TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I know most of the people in this thread had this slowly slip away a while ago, but for up here this one hurts a bit. I always had that sneaky suspicion that the euro was onto something with the lack of dynamics given the trends we have seen this year. Still at some point yesterday, when all the other guidance was trending wetter I let myself buy in. These things can usually produce up here. Oh well... its just frozen water. One thing I take away from this is that we are in a new pattern right now and the euro is back in business. It was struggling badly for most of the winter with the dominant pattern but it was money last week with both systems, and now this is 3 for 3. I'm as disappointed as you are, but let's be real here - the Euro was showing us nothing for several days (with a slider OTS well south of us) while the GFS has been pretty locked in from the outset. There's no logical way anyone can call this a Euro "win" just because it looks like the GFS is going to trend to the lighter/warmer side of its guidance envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm as disappointed as you are, but let's be real here - the Euro was showing us nothing for several days (with a slider OTS well south of us) while the GFS has been pretty locked in from the outset. There's no logical way anyone can call this a Euro "win" just because it looks like the GFS is going to trend to the lighter/warmer side of its guidance envelope. Considering that we are probably looking at basically a middle of the road outcome between what the Euro and the GFS were showing days ago the fact that the Euro made the adjustment a day or so before the GFS might be considered a Euro win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Considering that we are probably looking at basically a middle of the road outcome between what the Euro and the GFS were showing days ago the fact that the Euro made the adjustment a day or so before the GFS might be considered a Euro win. Not at all. Euro never had this one at all. It was owned. It sent the signal that it won't be as amped as the gfs/nam combo but it's in 3rd place here. Last nights run had a precip hole over dc. Total zippo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 DTs final map made a teeny tiny adjustment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Considering that we are probably looking at basically a middle of the road outcome between what the Euro and the GFS were showing days ago the fact that the Euro made the adjustment a day or so before the GFS might be considered a Euro win. This is nothing like a "middle of the road" outcome. This is very very close to what the GFS had initially, and has had basically consistently for days - just a tick warmer and a tick lighter precip. The Euro had a slider well south of us going OTS with only the farthest southern areas getting a few flurries - and the Euro was far worse with the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You can't just take a model run verbatim and go with it though. The models are tools to make a forecast not the forecast. If you know the bias of each and have a good grasp of the synoptic setup and a historical perspective to draw upon they can be used very well. The euro tends to struggle with precip a bit with weaker systems like this that get lost in the flow. But it's insistence that the dynamics would be lacking was a red flag. It has had the "comma head" in the right place for several runs it was just insistent it would be dry. It confined the sig precip to the warm sector down in the southeast. The euro under did the precip for sure but it often does with this type system but it was giving a better idea on the lack of organized heavy precip on the nw side. For much of the winter the euro was just lost throwing out solutions that were simply wrong and useless. It is not perfect but the last 10 days it is back to being a very useful tool. If used properly and adjusted for its usual issues it would have given a good indication that the heavy precip on the gfs and nam were wrong. It's not about winning or losing but about using the guidance to make a good forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 DTs final map made a teeny tiny adjustment I have no clue what his original forecast was or what it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 DTs final map made a teeny tiny adjustment Just a "north shift a bit". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 dt feels better after walking the dark lonely streets last night while grumbling to himself and kicking stray cats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just a "north shift a bit". Only from Harford Co to North/Central Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Only from Harford Co to North/Central Jersey... . Was that his final 1st Guess, or his final 1st Call, or his preliminary Final Guess, or his experimental 2nd Call, or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What a difference 24 hours can make when it comes to this winter. And magically the snow....er.....precip hole is creeping once again towards DC and N VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 One thing of note, the northern edge is producing snow in places like Louisville and Cincinnati. Their temps dove quickly once the precip started, at least Louisville's appeared too. Radar doesn't look bad. Timing looks to be late. If it doesn't fall apart, it might end up as a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 One thing of note, the northern edge is producing snow in places like Louisville and Cincinnati. Their temps dove quickly once the precip started, at least Louisville's appeared too. Radar doesn't look bad. Timing looks to be late. If it doesn't fall apart, it might end up as a little snow. Considering I am looking at 41 degrees here already and the models keep cutting into the precip totals I will consider it a win if I can get a few mercy flakes to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm as disappointed as you are, but let's be real here - the Euro was showing us nothing for several days (with a slider OTS well south of us) while the GFS has been pretty locked in from the outset. There's no logical way anyone can call this a Euro "win" just because it looks like the GFS is going to trend to the lighter/warmer side of its guidance envelope. Euro was not showing "NOTHING", the last few runs of the euro did put the "comma head" in the same location it was just pathetically weak. It was spitting out between .07 and .11 liquid for my area the last few runs. So now the 12z GFS gives me .17 down from .3, .4, and .6 the last 3 runs. So if in the end the actual precip ends up being .15 was the euro really that far off? We can disagree, and debate this, but in my opinion the Euro gave a much better idea of the lack of significant precip to the NW of the low. It was a little light, but in the end if precip ends up under .2 it was much closer then the .5 + ammounts the GFS/NAM were spitting out consistently for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 euro is a terrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 sun is breaking out! /prepping for the svr threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well, light rain with a few sloppy wet flakes mixed in here. 38 degrees. Can see up higher on ridges from front door at work a little more snow falling up there, and more snow showing on cameras up at Jerrys Run on I-64 and up at the Homestead at Hot Springs. Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just a "north shift a bit". I laughed when I saw his comment that he had made a small north shift. His adjustment was anything but small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This looks anything but dry on radar. I know, of course, that that can change. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I've got lots of sun with a temp of 46, can I get to 50? Another plus anomaly temp day. What a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 sun is breaking out! /prepping for the svr threads Some some awesome looking mammatus clouds about an hour or so ago. Maybe the atmosphere is getting angry and wants us to have a blast of snow later this evening.....or it was sign of spring storms just around the corner. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Some some awesome looking mammatus clouds about an hour or so ago. Maybe the atmosphere is getting angry and wants us to have a blast of snow later this evening.....or it was sign of spring storms just around the corner. ;-) I was going to mention that as well never saw such great ones as those in the warm season let alone during "winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 One thing of note, the northern edge is producing snow in places like Louisville and Cincinnati. Their temps dove quickly once the precip started, at least Louisville's appeared too. Radar doesn't look bad. Timing looks to be late. If it doesn't fall apart, it might end up as a little snow. they were getting a northerly wind well before the precip started so they didn't need to cool as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Car topper. Thrilling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Car topper. Thrilling It's a derecho. Getting decent sun right now, temperatures near 50...lapse rates look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 they were getting a northerly wind well before the precip started so they didn't need to cool as much My temp is 47.7 so I'll need crashing temps to see even a flake. The longer we stay with sun, the worse our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Car topper. Thrilling vs. a car washer, I'll take it. Look--WBAL said 1-2 on grassy surfaces. Might as well throw in every last chip at every last possibility. What else we have to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 euro has more precip, fwiw (very little) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 vs. a car washer, I'll take it. Look--WBAL said 1-2 on grassy surfaces. Might as well throw in every last chip at every last possibility. What else we have to do? To me, its pathetic. I'm not emotionally upset but I've lived here two years and never seen snow accumulate on a street. That's sad more than irritating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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