Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM > GFS :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well even though they are useless, GFS snowmap on raleigh still gives Baltimore 2-3"..Ill run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS blues us all pretty good. Comes down to changeover time and how much is left. no way the soundings are that good on this run around here imo. .1" of wet snow isn't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Pretty sad when a storm track is near perfect and you get rain in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did I read the pre dawn LWX disco correctly???? Possibility of watches for N/W? Get that out of here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Pretty sad when a storm track is near perfect and you get rain in February Life of a MA snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think this one is so marginal and will have such a razor-thin R/S line that we can't expect the models to all agree perfectly. Unfortunately we'll have to just watch temps, dew points, and radar on this one and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did I read the pre dawn LWX disco correctly???? Possibility of watches for N/W? Get that out of here! What's wrong with that, it is entirely possibly PSU gets 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm almost close to going back full pessimist. I'll give it another 24 hours. Gonna hang till I see the whites of the storms eyes. PD3 is my last dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm just going to go with the NAM sounding, the GFS thumps the shiat out of us relative to precip. Final Call DCA: 1.1" IAD: 2.8" JYO: 3.8" FDK: 4" DMW: 4.1" Hoff: 4.7" BWI: 2.4" MTN: 2.9" Golden Eggs: 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did I read the pre dawn LWX disco correctly???? Possibility of watches for N/W? Get that out of here! That will change for sure. At this point just pick your preferred map. It is going to be really wet snow for sure and may last a nano second with our Feb sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That will change for sure. At this point just pick your preferred map. It is going to be really wet snow for sure and may last a nano second with our Feb sun angle. Though I don't see the true necessity in watches, I find it meaningless that just because it will melt the next morning, that would affect anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm just going to go with the NAM sounding, the GFS thumps the shiat out of us relative to precip. Final Call DCA: 1.1" IAD: 2.8" JYO: 3.8" FDK: 4" DMW: 4.1" Hoff: 4.7" BWI: 2.4" MTN: 2.9" Golden Eggs: 2.6" I, JYO, get a tenth more? What changed from your previous forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I, JYO, get a tenth more? What changed from your previous forecast? Yes, lol, nam weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm almost close to going back full pessimist. I'll give it another 24 hours. Gonna hang till I see the whites of the storms eyes. PD3 is my last dance. Not so fast. You'll get drawn in one more time the middle of next week. Then you can put away your dancing shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Though I don't see the true necessity in watches, I find it meaningless that just because it will melt the next morning, that would affect anything. Not saying that either. Just keepin' it real for folks with children and dogs who like to play on the snow. This may not cut it. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I could see DC proper get 1-2 hours of 33.8 and snow at the tail end...maybe 0.08" liquid or something like that...up to an inch on cartops?...I'm not sure parsing models makes that much sense now. they probably won't pick up on dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm not sure parsing models makes that much sense now. they probably won't pick up on dynamics Well put. It's a lock we start as rain. The comma'ish feature is the make or break. Hires nam shows some nice but small banding as it moves through wv. Good indication that the nam thinks the cold side of the low will be modestly dynamic. It's pretty likely the jackpot with be a relatively small area. Temps favor n-w but the backside of the low doesn't care. It's going move some bands through wherever it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does the EURO even matter today for this storm? Just curious. Seems like we are hugging the NAM for all it's worth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm just going to go with the NAM sounding, the GFS thumps the shiat out of us relative to precip. Final Call DCA: 1.1" IAD: 2.8" JYO: 3.8" FDK: 4" DMW: 4.1" Hoff: 4.7" BWI: 2.4" MTN: 2.9" Golden Eggs: 2.6" Golden Eggs being Back River, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does the EURO even matter today for this storm? Just curious. Seems like we are hugging the NAM for all it's worth? euro always matters. If it comes in significantly weaker and drier then you have to consider it. If it comes in similar then we have consensus. Which would be nice. Then we can just dissect dynamics instead of freaking out over the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah the gfs soundings for near dc are rough.. better skipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 FWIW, NAM is winning in TX/OK from what I am reading from brettjrob and baro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Pretty sad when a storm track is near perfect and you get rain in February It's the new winter event,hopefully we have a dry summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS: NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah the gfs soundings for near dc are rough.. better skipped Yeah, that's brutal. You'd need to get north of Baltimore to have a shot on the GFS. Even KAPG is very sketchy 36-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nova, those are 6 hour panels so it's not a good representation. Use precip totals when comparing. Nam is wetter but gfs is plenty fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol http://tweetimgs.pmarshwx.com/pmarshwx/20130212/20130212140242.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ick. Barely too warm at the peak of the precip IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah...I'm not sure. The fundamental physics are the same. Maybe someone can jump in with specific (and more accurate) details. The initial conditions (in the form of RAOBs, surface obs, etc...) are generally at a coarser resolution than the model gridding. Doubly so with the hi-res NAM. So, those values are interpolated to a finer mesh and then the model is run forward. IMO, the hi-res is good for terrain-related questions (CAD, LEF, etc...) but doesn't really buy us much here. Actually, it depends on what people are referring to when they say "Hi-Res NAM". The NAM is actually run as a complex set of nested models, including the 12km parent nest (the usual NAM, huge, nearly hemispheric domain)....but then there are several one-way nests that are run inside of it (the 4km CONUS nest, which is what I assume people refer to as the Hi-Res NAM, Alaska nest, relocatable 1.5 km fire wx nest etc.). The initial conditions are not that much coarser than the 12 km resolution, IIRC, but they do use an "unfilled grid", so it may be something like half of the spatial resolution as the model....but you're right about the 4km nest (it's essentially just interpolated/scaled down to that grid). However, there are also the Hi-Res window runs (NMM and ARW), which are separate from the nested NAM runs......and I think these are just initialized from the NAM ics (interpolated down). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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