yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This SHOULD be better a better run... 12z has the h5 s/w stronger and a bit more compacted and in C OK at 36... 06z had it in extreme N TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 5:1 ratios? Ratios in the January 2011 storm were about that. We (BWI) had about as much QPF that day as Feb 5-6, 2010 (over 2" if I recall) and I had about 1/3rd the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's an interesting run. Many subtle differences between interaction of our vort with northern energy. The flow is also different ahead of the storm around the lakes region. Through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 definitely a better dig @ 45/51 comparison from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 nw shield better organized too. this part of the storm is our only hope of getting snow so i'm feeling "ok" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ratios in the January 2011 storm were about that. We (BWI) had about as much QPF that day as Feb 5-6, 2010 (over 2" if I recall) and I had about 1/3rd the snow. Sounds about right. I think we had 8" or so, but it was incredibly heavy stuff that brought down limbs all over my local area and led to 12-hour power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 42.. more room with heights over ne, s/w a little ne, less energy through bottom of trof, and the low over nova scotia is a touch east ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs north? Its warm like hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs north? Yup. vort goes close to EZF this run as opposed to 6z which was further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks fairly similar to NAM. Euro is a outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs north? we're back to the same place we've been for the past 3 years.....we get precip-it's too warm get it cold enough-no qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 we're back to the same place we've been for the past 3 years.....we get precip-it's too warm get it cold enough-no qpf Even the clown maps probably won't show any snow for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has barely changed much for days except for 1 run (18z yesterday). Even if this is a rain storm I'm going to bump this thread every time someone says the euro is greatest thing on the planet and the gfs is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 may be a good run for Aviationwx and Leesburg 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am done with this one. I will still root for it passively. I am kind of over rooting for MRB/HGR/JYO though I hope they get something out of it. I dont really see how DC/Immedite burbs get anything other than some paste at the end that doesnt do too much. Maybe 1-2". I dont expect the euro to show anything great. Good luck to the exburbs. I'm not sure we get much either, Matt. Surface temps looks iffy, although usually they trend down toward the event. Euro not on board, heck, we might not even get much precip. Hard to say at this point. Timing on the GFS isn't great either. NAM timing would be better as most of the heavier precip would be from sundown on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS placement doesn't look real good for DC. Haven't seent the qpf maps, but that track should be wetter out this way. My guess is I'll see some mixed precip, with accums above 1000'. Pretty standard slop storm arrangement. Glad I punted days ago and am not too invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has barely changed much for days except for 1 run (18z yesterday). Even if this is a rain storm I'm going to bump this thread every time someone says the euro is greatest thing on the planet and the gfs is awful. Well, it may come on board this afternoon. Still, there's plent of bump material to support what you said already posted in this seasons winter threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Odds just went up for random obs posts from se pa people we think we know but were not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We're inside the useful range for the GEFS here, just a reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has barely changed much for days except for 1 run (18z yesterday). Even if this is a rain storm I'm going to bump this thread every time someone says the euro is greatest thing on the planet and the gfs is awful. Bob, you remember the other day when I said the american models tend to bring those vorts north in time? It was modeled in SC at the time? Now its modeled in Bluefield, WV. Seems to always do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 we're back to the same place we've been for the past 3 years.....we get precip-it's too warm get it cold enough-no qpf Phineas is a master wizard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z UKIE very juicy at 60 with a 994 L 200ish miles offshore... 850s are fine... looks like 34/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We're inside the useful range for the GEFS here, just a reminder. When do you feel that swings over to the op vs. the ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still not ready to fold on this one. Gonna wait for the Euro and still wait for 0z Tuesday (tonight) to determine how I feel about the situation. I am become more interested in the weekend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 When do you feel that swings over to the op vs. the ens? About 72 hours. Probably one of our stats guru's can quote it to the specific hour, but I think 72 hours is a good ROT. This doesn't apply to the SREFs, just GEFS. Have no idea about the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Verbatim someone gets pasted but looking at the track and not seeing the end of the run our friends up north get another dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still not ready to fold on this one. Gonna wait for the Euro and still wait for 0z Tuesday (tonight) to determine how I feel about the situation. I am become more interested in the weekend though. You can never fold a vort pass through va. You will get burned and have egg eventually. This one is far from optimal though because of lack of cold air source but still. If there is a band crankin on the nw side it's going to be snow somewhere. Maybe really close by or overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 It has quickly morphed into another thread the needle storm where we need everything to go right. The comparisons to 1/26/11 are pretty much futile at this point. That had a paste bomb coming from the southwest. The orientation of the storm was 100 times better. I wish those still invested the best of luck and I hope I am wrong and surprised. was always kinda thread the needle in this craptastic air mass. at least it'll be cold this weekend while new england gets bombed .. hopefully we get a squall out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 was always kinda thread the needle in this craptastic air mass. at least it'll be cold this weekend while new england gets bombed .. hopefully we get a squall out of it. yay! another weekend spent watching it snow on TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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