yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 if the gfs keeps it up @ 12z, then it's time to start freaking out about temps. Its likely because of the 850 low track... it tracks basically right over us. Get that SE just a lil and the temps will fall a few more degres Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes, but we get the advantage of good rates and night time Nighttime only matters if its cold, or cool..... or not torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Heavy rain is better than no rain I am waiting for Howard to chime in on how we lower the temps, although from his previous posts he seems to be leaning the other way this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nighttime only matters if its cold, or cool..... or not torchy 34/35 isn't torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Soundings should be a bundle of joy. only place below freezing in md is garrett county. namfrzline.JPG Has the Commutegeddon look to it. Heavy snow at 33-35 Degrees. ZWYTS mentioned it before. We'd need 1/2 mile visibility type rates for this thing to accumulate. That's the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Its likely because of the 850 low track... it tracks basically right over us. Get that SE just a lil and the temps will fall a few more degres nam is backing off it's earlier wacked out solutions. GFS will come in further se and prob not touch ne except for the cape maybe. We need the vort jamming like the nam but a more wsw-ene track of the whole thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Does anyone actually have a forecasted sounding? If we're below freezing from 950 or 975 on up, then 33-35F at the surface is not much of a problem. If we're above freezing to 925 or anywhere higher, that's naso good. Based on that one posted chart with thicknesses, the 1320m critical sfc-850 thickness was well SE of our area. That suggests the warm layer might be fairly shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 34/35 isn't torchy NAM @ 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 well, if we gotta waste early precip we seem to have some to spare. I just want a 2-4 for god sakes. I don't care if it's mashed potatoes and mud at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Stop worrying about what happens northeast of us and just worry about us getting some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM @ 63 and 3 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Thanks H2O...incredibly close to isothermal from 875/900-ish down to 950. Surface looks like 3-4C? That's not 33-35F. That sort of detail shouldn't be worried about at this point, but that's probably rain verbatim however incredibly close to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 i just want to make sure Kevin Wood does not get left out His snowpack has already compacted to 43" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 and 3 hours later Cold enough, but also looks like precip is over. I think it's fairly clear that if we get snow, it's going to be light-mod rain turning into a fast, short-duration heavy thump of snow with slightly above freezing surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Thanks H2O...incredibly close to isothermal from 875/900-ish down to 950. Surface looks like 3-4C? That's not 33-35F. That sort of detail shouldn't be worried about at this point, but that's probably rain verbatim however incredibly close to snow. It's weird to be talking about rain so much. 14 out of 15 similar setups would be snow no problem during this time of year. Luckily we mostly battling the surface on up a little. It's going to be all snow at some level overhead. And we've seen temps shave a few degrees many times leading in. It's a freekin nailbiter though. Can't deny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Stop worrying about what happens northeast of us and just worry about us getting some snow. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol. The NAM is awful It is out in time but simply using it as a tool to look for changes in track and strength of the vort inside of 48 is a good use. The NAM has a better dig and a sharper vort early on when it counts than the euro does. Especially over tx/ok. Both the nam and gfs have been statues here. That can't just be discounted because the nam is terrible @ 72-84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 4km NAM looks good at 60, can't post on my phone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 4km NAM looks good at 60, can't post on my phone... h5 looks decent and precip is in the area already.. and the 1000-500 thickness is right next door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah. I mean dissecting the NAM in a range where its skill is notoriously bad is okay. I enjoy the posts. I like looking at the maps. Who cares at this point whether or not it verifies? It is the end of winter and it is something to root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The Euro never really caught on for NC's wave that tracked E/W in mid-Jan, only the higher res models were correct with strength. And the GFS wasn't bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I discount it. We never learn But are you discounting the nam/gfs combo along with some of the secondaries vs the euro on an island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Not only does the NAM have issues with the temps it also has what looks to be a transference to a secondary off the coast from a primary that is running into West Virginia. And we all know what issues that can bring as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the euro ensemble mean looks better than the OP from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Thanks H2O...incredibly close to isothermal from 875/900-ish down to 950. Surface looks like 3-4C? That's not 33-35F. That sort of detail shouldn't be worried about at this point, but that's probably rain verbatim however incredibly close to snow. Paste bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GFS 15 hrs (N MX) digging the s/w a lil deeper compared to 06z 21 hrs (S AZ)... But ends up at about the same place at 24... but 12z s/w is a lil stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 His snowpack has already compacted to 43" CT Blizz, right? For the first time ever, I wandered into the NE thread to look at pics from this weekend. I've never trolled anyone before, but I was real close to doing it to him. I was going to comment that his 'world famous snowbanks' were impressive and that they were about the same size as ours at the half-way points of 12-19-09 and 2-6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 24 hr 12z vs 30 hr 6z looks pretty much the same tho as the run continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 CT Blizz, right? For the first time ever, I wondered into the NE thread to look at pics from this weekend. I've never trolled anyone before, but I was real close to doing it to him. I was going to comment that his 'world famous snowbanks' were impressive and that they were about the same size as ours at the half-way points of 12-9-09 and 2-6-10. Yup Kevin is Ct Blizz, if you would have told him that he would have gone ballistic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Paste bomb 5:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.