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Feb 13: The little storm that could (for some)


Ian

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you're going to jump all over me, but that surface is on fire still

not that there isn't snow, it's just that a fair % qpf would be wasted verbatim this run

Heavy rain is better than no rain
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Its likely because of the 850 low track... it tracks basically right over us.  Get that SE just a lil and the temps will fall a few more degres

 

nam is backing off it's earlier wacked out solutions. GFS will come in further se and prob not touch ne except for the cape maybe. We need the vort jamming like the nam but a more wsw-ene track of the whole thing

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Does anyone actually have a forecasted sounding?  If we're below freezing from 950 or 975 on up, then 33-35F at the surface is not much of a problem.  If we're above freezing to 925 or anywhere higher, that's naso good.  Based on that one posted chart with thicknesses, the 1320m critical sfc-850 thickness was well SE of our area.  That suggests the warm layer might be fairly shallow.  

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Thanks H2O...incredibly close to isothermal from 875/900-ish down to 950.  Surface looks like 3-4C?  That's not 33-35F.  That sort of detail shouldn't be worried about at this point, but that's probably rain verbatim however incredibly close to snow.  

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Thanks H2O...incredibly close to isothermal from 875/900-ish down to 950.  Surface looks like 3-4C?  That's not 33-35F.  That sort of detail shouldn't be worried about at this point, but that's probably rain verbatim however incredibly close to snow.  

 

It's weird to be talking about rain so much. 14 out of 15 similar setups would be snow no problem during this time of year. Luckily we mostly battling the surface on up a little. It's going to be all snow at some level overhead. And we've seen temps shave a few degrees many times leading in. It's a freekin nailbiter though. Can't deny that. 

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