Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I bet the 18Z NAM will be the best run yet. And if not this one we still got 18z tomorrow to squeeze in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Tu 2-3 you think? I don't see anything to think that much yet confidently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well it's snowing in OKC right now, so at least we know the "cold" portion of this storm is producing. that said, i'm looking at the temps at a bunch of cities in the northern tier and there is just not much cold to be had right now across any part of the nation. we can pull this one out, but it's obviously going to require a very favorable path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 JYO 12z GFS Capture.JPG DCA 12z GFS Capture1.JPG BWI 12z GFS Capture2.JPG Not sure why the GFS wants to raise surface temps after the precip starts.. throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I bet the 18Z NAM will be the best run yet. In all seriousness, do you? Can it get much better than 12z except maybe colder? QPF I'd HIGHLY doubbt could get higher. More the merrier however sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Go to Deep Creek Lake for snow. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 236 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013 MDZ001-WVZ023-041-130345- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0010.130213T1500Z-130214T0600Z/ GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD... TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 236 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. * SNOW BEGINNING...10 AM. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW 4 PM TO 10 PM. * SNOW/ICE ENDING...1 AM * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW...SLEET AND ICE COVERED ROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 15Z srefs wetter than 9z and get .5" to BWI and a hair to the sw near or at DCA 850's look similar to NAM from what I can see with a quick eyeballing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Go to Deep Creek Lake for snow. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 236 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013 MDZ001-WVZ023-041-130345- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0010.130213T1500Z-130214T0600Z/ GARRETT-PRESTON-TUCKER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...KINGWOOD... TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS 236 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. * SNOW BEGINNING...10 AM. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW 4 PM TO 10 PM. * SNOW/ICE ENDING...1 AM * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW...SLEET AND ICE COVERED ROADS. Eh, this won't be a great event out there. Not a great setup for that area, but it is hilarious how much easier it is for it to snow out there. "Marginal" in Garrett County means 6 inches rather than 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 15Z srefs wetter than 9z and get .5" to BWI and a hair to the sw near or at DCA 850's look similar to NAM from what I can see with a quick eyeballing They look pretty solid, I'd sorta put them in the NAM camp. Haven't looked at the surface, in class, but they probably aren't too horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sref and temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nam looks a bit north thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 15Z SREFs are a raging inferno at the surface. DC is nearly 40 even during the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 15Z SREFs are a raging inferno at the surface. DC is nearly 40 even during the precip. I thought they have been like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO ens mean gots nada.. but we're too close in for that. ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I thought they have been like that 3z was pretty cold...9z was a torch. 15z seems almost identical to 9z...maybe a smidgen colder, but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO ens mean gots nada.. but we're too close in for that. ;p I can believe too warm, but not nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yellows on sim radar at 24 hrs around HGR http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yellows on sim radar at 24 hrs around HGR http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2F nam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif The only pocket of sleet in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 all he!! breaks loose after 27 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_027_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nice slug of moisture between 24 and 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not that different from 12z at all. 850 and surface a bit more east but insignificant. Less robust precip in wv on the back side but not much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nice slug of moisture between 24 and 30. Too bad its still rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Too bad its still rain Should be some impressive drop sizes. Take pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Warmer. 950 very briefly makes it to freezing around 2z. Could easily be a T run at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Warmer. 950 very briefly makes it to freezing around 2z. Could easily be a T run at DCA. The RAP will take care of that measly problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Still a north of the beltway storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 I can believe too warm, but not nada well, no snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The RPM rap will take care of that measly problem Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think by 30HR it would be really sloppy snow up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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