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Feb 13: The little storm that could (for some)


Ian

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I think some of these accum areas are patchy. Up there maybe less so. 70% of immediate DC area got no/little accum based on obs. Then another 20% might have missed it if they weren't looking outside before it melts. :P

This is one of those situations where a hundred feet of elevation could mean the difference between nothing and an inch.. Nailing down that forecast for specific areas is impossible.

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GFS/NAM win hands down at BWI

suck my snowballs Euro

and take a look at the 9PM temp....32!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html

Surface temps are colder than forecasted for most models--- Winchester reporting drizzle at 32 F show that even under light precip, the surface cooled rapidly and is not spiking back up under light returns.

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GFS/NAM win hands down at BWI

suck my snowballs Euro

and take a look at the 9PM temp....32!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html

definitely not up here, mostly was light snow with about 30 minutes of moderate when one band went through.  Doubt I have had more then .15 liquid.  Snow growth was very good and had no trouble accumulating, temps right at 32, just pathetic ammount of precip.  That one band did set up right along 95 and perhaps under that band some areas might get closer to .3 equivalent but I think some people make more of things then it is.  A couple hours or moderate and at times heavy precip is not an inch of liquid.  Getting .15 over a 2 hour period can seem heavy but certainly does not verify a model that was putting out .5-.75 just 24 hours ago. 

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I was wondering why no one was talking about Fri night.  Tom T in Baltimore thinks it has some promise too.

That Friday night precip is associated with the front running vort that is actually destroying our chances of a storm Saturday night.  At this point, as the front runner seems more and more amplified, and the trailing vort seems like a lost cause, maybe its time to pull for a little front end surprise and actually hope the trend continues towards that first impulse.  Problem is it really has a cap on how much it can possibly do. 

1.  it is flying along

2.  It has warm air in front of it so not even sure it would be snow

3.  its going north of us

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