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Feb 13: The little storm that could (for some)


Ian

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Anything is possible at this point:

 

NAM = rain

GFS = rain to snow (maybe 1-3 in DC area if lucky)

EURO = snow flurries

 

And once again it is maddening with only 48 hours to go. The main thing I am watching for today is how the different models handle the L development off NC - we need a perfect placement for snow.

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03 SREFS were again wetter with a more up the coast look than the 21z run.  I think there's more evidence in the camp against suppressed than there is for it.  Latest SREFS are out in about 15-20 minutes.  Will be interested to see what they look like along with the latest NAM.  We are getting within the 48-60 window, so I don't think we can summarily dismiss any model at this point, including the NAM.

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03 SREFS were again wetter with a more up the coast look than the 21z run.  I think there's more evidence in the camp against suppressed than there is for it.  Latest SREFS are out in about 15-20 minutes.  Will be interested to see what they look like along with the latest NAM.  We are getting within the 48-60 window, so I don't think we can summarily dismiss any model at this point, including the NAM.

9z got dryer

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03 SREFS were again wetter with a more up the coast look than the 21z run.  I think there's more evidence in the camp against suppressed than there is for it.  Latest SREFS are out in about 15-20 minutes.  Will be interested to see what they look like along with the latest NAM.  We are getting within the 48-60 window, so I don't think we can summarily dismiss any model at this point, including the NAM.

With the NAM having a sharp SW and vort on steroids if it does come around to the GFS idea of it's placement I think the potential for overcoming the BL and surface temp issue might be taken care of. I have a feeling the NAM will finally end up with a similar solution as the GFS on the placement but I do have to wonder if we will see it as robust at 500's as we are seeing now. Even though we may not see much from this it has been an enjoyable storm to follow on the models for me.

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