Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol. The NAM is awful It is out in time but simply using it as a tool to look for changes in track and strength of the vort inside of 48 is a good use. The NAM has a better dig and a sharper vort early on when it counts than the euro does. Especially over tx/ok. Both the nam and gfs have been statues here. That can't just be discounted because the nam is terrible @ 72-84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It is out in time but simply using it as a tool to look for changes in track and strength of the vort inside of 48 is a good use. The NAM has a better dig and a sharper vort early on when it counts than the euro does. Especially over tx/ok. Both the nam and gfs have been statues here. That can't just be discounted because the nam is terrible @ 72 hours. I discount it. We never learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 4km NAM looks good at 60, can't post on my phone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 4km NAM looks good at 60, can't post on my phone... h5 looks decent and precip is in the area already.. and the 1000-500 thickness is right next door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah. I mean dissecting the NAM in a range where its skill is notoriously bad is okay. I enjoy the posts. I like looking at the maps. Who cares at this point whether or not it verifies? It is the end of winter and it is something to root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The Euro never really caught on for NC's wave that tracked E/W in mid-Jan, only the higher res models were correct with strength. And the GFS wasn't bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I discount it. We never learn But are you discounting the nam/gfs combo along with some of the secondaries vs the euro on an island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Not only does the NAM have issues with the temps it also has what looks to be a transference to a secondary off the coast from a primary that is running into West Virginia. And we all know what issues that can bring as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the euro ensemble mean looks better than the OP from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Thanks H2O...incredibly close to isothermal from 875/900-ish down to 950. Surface looks like 3-4C? That's not 33-35F. That sort of detail shouldn't be worried about at this point, but that's probably rain verbatim however incredibly close to snow. Paste bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GFS 15 hrs (N MX) digging the s/w a lil deeper compared to 06z 21 hrs (S AZ)... But ends up at about the same place at 24... but 12z s/w is a lil stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 His snowpack has already compacted to 43" CT Blizz, right? For the first time ever, I wandered into the NE thread to look at pics from this weekend. I've never trolled anyone before, but I was real close to doing it to him. I was going to comment that his 'world famous snowbanks' were impressive and that they were about the same size as ours at the half-way points of 12-19-09 and 2-6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 24 hr 12z vs 30 hr 6z looks pretty much the same tho as the run continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 CT Blizz, right? For the first time ever, I wondered into the NE thread to look at pics from this weekend. I've never trolled anyone before, but I was real close to doing it to him. I was going to comment that his 'world famous snowbanks' were impressive and that they were about the same size as ours at the half-way points of 12-9-09 and 2-6-10. Yup Kevin is Ct Blizz, if you would have told him that he would have gone ballistic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Paste bomb 5:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 But are you discounting the nam/gfs combo along with some of the secondaries vs the euro on an island? i dont think it adds any value...It neither lends support nor detracts from it. As always, especially outside of 48 hours it is meant to be categorically ignored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This SHOULD be better a better run... 12z has the h5 s/w stronger and a bit more compacted and in C OK at 36... 06z had it in extreme N TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 5:1 ratios? Ratios in the January 2011 storm were about that. We (BWI) had about as much QPF that day as Feb 5-6, 2010 (over 2" if I recall) and I had about 1/3rd the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's an interesting run. Many subtle differences between interaction of our vort with northern energy. The flow is also different ahead of the storm around the lakes region. Through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 definitely a better dig @ 45/51 comparison from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 nw shield better organized too. this part of the storm is our only hope of getting snow so i'm feeling "ok" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ratios in the January 2011 storm were about that. We (BWI) had about as much QPF that day as Feb 5-6, 2010 (over 2" if I recall) and I had about 1/3rd the snow. Sounds about right. I think we had 8" or so, but it was incredibly heavy stuff that brought down limbs all over my local area and led to 12-hour power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 42.. more room with heights over ne, s/w a little ne, less energy through bottom of trof, and the low over nova scotia is a touch east ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs north? Its warm like hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs north? Yup. vort goes close to EZF this run as opposed to 6z which was further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks fairly similar to NAM. Euro is a outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs north? we're back to the same place we've been for the past 3 years.....we get precip-it's too warm get it cold enough-no qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am done with this one. I will still root for it passively. I am kind of over rooting for MRB/HGR/JYO though I hope they get something out of it. I dont really see how DC/Immedite burbs get anything other than some paste at the end that doesnt do too much. Maybe 1-2". I dont expect the euro to show anything great. Good luck to the exburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 we're back to the same place we've been for the past 3 years.....we get precip-it's too warm get it cold enough-no qpf Even the clown maps probably won't show any snow for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.