Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The problem is that the temps are in this case related to the vertical motion and precipitation rates. Decrease them and the temps will be warmer. That's the rub and why going towards a temp profile compromise probably makes sense. Yea, and it sucks. In mid feb no less. You guys have more skill in your fingernail than me with the thermal stuff. I'm good with the general ideas but I'll always look to you and some others for the important distinctions. I'm hanging my hat on good dynamics as the 850 moves east of us and let the chips fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 JYO 12z GFS DCA 12z GFS BWI 12z GFS JYO 12z NAM DCA 12z NAM BWI 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We better hope the gfs/nam are really better than the euro. It does not like backside dynamics on this run at all. Practically dry in tn-ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro is a non storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ouch. .1 through the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Man, this kind of spread at this stage is evil. Pure evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 next Most people were hoping for a good track and we got it but it is just too damn dry and torchy. What a shame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just for reference... the .1 line runs central wv to dc and basically up 95 to philly. .25 contour is straight across southern va and up the northern neck and es shore of md. One of the models is going to be very wrong. eek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Oh well, fook the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well, it either proves the Euro ain't what it used to be or is magic I think A and not B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro is flatter @ 500 but not glaring. It's also been flatter the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 next lol, the nam may end up being right but it is a dangerous model to hang your snow hope to when the GFS and Euro don't like the event much. Neither do most of the 09Z sref plum diagrams at least in terms of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro is flatter @ 500 but not glaring. It's also been flatter the whole time. Flatter will get you less dynamics and precip. It may be underdoing the precip but the nma is probalby doing just the opposite. This reminds me a little of the earlier winter storm warning bust with the nam loving it and being too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro is a non storm \ But as warm as the GFS is it also isn't much of a storm. Amybe we see car topper if it were correct. The euro would be just plain light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Waiting for the next set of SREFs before I make another forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So we are fooked? Euro hates us? Isn't that surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 My drive back and forth to Fairfax tomorrow night to see Mumford and Sons could be...challenging. Hell of a band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hi It's the NAM so I'm going to wait before I celebrate Same model that had a blip a couple runs and suggested max totsl snowfalll for nyc 24 hours before last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Crazy that the models are so different with strength of the vort so close to the event. Someone's model is going to bust horrendously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This was from this morning mind you -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This was from this morning mind you -- http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif And the best part was the forecaster, one of the best of all time. I used to look forward to his winter updates on the TWC like it was gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 And the best part was the forecaster, one of the best of all time. I used to look forward to his winter updates on the TWC like it was gospel. Really? I didnt know that was Paul Kocin and he had moved to HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm with 1-3 Baltimore metro. T-1" Washington DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm with 1-3 Baltimore metro. T-1" Washington DC area Tu 2-3 you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Really? I didnt know that was Paul Kocin and he had moved to HPC Yea i met him at hpc a few times yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 \ But as warm as the GFS is it also isn't much of a storm. Amybe we see car topper if it were correct. The euro would be just plain light rain. Wes. I can remember almost 1 week ago you told me that if I liked light rain and fog this is the storm for me. You made that comment after I posted that I thought the storm looked interesting. If nothing else, the model has been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Really? I didnt know that was Paul Kocin and he had moved to HPC He's been there a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I bet the 18Z NAM will be the best run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 JYO 12z GFS Capture.JPG DCA 12z GFS Capture1.JPG BWI 12z GFS Capture2.JPG Not sure why the GFS wants to raise surface temps after the precip starts.. throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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