jonjon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wow, so I guess everyone really did give up. I'm hangin' in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The nam is really torching now that it's precip is fading. The DCA surface temp at 00Z is 5.1C Even at 03Z it looks ugly. Date: 27 hour Eta valid 3Z THU 14 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 51 SFC 999 57 3.6 2.6 93 1.0 3.1 327 9 276.8 277.6 276.3 289.4 4.62 2 950 464 0.2 0.1 100 0.1 0.1 349 18 277.3 278.0 275.9 288.5 4.05 3 900 897 -0.9 -1.1 99 0.2 -1.0 344 21 280.5 281.2 277.4 291.4 3.92 4 850 1352 -3.2 -3.6 97 0.4 -3.3 339 15 282.8 283.4 277.9 292.6 3.45 5 800 1830 -5.5 -6.1 95 0.6 -5.7 293 12 285.3 285.8 278.6 294.0 3.02 6 750 2334 -7.9 -8.7 94 0.8 -8.2 275 19 288.0 288.4 279.4 295.7 2.63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Punt. I'm out. Now onto extrapolation for PD aint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 We've been NAM'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 God Nammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 God Nammit At least we aren't forkyfork. He got NAM'ed by NEMO. Losing 2' had to hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The nam is really torching now that it's precip is fading. The DCA surface temp at 00Z is 5.1C Even at 03Z it looks ugly. Date: 27 hour Eta valid 3Z THU 14 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 51 SFC 999 57 3.6 2.6 93 1.0 3.1 327 9 276.8 277.6 276.3 289.4 4.62 2 950 464 0.2 0.1 100 0.1 0.1 349 18 277.3 278.0 275.9 288.5 4.05 3 900 897 -0.9 -1.1 99 0.2 -1.0 344 21 280.5 281.2 277.4 291.4 3.92 4 850 1352 -3.2 -3.6 97 0.4 -3.3 339 15 282.8 283.4 277.9 292.6 3.45 5 800 1830 -5.5 -6.1 95 0.6 -5.7 293 12 285.3 285.8 278.6 294.0 3.02 6 750 2334 -7.9 -8.7 94 0.8 -8.2 275 19 288.0 288.4 279.4 295.7 2.63 It is barely even cold rain anymore . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 It is barely even cold rain anymore .This is what happens when you need a thump an a prayer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Weird observation about the SREF, some of the members that are usually dry are running very wet, one of the NMM members puts out over an inch liquid, and some of the ARW runs that usually show stupid precip are dry. Just odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0z gfs will save us till 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 At least we aren't forkyfork. He got NAM'ed by NEMO. Losing 2' had to hurt. I think the NAM is especially bad on these really marginal temp events as it often over forcasts precip which ends up making it too cold. This is the third time this year it's been fooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This is what happens when you need a thump an a prayer Oh well I am going to pray to Washington, Lincoln and Jefferson for some . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0z gfs will save us till 6z You mean until it runs this evening, It has looked ugly pretty much every run for quite awhile in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You mean until it runs this evening, It has looked ugly pretty much every run for quite awhile in terms of temps. THe GFS at least gives a decent snowfall to northern MD. The 0z NAM would be rain everywhere, rates arent enough to cool the boundary layer even up near the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You mean until it runs this evening, It has looked ugly pretty much every run for quite awhile in terms of temps. Since that first few runs giving us a MECS, the GFS abandoned this one pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 How are you going to get snow with a low approaching from the wsw-sw and 850's at 0 to maybe -1. You asked how models showing a thump would gather interest. I answered. No other details needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Since that first few runs giving us a MECS, the GFS abandoned this one pretty quickly. I'm gonna abandon the ship tonight and not even wait up for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The nam is really torching now that it's precip is fading. The DCA surface temp at 00Z is 5.1C Looking almost incendiary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 RGEM came in weaker, strung out, and disorganized also, pretty much just light rain everywhere even up in PA. No snow outside the WV mtns. I have a feeling the euro was too weak, but this is going to end up being a compromise between the euro and the NAM/GFS and that is no good for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wait till the 0z runs for the final call but at this point your ground temps will be so high it won't matter for you anyway. Even if you do get a back end inch or so, a quick pinch of salt will do the trick with temps at 32°F and as a bonus will prevent any chance of a re-freeze early in the morning. Thanks for the tip. My La. roots didn't prep me for snow clearing, but I'm learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Thanks for the tip. My La. roots didn't prep me for snow clearing, but I'm learning. Snow clearing in the DC area? That's probably the sweetest gig in the world if you get paid regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 GFS looks a smidge better at 850 but undoubtedly flaming hot below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 We should just close the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yeah.. not even close near DC per soundings. Probably all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 it cut my precip in half too. euro wins again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 it cut my precip in half too. euro wins again doesn't really look like it gives anyone accum in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 doesn't really look like it gives anyone accum in the area. Wet non sticking flakes. It will make the clipper look like feb 2010. And it had 8-12 inches just 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 doesn't really look like it gives anyone accum in the area. nope not even up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 doesn't really look like it gives anyone accum in the area. dt is probably walking the streets and kicking stray cats right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 dt is probably walking the streets and kicking stray cats right now ahh.. that made me chuckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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