Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 im worried now...this is the euro's wheelhouse...if we are going to get snow it should show us getting punched in the gut by now You can see it @ 500 over tx/ok. Not the same at all. Not sure why such a spread at such short lead. It's hard to doubt the nam inside of 36 + the gfs but euro leaves a doubt sandwich with bacon and cheese on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 One thing I like..The solution at 0z is nothing like 12z...there is pretty much no way the 12z solution is right....the euro has no continuity...it is lost right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 im worried now...this is the euro's wheelhouse...if we are going to get snow it should show us getting punched in the gut by now Gfs in wheelhouse too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Return of the vinyl who likes Sat/Sun as do I. Where is cold air for VD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 don't have access but is there any baginess in the SW with the euro (ie not ejecting the full S/W?) That would play in to usual biases, though usually not this early in the game. there was at 12z and it has been corrected...maybe there will be better sfc reflection tomorrow and we can get on with the business of worrying about it being 100 degrees when the precip starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 So you think it is highly unlikely that its usual bias of holding back energy is unlikely because we are within 72 hours and that usually happens farther out?. It's not really like that. Looks close enough to the gfs through like 42 but then the vort halts it's dig and goes the other way @ 48. Then holds the more sheared look through the end. Very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's not really like that. Looks close enough to the gfs through like 42 but then the vort halts it's dig and goes the other way @ 48. Then holds the more sheared look through the end. Very different. Thanks Bob, I appreciate the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 One thing I like..The solution at 0z is nothing like 12z...there is pretty much no way the 12z solution is right....the euro has no continuity...it is lost right now... I agree. It's a complete outlier. If it showed a storm right now with all other models out to sea...you would have your doubts also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Return of the vinyl who likes Sat/Sun as do I. Where is cold air for VD? On the computer model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I guess a small takeaway is the euro shows precip on the nw side of the vort (sw va) but it's not expansive or heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On the computer model not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 JMA: 2.11.2006 GFS: 2.14.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 not really Then the Gfs wouldn't have several inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How does pd3 look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 JMA: 2.11.2006 GFS: 2.14.13 For the sake of this subforum we better hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Return of the vinyl who likes Sat/Sun as do I. Where is cold air for VD? unless the northern S/W weakens or speeds up, nowhere. I have my doubts about VD because of the BL... having it at night helps, but I still have my doubts. The biggest thing that scares me for VD is the torch isn't just near the ground, its all the way up to around 900, that screams rain to me (this is the model verbatim, don't know if I buy it yet). I want to resolve strength, track issues before I worry about temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 not really 40, and rain to 35 and rain maybe mixed with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Then the Gfs would have several inches of snow I thought we were talking about the Euro gfs was yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Then the Gfs wouldn't have several inches of snow GFS verbatim is not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro with .02 for jyo Gfs with .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Then the Gfs wouldn't have several inches of snow Basically we need to pray the gfs is right AND the vort closes off AND the 850 low gets cranking a little earlier. It's uphill for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How does pd3 look? nada so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How does pd3 look? nada thru Sat morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 there's gonna be oes off the coast of pensacola on sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs is snow between 75 and 78 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs is snow between 75 and 78 hours true I didn't look at 78... figured most of the precip was over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 screw this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Over the last 4 runs the NAM has noticeably trended toward the GFS camp. Still shows a cutter on the 06Z but shows a quicker progression of the SW with the trough holding a neutral tilt longer before going negative. At this point it shows a closed 500 low running through W MD into central PA ys previous runs showing it in North Western/ Western PA. I would not be surprised whatsoever if by this time tomorrow we are talking about the trough and any associated cutoff low dropping through our region. The 06Z is also once again showing a secondary forming off the VA coast but has a sloppy look to it. I have to wonder if by this time tomorrow the NAM goes completely away from that idea and instead shows 1 low sliding through the general MD/VA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The off run of the GFS is once again showing a much weaker SW though it does show the same general passage of the vort through our region. 00Z vs. 06Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looking at BL and surface temps on the 06Z is not a pretty picture. Considering it has cut back fairly substantially on the precip, that could potentially overcome the temp issues, about the only snow we would probably see would be some potential mercy flakes in NE MD as the low deepened as it exited out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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