Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Return of the vinyl who likes Sat/Sun as do I. Where is cold air for VD? On the computer model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I guess a small takeaway is the euro shows precip on the nw side of the vort (sw va) but it's not expansive or heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On the computer model not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 not really Then the Gfs wouldn't have several inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How does pd3 look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 JMA: 2.11.2006 GFS: 2.14.13 For the sake of this subforum we better hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Return of the vinyl who likes Sat/Sun as do I. Where is cold air for VD? unless the northern S/W weakens or speeds up, nowhere. I have my doubts about VD because of the BL... having it at night helps, but I still have my doubts. The biggest thing that scares me for VD is the torch isn't just near the ground, its all the way up to around 900, that screams rain to me (this is the model verbatim, don't know if I buy it yet). I want to resolve strength, track issues before I worry about temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 not really 40, and rain to 35 and rain maybe mixed with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Then the Gfs would have several inches of snow I thought we were talking about the Euro gfs was yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Then the Gfs wouldn't have several inches of snow GFS verbatim is not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro with .02 for jyo Gfs with .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Then the Gfs wouldn't have several inches of snow Basically we need to pray the gfs is right AND the vort closes off AND the 850 low gets cranking a little earlier. It's uphill for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How does pd3 look? nada thru Sat morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 there's gonna be oes off the coast of pensacola on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs is snow between 75 and 78 hours true I didn't look at 78... figured most of the precip was over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Over the last 4 runs the NAM has noticeably trended toward the GFS camp. Still shows a cutter on the 06Z but shows a quicker progression of the SW with the trough holding a neutral tilt longer before going negative. At this point it shows a closed 500 low running through W MD into central PA ys previous runs showing it in North Western/ Western PA. I would not be surprised whatsoever if by this time tomorrow we are talking about the trough and any associated cutoff low dropping through our region. The 06Z is also once again showing a secondary forming off the VA coast but has a sloppy look to it. I have to wonder if by this time tomorrow the NAM goes completely away from that idea and instead shows 1 low sliding through the general MD/VA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The off run of the GFS is once again showing a much weaker SW though it does show the same general passage of the vort through our region. 00Z vs. 06Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looking at BL and surface temps on the 06Z is not a pretty picture. Considering it has cut back fairly substantially on the precip, that could potentially overcome the temp issues, about the only snow we would probably see would be some potential mercy flakes in NE MD as the low deepened as it exited out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 06z is an off run i wait til 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 06z is an off run i wait til 12z Same here. I know many will claim that the verification of the off runs are close to the major ones but I still take them with a grain of salt. Maybe it's just my prejudice from years past where they were more apt to show screwy and off solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On a positive note the GFS clown maps for the 06Z do show a 2 inch snowfall from DC north into southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Anything is possible at this point: NAM = rain GFS = rain to snow (maybe 1-3 in DC area if lucky) EURO = snow flurries And once again it is maddening with only 48 hours to go. The main thing I am watching for today is how the different models handle the L development off NC - we need a perfect placement for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 6z NAM was a move in the right direction from previous NAM runs move the NAM vort 75 miles south and it looks like one of the decent GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 03 SREFS were again wetter with a more up the coast look than the 21z run. I think there's more evidence in the camp against suppressed than there is for it. Latest SREFS are out in about 15-20 minutes. Will be interested to see what they look like along with the latest NAM. We are getting within the 48-60 window, so I don't think we can summarily dismiss any model at this point, including the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 03 SREFS were again wetter with a more up the coast look than the 21z run. I think there's more evidence in the camp against suppressed than there is for it. Latest SREFS are out in about 15-20 minutes. Will be interested to see what they look like along with the latest NAM. We are getting within the 48-60 window, so I don't think we can summarily dismiss any model at this point, including the NAM. 9z got dryer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 03 SREFS were again wetter with a more up the coast look than the 21z run. I think there's more evidence in the camp against suppressed than there is for it. Latest SREFS are out in about 15-20 minutes. Will be interested to see what they look like along with the latest NAM. We are getting within the 48-60 window, so I don't think we can summarily dismiss any model at this point, including the NAM. With the NAM having a sharp SW and vort on steroids if it does come around to the GFS idea of it's placement I think the potential for overcoming the BL and surface temp issue might be taken care of. I have a feeling the NAM will finally end up with a similar solution as the GFS on the placement but I do have to wonder if we will see it as robust at 500's as we are seeing now. Even though we may not see much from this it has been an enjoyable storm to follow on the models for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now is the time to pay close attn to temp trends too. Unless something changes irt hp to our north, the only thing that can save us is a deepening 850 at the right time and spot. Weaker trends with the vort and lp should make us worry a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM thru 21 essentially looks the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At 24 I'm sure Bob could correct me but looks as tho NAM is much wetter with precip across TX comparing 6z to 12z don't know if it has any implications downstream however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 In a few hours might have to put storm in quotes like v-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.