Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Feb 13: The little storm that could (for some)


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

definitely not up here, mostly was light snow with about 30 minutes of moderate when one band went through.  Doubt I have had more then .15 liquid.  Snow growth was very good and had no trouble accumulating, temps right at 32, just pathetic ammount of precip.  That one band did set up right along 95 and perhaps under that band some areas might get closer to .3 equivalent but I think some people make more of things then it is.  A couple hours or moderate and at times heavy precip is not an inch of liquid.  Getting .15 over a 2 hour period can seem heavy but certainly does not verify a model that was putting out .5-.75 just 24 hours ago. 

compared to what the Euro was putting out all along, the NAM/GFS combo did much better and the reduction in qpf in a system like this is common w/in 24 hrs

obviously, no model is perfect but the American models beat the Euro handily, which was my point

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it went moslty like most of us said, too mild. I wrote it would be like torture to watch big flakes and 37/38 and it was more like 35/36. Huge flakes during that burst and if the whole thing had been 28* probably would have had 2" but even on my constantly in the shade snowboard only 1/3" accumulation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it went moslty like most of us said, too mild. I wrote it would be like torture to watch big flakes and 37/38 and it was more like 35/36. Huge flakes during that burst and if the whole thing had been 28* probably would have had 2" but even on my constantly in the shade snowboard only 1/3" accumulation.

Depends on where you were, I would say the 1.2" I got with it still snowing I should end up with probably 1.3" is a big over performer with regard to what was expected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

compared to what the Euro was putting out all along, the NAM/GFS combo did much better and the reduction in qpf in a system like this is common w/in 24 hrs

obviously, no model is perfect but the American models beat the Euro handily, which was my point

for my area, euro was spitting out between .06 and .1 most runs leading up to the event.  I probably ended up with about .15.  Much closer to the euro then the .6 the GFS and NAM were giving me.  As for the DC to BWI area, I want to see what the final qpf numbers are.  My guess is they end up in the .25-.30 range.  Euro was generally showing about .1 for that area most runs, so that still seems slightly closer to the euro then the .6-.8 that the gfs/nam was spitting out on most runs.  I think some think the euro was showing less then it actually was because it was so light and considered insignificant that no one bothered to really give it much analysis and also threw it out.  I was looking at the txt output each run then glancing at the maps when they came out later, and the "picture" the euro gave me of what this storm would look like, was way closer to the end reality then the "picture" the NAM/GFS was painting in my head.  Again, this is my perception of things based on how I interpret the models...and I was always adding a bit of precip to the euro because I find it runs dry in these situations, but its depiction that I got from it, was closer to what I saw happen tonight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

for my area, euro was spitting out between .06 and .1 most runs leading up to the event.  I probably ended up with about .15.  Much closer to the euro then the .6 the GFS and NAM were giving me.  As for the DC to BWI area, I want to see what the final qpf numbers are.  My guess is they end up in the .25-.30 range.  Euro was generally showing about .1 for that area most runs, so that still seems slightly closer to the euro then the .6-.8 that the gfs/nam was spitting out on most runs.  I think some think the euro was showing less then it actually was because it was so light and considered insignificant that no one bothered to really give it much analysis and also threw it out.  I was looking at the txt output each run then glancing at the maps when they came out later, and the "picture" the euro gave me of what this storm would look like, was way closer to the end reality then the "picture" the NAM/GFS was painting in my head.  Again, this is my perception of things based on how I interpret the models...and I was always adding a bit of precip to the euro because I find it runs dry in these situations, but its depiction that I got from it, was closer to what I saw happen tonight. 

Arguments can be made for both sides, but I tend to lean towards your points on this. The Euro really never budged on this event. Sure it had that one run a couple days ago that was a little juicy when it finally caught on to the system coming north, but if you remember it quickly backed off on precip the next run and didn't bump up again until 12z today and that was only a minor tweak. All the while the nam and gfs kept consistently getting drier each run within 24 hours. For me it's all about the qpf with system. If the wet runs of the gfs and nam verified our area would have had borderline warning criteria snows. Don't get me wrong I'm grateful we still got something measurable, but I'm also very dissappointed because i feel like this one slipped away within the last 24 hours. Had we given the Euro more credence this would have been expected. I knew we would snow with this set up here despite all of the talk about marginal temps, soundings, boundary layers etc. I've seen so many times where it snows up here wire to wire when we are expected to start as rain so that wasn't mine concern, but qpf always was. As soon as the American models backed off yesterday at 18z I started to get that sinking feeling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Arguments can be made for both sides, but I tend to lean towards your points on this. The Euro really never budged on this event. Sure it had that one run a couple days ago that was a little juicy when it finally caught on to the system coming north, but if you remember it quickly backed off on precip the next run and didn't bump up again until 12z today and that was only a minor tweak. All the while the nam and gfs kept consistently getting drier each run within 24 hours. For me it's all about the qpf with system. If the wet runs of the gfs and nam verified our area would have had borderline warning criteria snows. Don't get me wrong I'm grateful we still got something measurable, but I'm also very dissappointed because i feel like this one slipped away within the last 24 hours. Had we given the Euro more credence this would have been expected. I knew we would snow with this set up here despite all of the talk about marginal temps, soundings, boundary layers etc. I've seen so many times where it snows up here wire to wire when we are expected to start as rain so that wasn't mine concern, but qpf always was. As soon as the American models backed off yesterday at 18z I started to get that sinking feeling.

my feelings exactly

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those poor sne'ers - I have never ever in my entire life read so many complaints. First they obsessed over deep snow. Then they got it.

Now they complain about extended power outages, cry about having to clear their snow and what a biotch it is to have to clear ten extra feet. Some of their pics show driveways STILL NOT CLEARED. It's been five days!

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39293-great-blizzard-of-2013-cleanup/page-6

 

They are cryin over many side roads being atrocious. Instead of complaining, get outside with a Jebman shovel (which is a square edged construction grade shovel with a strong fiberglass reinforced handle) and dig it. Get it cleared, dont ask dumb assed rhetorical questions about where to put the snow. Just pile it up on yards. Shovel out the cul de sacs.

 

They need to get their butts off of their couches, put on extra woolen sweaters and three coats, scoop the jelly donut out of their fat face and get outside and do something about the problem. Peoples' sense of entitlement needs to stop 100 years ago - Quit Bitchin'. Start Pitchin'.

 

Can You Dig It, southern New England?

 

I don't think so. Just cry and b i t c h and beg the federal government to do your work for ya new england. You got too much snow. This blizzard kicked your ass. You can't handle it, emotionally OR physically. Just sit on yer couch, cry, feel sorry for yourself, and cry for the govt to do all your work. New England is a massive embarrassment to the entire country and to the entire world. New Englanders are embarrassing me to tears. Their inability to deal with a simple 36 inch fall of snow is ridiculous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...