Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Backed off on precip dca-bwi from 12z. If it's a trend it's a problem but run to run is no biggie. Unless you believe the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Backed off on precip dca-bwi from 12z. If it's a trend it's a problem but run to run is no biggie. Unless you believe the euro. namprecipcomp.JPG vort is a bit less robust than 12z so it's to be expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 vort is a bit less robust than 12z so it's to be expected It's a hair split to be honest. I think these are going to be the top end of the possibilities. Less precip is a better call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Anyone have NAM temp profiles for KFDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well, no snow.. temps have always been an issue since it was always a rain to snow event, so I can see a bust because of temps and am prepared for another one of those but little or no precip just seems flat out wrong to me I guess we'll find out soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Anyone have NAM temp profiles for KFDK? They are on Plymouth. You should be snow by 30HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 satellite looks good...http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is when I start to hate winter. Day before possible snow, and temps in the mid 50's. Have to worry about temps tomorrow. Know that if it snowed 4 inches, it would probably be mostly gone by noon the next day. Nah, this gets old fast. Regardless, this is going to be a total model failure for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 DT's new map gives me 3" here in Howard County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That's pretty much the 12Z GFS surface temp. The NAM still is wet but coming down and is now warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 meh, free car wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is when I start to hate winter. Day before possible snow, and temps in the mid 50's. Have to worry about temps tomorrow. Know that if it snowed 4 inches, it would probably be mostly gone by noon the next day. Nah, this gets old fast. Regardless, this is going to be a total model failure for somebody. too bad it's not denver...mid 50's and snow the next day is pretty common. i love some mid 50's in the winter if it's not snowing outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wes is crushing all remaining hope with sadistic glee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wes is crushing all remaining hope with sadistic glee. Yea, but I can't get mad because the dude has been a rockstar this year. I've wanted him to bust a lot but he refuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Too bad there isnt any cold in front of this or it really would be a nice event, but with the crap pattern in front there is no good WAA precip out ahead of it and we are left just waiting for the backside dynamics, and even that might be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Too bad there isnt any cold in front of this or it really would be a nice event, but with the crap pattern in front there is no good WAA precip out ahead of it and we are left just waiting for the backside dynamics, and even that might be rain. Thanks deb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Too bad there isnt any cold in front of this or it really would be a nice event, but with the crap pattern in front there is no good WAA precip out ahead of it and we are left just waiting for the backside dynamics, and even that might be rain. it's mild outside even with a north wind. there's just not enough cold air available anywhere. to be honest, i'm kinda impressed that this system is even producing snow when you look at the temps across the nation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 it's mild outside even with a north wind. there's just not enough cold air available anywhere. to be honest, i'm kinda impressed that this system is even producing snow when you look at the temps across the nation right now. It's pretty common though. The nw side of ull's can produce snow in the most hostile environments. The big question is how hostile our environment is. Prob about as hostile as you can get without completely writing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 15Z SREFs are a raging inferno at the surface. DC is nearly 40 even during the precip. You've taken the warmth hyperbole to a new level.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18Z GFS is horrible. Light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18Z GFS is horrible. Light rain. Whats worse than a roasting inferno? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can't see why or how there was ever any hope on this. It's a 40 degree rainer. As it get well east of our longitude the cold air will come in but everything will be so wet from the rain that even if it snows an hour or so at night it won't accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can't see why or how there was ever any hope on this. It's a 40 degree rainer. As it get well east of our longitude the cold air will come in but everything will be so wet from the rain that even if it snows an hour or so at night it won't accumulate.?Some guidance was showing a thump. Why wouldn't there be an interest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ? Some guidance was showing a thump. Why wouldn't there be an interest? How are you going to get snow with a low approaching from the wsw-sw and 850's at 0 to maybe -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18z gfs isn't that different from 12z just a slight tick north. Just seems catastrophic when u need a trend one way bad and it takes a slight jump the other way. Certainly doesnt look like light rain. Still has a thump of precip bwi north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 How are you going to get snow with a low approaching from the wsw-sw and 850's at 0 to maybe -1. If the boundary layer was 3-4 degrees colder this setup would be fine. The direction of the low is irrelevant and we have had plenty of snow events with this type of storm track. Our air mass just sucks right now. It's 54 in owings mills right now. That's the problem nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LOL at NAM, goes from 4" at 12z to 1" at 18z for JYO 18z NAM FDK 18z NAM DCA 18z NAM MTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I guess asking whether anyone foresees a cooling trend at 0z is frowned upon. What's the sense in having a weather forum run this way? Whoever is doing this (with no apparent consistent reasoning) have you been reading this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There are birds talking to each other in my backyard, grass/weeds have started coming up. Mother nature is giving us the middle finger. Time to punt this winter Justin Tucker style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There are birds talking to each other in my backyard, grass/weeds have started coming up. Mother nature is giving us the middle finger. Time to punt this winter Justin Tucker style. Hopefully it is Billy Cundiff style and we get at least one 2"+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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