it passively. I am kind of over rooting for MRB/HGR/JYO though I hope they get something out of it. I dont really see how DC/Immedite burbs get anything other than some paste at the end that doesnt do too much. Maybe 1-2". I dont expect the euro to show anything great. Good luck to the exburbs.

I find it absolutely incredible what has become of our area wrt snow. Even the cr@ppy NINA years of the 70's had at least one moderate event every winter (sorry folks, 72/73 was a super NINO.)

And to think a few days ago this was just a lazy southern vort w/o any interference from the northern stream is the most baffling part in my mind. Say what you want folks, yes, we need the vort passing to our south to be perfect, but the northern vort is cutting off any chance of the bl temps cooperating, just like they have done for 3 years.

iow, I agree with you Matt; I hope it does something for us, but I don't see it happening. I'd add that any snow it produces will likely be nothing more than a bitter reminder of how we're getting screwed again.

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Stormtracker beat me to it but Ian look at the weekend setup I would think the surface would look better than what it shows cause there is definitely phasing occurring if I remember correctly somewhere around 126 I logged off the NCEP site but wow

 

other thread.. but 5-6 days out is like 100 in this pattern imo

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I think theres a bit much on the negativity in here...I havent been an active poster this year, but anyone that does know me, knows Im not a snow weenie...With the EURO STILL too far south and the NAM trending to the right direction and also the ensembles of the GFS being more east, Im not sure why a few inches in the metro is inconceivable...Sure it would be a wet pasting, but I sure as heck would take 3-4 inches. You guys are individual model run huggers to the core.

It isn't like we get to be choosy around here. Folks will spend days and days analyzing a cartopper with .05" precip but when a legit storm shows up and trends better on the models it is dismissed.

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I find it absolutely incredible what has become of our area wrt snow. Even the cr@ppy NINA years of the 70's had at least one moderate event every winter (sorry folks, 72/73 was a super NINO.)

And to think a few days ago this was just a lazy southern vort w/o any interference from the northern stream is the most baffling part in my mind. Say what you want folks, yes, we need the vort passing to our south to be perfect, but the northern vort is cutting off any chance of the bl temps cooperating, just like they have done for 3 years.

iow, I agree with you Matt; I hope it does something for us, but I don't see it happening. I'd add that any snow it produces will likely be nothing more than a bitter reminder of how we're getting screwed again.

they are just models. they dont mean much. We have a month left. Either we get snow or we dont

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