psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Except its going to get cold again either way the next 10 days. Might as well hope for a miracle until the permanent warmup arrives in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I guess asking whether anyone foresees a cooling trend at 0z is frowned upon. What's the sense in having a weather forum run this way? Whoever is doing this (with no apparent consistent reasoning) have you been reading this thread? The issue is that some people don't want to give in to reality on this system. And that's understandable - this has been an awful winter for snow lovers. We're just about out of time, and people are desperate for something, anything, before spring hits. The window of opportunity is closing fast, so every event is being looked at with a fine tooth comb, with people trying to figure out all the possible scenarios for snow, no matter how remote the chance is. If we don't get something before the end of next week, it's probably over for this winter, outside of a fluke March event that gives the NW burbs something minor that will melt the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There are birds talking to each other in my backyard, grass/weeds have started coming up. Mother nature is giving us the middle finger. Time to punt this winter Justin Tucker style. Yeah, the daffodil shoots have been coming up for weeks. Some of them are pretty far along. That shows just how bad this winter has been for those who love extended winter weather. Outside of two or three weeks this winter, it's been very mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can't see why or how there was ever any hope on this. It's a 40 degree rainer. As it get well east of our longitude the cold air will come in but everything will be so wet from the rain that even if it snows an hour or so at night it won't accumulate. You should check the oklahoma subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You should check the oklahoma subforum. I'm with you man. The board will probably get split pretty well between all rain/some snow, but some people really should see some snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You should check the oklahoma subforum. Interesting that some of those places were at or above 40 at the onset and went over to snow around 36 degrees shortly thereafter. We've got pretty dry air around, wouldn't be hard to see it drop pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You should check the oklahoma subforum. Exactly what I was thinking. PSU may be posting OBS like a madman tomorrow night while Matt is looking for an AK-47, and tells him to get the hell out of here because he belongs in the PA subforum . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think I'll keep my obs to a minimum out of respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Exactly what I was thinking. PSU may be posting OBS like a madman tomorrow night while Matt is looking for an AK-47, and tells him to get the hell out of here because he belongs in the PA subforum . I found tenman's post kinda odd. Yea, we've known the temps were going to be an issue from the beginning. I don't know how many "no hp to the n" posts were made but there are plenty in this thread. Saying it never had a chance and a 40 degree rainer is silly for someone who's been watching dc weather for I assume decades. We have an 850 and vort passing se of us and what appears to be a modest comma on the backside IN MID FEB. I mean seriously. Nobody ever said it was a lock. It was always fraught with inherent problems. The only problem being difficult to overcome is temps. We have the right tracks, right trajectories, .25-50 precip, and we're still in winter climo. Never had a chance is a silly statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Exactly what I was thinking. PSU may be posting OBS like a madman tomorrow night while Matt is looking for an AK-47, and tells him to get the hell out of here because he belongs in the PA subforum . Almost guaranteed to happen. Matt: no one gives a sh!t, get lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think I'll keep my obs to a minimum out of respect. Nah, we don't care. You're a regular and not some pop in "it's raking" and pop out till the next time. Go all jeb on us. idc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ill share my drizzle obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I found tenman's post kinda odd. Yea, we've known the temps were going to be an issue from the beginning. I don't know how many "no hp to the n" posts were made but there are plenty in this thread. Saying it never had a chance and a 40 degree rainer is silly for someone who's been watching dc weather for I assume decades. We have an 850 and vort passing se of us and what appears to be a modest comma on the backside IN MID FEB. I mean seriously. Nobody ever said it was a lock. It was always fraught with inherent problems. The only problem being difficult to overcome is temps. We have the right tracks, right trajectories, .25-50 precip, and we're still in winter climo. Never had a chance is a silly statement. Yea Howard is kinda weird like that. If he likes a threat even if it is starting at 45 degrees he will remind us 10 million times why the temps will get lower, if he does not like it as is the case here the chance is zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ill share my drizzle obs You really are a sharing guy, make sure to post pics as well. Maybe get one with Matt smiling in the background . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You should check the oklahoma subforum. okc might not be the greatest example because they're already 1000 ft in elevation. i guess at their latitude it might cancel out a little, but i think this event is going to be elevation/pressure driven. i'm pretty much expecting a mostly rain event here. it's still 55 degrees in bethesda, so we still have a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Is it too late for a whiff for IAD? I am responsible for snow/ice removal at the museum and don't care to stay up late for fifteen flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I found tenman's post kinda odd. Yea, we've known the temps were going to be an issue from the beginning. I don't know how many "no hp to the n" posts were made but there are plenty in this thread. Saying it never had a chance and a 40 degree rainer is silly for someone who's been watching dc weather for I assume decades. We have an 850 and vort passing se of us and what appears to be a modest comma on the backside IN MID FEB. I mean seriously. Nobody ever said it was a lock. It was always fraught with inherent problems. The only problem being difficult to overcome is temps. We have the right tracks, right trajectories, .25-50 precip, and we're still in winter climo. Never had a chance is a silly statement. I can assure you that even if it snows and we get 3 inches he'll make a post crowing about how he called it and the "supposed real mets" missed it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Is it too late for a whiff for IAD? I am responsible for snow/ice removal at the museum and don't care to stay up late for fifteen flakes. Wait till the 0z runs for the final call but at this point your ground temps will be so high it won't matter for you anyway. Even if you do get a back end inch or so, a quick pinch of salt will do the trick with temps at 32°F and as a bonus will prevent any chance of a re-freeze early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Weenies, it is time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The area needs some good radiational cooling right now but there are alot of cloud debris. DCA is still torching at 48 degrees.....most surrounding stations are into the lower 40's/upper 30's....sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wow, so I guess everyone really did give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 cut the precip in half for me. showing like euro almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wow, so I guess everyone really did give up. Nah. It's too close to give up on. I'm not overly invested, but I'm certainly not going to use the p-word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks damn good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 SREFS got wetter, NAM gets drier. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wow, so I guess everyone really did give up. Honestly, for most of the area its starting to look a little hopeless. I doubt the thermal profile is going to change much at this point, the only hope left would be for this to amplify more then models are picking up and increase the dynamic cooling. Its a shot but a long snot. Now for our area, we still have a decent chance at something. That said, I hate having the euro out there staring us down. Even in a year like this when it has been off its game, and with all other guidance against it, I would feel better if it wasnt so adament about this being a weak strung out mess. Even up here we need heavy precip of its going to be rain, even my surface temp starts out near 40 at the onset of precip but quickly drops to around 33. If its just light precip then I get hours of 36 and muck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nam backed off on precip for sure. I expected it after 18z to be honest. But then again, precip max east shows the low gets cranking again. The Ull side of the storm is tricky. Just pray we wake up to comma head hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I expect the euro will come in wetter tonight but thats not saying much considering it barely dribbled a tenth at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 SREFS got wetter, NAM gets drier. Go figure. SREFS do not have 0z data in them, so I take them with a grain of salt really. NAM just crapped the bed for my area, precip from .65 to .25 and rates way too low to get any accumulating snow. Surface is torching unless it comes down hard. This would just be light to moderate rain with flakes mixed in at times. But then again it is the NAM, which is known to flail around badly right before a storm also. If RGEM and GFS go this direction shortly then its time to bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wow, so I guess everyone really did give up. I'm hangin' in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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