mitchnick Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 To me, its pathetic. I'm not emotionally upset but I've lived here two years and never seen snow accumulate on a street. That's sad more than irritating see, the difference between our lousy winters and a NE lousy winter can be seen in 09/10 when NE had a "relatively" lousy winter, most people still had around 75% of average vs. our lousy winters are 25% of average or less it's OK though, it'll make a man out of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 40/26, wind NE 5 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 We've had a little light rain/snow mix here. I think once we get steady precip, we'll go over to snow. Of course, any accumulation looks unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I've got lots of sun with a temp of 46, can I get to 50? Another plus anomaly temp day. What winter? Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 To me, its pathetic. I'm not emotionally upset but I've lived here two years and never seen snow accumulate on a street. That's sad more than irritating Yes. Agreed. That is sad for you. I have been in MD pretty much 39 of my 42 years. It's not easy to get storms like we used to...or at least it feels that way. Damn global warming! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Amazingly. Light rain with sleet at 43 degrees in Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Proof is in the numbers. In the last 50 years, BWI has received above normal snowfall in just 15 seasons. The last time BWI received above normal snowfall in consecutive seasons was 86-87/87-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 41F and sprinkle fest is now underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Proof is in the numbers. In the last 50 years, BWI has received above normal snowfall in just 15 seasons. The last time BWI received above normal snowfall in consecutive seasons was 86-87/87-88. The distribution of snowfall is anything but a Gaussian bell curve. It's pretty darn skewed with the peak probably near median snowfall (several inches less than the mean) and then a long tail out to our blockbuster years. I'm sure Rodney or Ian could probably plot such a chart up in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 New SREF/NAM now have my total QPF at .12 and .14 respectively. HRRR is even worse. So for those adament that the euro was way too dry and this was closer to the GFS/NAM then the euro, if the end result is .13 qpf, what was closer the euro spitting out about .09 for my area for days, or the GFS/NAM consistently putting out over .5 liquid in my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks like good snow is falling out at Canaan Valley, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 New SREF/NAM now have my total QPF at .12 and .14 respectively. HRRR is even worse. So for those adament that the euro was way too dry and this was closer to the GFS/NAM then the euro, if the end result is .13 qpf, what was closer the euro spitting out about .09 for my area for days, or the GFS/NAM consistently putting out over .5 liquid in my area? I was almost certain the NAM was going to win that battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sprinkles, rain/sleet. 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 New SREF/NAM now have my total QPF at .12 and .14 respectively. HRRR is even worse. So for those adament that the euro was way too dry and this was closer to the GFS/NAM then the euro, if the end result is .13 qpf, what was closer the euro spitting out about .09 for my area for days, or the GFS/NAM consistently putting out over .5 liquid in my area? I think you are fighting a losing battle trying to convince some about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 New SREF/NAM now have my total QPF at .12 and .14 respectively. HRRR is even worse. So for those adament that the euro was way too dry and this was closer to the GFS/NAM then the euro, if the end result is .13 qpf, what was closer the euro spitting out about .09 for my area for days, or the GFS/NAM consistently putting out over .5 liquid in my area? The dry model always wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Snow and rain reported at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I think you are fighting a losing battle trying to convince some about this. He's omitting the parts about the euro having a sheared out nothing underneath solution for days and poor handling @ 500 only to have it slowly catch on to the idea that a storm actually exists. Even as early as yesterday euro showed virtually no precip in the areas that are getting precip and never took the shield n of the mason dixon. If you're only using the model to compare and grade precip totals in your yard then yes the euro might win this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I think you are fighting a losing battle trying to convince some about this. I teach in inner city Baltimore, I must like those kinds of battles. I also coach a policy debate team... so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 39 rain and sleet mixing @ columbia MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 low of the day 32.8 with nice coating in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sleet/rain in Oakton, 41 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 He's omitting the parts about the euro having a sheared out nothing underneath solution for days and poor handling @ 500 only to have it slowly catch on to the idea that a storm actually exists. Even as early as yesterday euro showed virtually no precip in the areas that are getting precip and never took the shield n of the mason dixon. If you're only using the model to compare and grade precip totals in your yard then yes the euro might win this one. I think the effects on sensible weather is what I care about most of all, and with that the euro had a much better idea. Maybe this has to do with how we interpret the model, but I do not just read the euro verbatim and run with it. The euro has had the same storm track as the GFS/NAM for a while. The difference was the strength and the precip in the cold sector. The GFS/NAM were advertising a healthy band of precip while the euro was a ragged mess and had trace ammounts in most cases. It appeared to be way south because it only had the warm sector precip to the southeast of the storm track. What I was seeing, was actually the euro placing the "comma head" in the same place in general, only it was very weak. There was one run recently where the euro did go way south and was just lost, but the other runs it was a good track, and it did have precip into PA, only very light ammounts that are barely noticeable if you are just glancing at the model output verbatim and making a forecast on that. In the end the euro was a little low on precip. A lot of places it was spitting out .03-.05 and its going to be closer to .1. But if you are making a forecast for sensible weather...the euro would have advertised light rain/snow mix with no accumulation. Guess what, that is what the area is going to get. The GFS and NAM with its .5-.75 liquid ranges was advertising a much different idea, that would have been wrong if used to make a forecast. The euro was not "right" neither was the GFS/NAM, but in terms of which gave a better idea of what the end result was going to be in terms of what observable weather will be on the ground...the euro wins. THe end result right now looks a lot closer to how I pictured what the euro interpretation was hinting at, then what the GFS/NAM was trying to depict. Again, maybe I interpret the models differently and that is leading to this disagreement. I love a good intellectual dispute though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 39 rain and sleet mixing @ columbia MD I concur sir. Now if our temps would just crash down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Mostly snow in Winchester, becoming more steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I teach in inner city Baltimore, I must like those kinds of battles. I also coach a policy debate team... so Good Luck. I myself would be interested to see the verification scores after this is done. To me it seemed that it was pretty much a draw with both having strengths and weaknesses. No skin off my back either way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Good Luck. I myself would be interested to see the verification scores after this is done. To me it seemed that it was pretty much a draw with both having strengths and weaknesses. No skin off my back either way though. truth is probably somewhere in between our two stands, but I am just in the mood for a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 39 degrees here. Dry. Haven't seen a sleet pellet, snow flake, or water drop today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sleet increasing and temp dropped to 37 as I travel up 32 towards westminster MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Mostly snow in Winchester, becoming more steady. What is your temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 mPing reports for the past 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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