Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has barely changed much for days except for 1 run (18z yesterday). Even if this is a rain storm I'm going to bump this thread every time someone says the euro is greatest thing on the planet and the gfs is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 may be a good run for Aviationwx and Leesburg 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am done with this one. I will still root for it passively. I am kind of over rooting for MRB/HGR/JYO though I hope they get something out of it. I dont really see how DC/Immedite burbs get anything other than some paste at the end that doesnt do too much. Maybe 1-2". I dont expect the euro to show anything great. Good luck to the exburbs. I'm not sure we get much either, Matt. Surface temps looks iffy, although usually they trend down toward the event. Euro not on board, heck, we might not even get much precip. Hard to say at this point. Timing on the GFS isn't great either. NAM timing would be better as most of the heavier precip would be from sundown on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS placement doesn't look real good for DC. Haven't seent the qpf maps, but that track should be wetter out this way. My guess is I'll see some mixed precip, with accums above 1000'. Pretty standard slop storm arrangement. Glad I punted days ago and am not too invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has barely changed much for days except for 1 run (18z yesterday). Even if this is a rain storm I'm going to bump this thread every time someone says the euro is greatest thing on the planet and the gfs is awful. Well, it may come on board this afternoon. Still, there's plent of bump material to support what you said already posted in this seasons winter threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Odds just went up for random obs posts from se pa people we think we know but were not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We're inside the useful range for the GEFS here, just a reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has barely changed much for days except for 1 run (18z yesterday). Even if this is a rain storm I'm going to bump this thread every time someone says the euro is greatest thing on the planet and the gfs is awful. Bob, you remember the other day when I said the american models tend to bring those vorts north in time? It was modeled in SC at the time? Now its modeled in Bluefield, WV. Seems to always do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 we're back to the same place we've been for the past 3 years.....we get precip-it's too warm get it cold enough-no qpf Phineas is a master wizard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z UKIE very juicy at 60 with a 994 L 200ish miles offshore... 850s are fine... looks like 34/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We're inside the useful range for the GEFS here, just a reminder. When do you feel that swings over to the op vs. the ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still not ready to fold on this one. Gonna wait for the Euro and still wait for 0z Tuesday (tonight) to determine how I feel about the situation. I am become more interested in the weekend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 When do you feel that swings over to the op vs. the ens? About 72 hours. Probably one of our stats guru's can quote it to the specific hour, but I think 72 hours is a good ROT. This doesn't apply to the SREFs, just GEFS. Have no idea about the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Verbatim someone gets pasted but looking at the track and not seeing the end of the run our friends up north get another dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still not ready to fold on this one. Gonna wait for the Euro and still wait for 0z Tuesday (tonight) to determine how I feel about the situation. I am become more interested in the weekend though. You can never fold a vort pass through va. You will get burned and have egg eventually. This one is far from optimal though because of lack of cold air source but still. If there is a band crankin on the nw side it's going to be snow somewhere. Maybe really close by or overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Verbatim someone gets pasted but looking at the track and not seeing the end of the run our friends up north get another dump It has quickly morphed into another thread the needle storm where we need everything to go right. The comparisons to 1/26/11 are pretty much futile at this point. That had a paste bomb coming from the southwest. The orientation of the storm was 100 times better. I wish those still invested the best of luck and I hope I am wrong and surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 It has quickly morphed into another thread the needle storm where we need everything to go right. The comparisons to 1/26/11 are pretty much futile at this point. That had a paste bomb coming from the southwest. The orientation of the storm was 100 times better. I wish those still invested the best of luck and I hope I am wrong and surprised. was always kinda thread the needle in this craptastic air mass. at least it'll be cold this weekend while new england gets bombed .. hopefully we get a squall out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 was always kinda thread the needle in this craptastic air mass. at least it'll be cold this weekend while new england gets bombed .. hopefully we get a squall out of it. yay! another weekend spent watching it snow on TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think theres a bit much on the negativity in here...I havent been an active poster this year, but anyone that does know me, knows Im not a snow weenie...With the EURO STILL too far south and the NAM trending to the right direction and also the ensembles of the GFS being more east, Im not sure why a few inches in the metro is inconceivable...Sure it would be a wet pasting, but I sure as heck would take 3-4 inches. You guys are individual model run huggers to the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 was always kinda thread the needle in this craptastic air mass. at least it'll be cold this weekend while new england gets bombed .. hopefully we get a squall out of it. Stormtracker beat me to it but Ian look at the weekend setup I would think the surface would look better than what it shows cause there is definitely phasing occurring if I remember correctly somewhere around 126 I logged off the NCEP site but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am done with this one. I will still root for it passively. I am kind of over rooting for MRB/HGR/JYO though I hope they get something out of it. I dont really see how DC/Immedite burbs get anything other than some paste at the end that doesnt do too much. Maybe 1-2". I dont expect the euro to show anything great. Good luck to the exburbs. I find it absolutely incredible what has become of our area wrt snow. Even the cr@ppy NINA years of the 70's had at least one moderate event every winter (sorry folks, 72/73 was a super NINO.) And to think a few days ago this was just a lazy southern vort w/o any interference from the northern stream is the most baffling part in my mind. Say what you want folks, yes, we need the vort passing to our south to be perfect, but the northern vort is cutting off any chance of the bl temps cooperating, just like they have done for 3 years. iow, I agree with you Matt; I hope it does something for us, but I don't see it happening. I'd add that any snow it produces will likely be nothing more than a bitter reminder of how we're getting screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Stormtracker beat me to it but Ian look at the weekend setup I would think the surface would look better than what it shows cause there is definitely phasing occurring if I remember correctly somewhere around 126 I logged off the NCEP site but wow other thread.. but 5-6 days out is like 100 in this pattern imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think theres a bit much on the negativity in here...I havent been an active poster this year, but anyone that does know me, knows Im not a snow weenie...With the EURO STILL too far south and the NAM trending to the right direction and also the ensembles of the GFS being more east, Im not sure why a few inches in the metro is inconceivable...Sure it would be a wet pasting, but I sure as heck would take 3-4 inches. You guys are individual model run huggers to the core. It isn't like we get to be choosy around here. Folks will spend days and days analyzing a cartopper with .05" precip but when a legit storm shows up and trends better on the models it is dismissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I find it absolutely incredible what has become of our area wrt snow. Even the cr@ppy NINA years of the 70's had at least one moderate event every winter (sorry folks, 72/73 was a super NINO.) And to think a few days ago this was just a lazy southern vort w/o any interference from the northern stream is the most baffling part in my mind. Say what you want folks, yes, we need the vort passing to our south to be perfect, but the northern vort is cutting off any chance of the bl temps cooperating, just like they have done for 3 years. iow, I agree with you Matt; I hope it does something for us, but I don't see it happening. I'd add that any snow it produces will likely be nothing more than a bitter reminder of how we're getting screwed again. they are just models. they dont mean much. We have a month left. Either we get snow or we dont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Acting as Yoda: GGEM is snowy, primary randomly to wv then coastal transfer. Few hours of mod hvy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The new GGEM puts Baltimore right on the rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The new GGEM puts Baltimore right on the rain snow line. Yep then goes over to some good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 they are just models. they dont mean much. We have a month left. Either we get snow or we dont except when they don't show snow when it counts, which has become all the time nowadays lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The GGEM looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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