PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:11 PM, Ian said: yeah the gfs soundings for near dc are rough.. better skipped Yeah, that's brutal. You'd need to get north of Baltimore to have a shot on the GFS. Even KAPG is very sketchy 36-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nova, those are 6 hour panels so it's not a good representation. Use precip totals when comparing. Nam is wetter but gfs is plenty fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol http://tweetimgs.pmarshwx.com/pmarshwx/20130212/20130212140242.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ick. Barely too warm at the peak of the precip IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:18 PM, WxUSAF said: Yeah...I'm not sure. The fundamental physics are the same. Maybe someone can jump in with specific (and more accurate) details. The initial conditions (in the form of RAOBs, surface obs, etc...) are generally at a coarser resolution than the model gridding. Doubly so with the hi-res NAM. So, those values are interpolated to a finer mesh and then the model is run forward. IMO, the hi-res is good for terrain-related questions (CAD, LEF, etc...) but doesn't really buy us much here. Actually, it depends on what people are referring to when they say "Hi-Res NAM". The NAM is actually run as a complex set of nested models, including the 12km parent nest (the usual NAM, huge, nearly hemispheric domain)....but then there are several one-way nests that are run inside of it (the 4km CONUS nest, which is what I assume people refer to as the Hi-Res NAM, Alaska nest, relocatable 1.5 km fire wx nest etc.). The initial conditions are not that much coarser than the 12 km resolution, IIRC, but they do use an "unfilled grid", so it may be something like half of the spatial resolution as the model....but you're right about the 4km nest (it's essentially just interpolated/scaled down to that grid). However, there are also the Hi-Res window runs (NMM and ARW), which are separate from the nested NAM runs......and I think these are just initialized from the NAM ics (interpolated down). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Doesn't Wes usually say to go with the NAM temp profiles this close to an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:18 PM, NOVAForecaster said: Ick. Barely too warm at the peak of the precip IMBY That's not bad...almost certainly snow unless precip rates are very light. Freezing level looks to be around 950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:16 PM, Bob Chill said: Nova, those are 6 hour panels so it's not a good representation. Use precip totals when comparing. Nam is wetter but gfs is plenty fine. Think he may have been trying to show the big differences with the BL thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:16 PM, Ian said: lol http://tweetimgs.pmarshwx.com/pmarshwx/20130212/20130212140242.jpg 6GZUss4K.jpg omg, that is classic. that's as good a laugh as i've had in a while. ralph wiggum as the NAM. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Exactly. It's a pretty decent sized difference between the NAM nd GFS at this time. On 2/12/2013 at 4:24 PM, showmethesnow said: Think he may have been trying to show the big differences with the BL thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:34 PM, NOVAForecaster said: Exactly. It's a pretty decent sized difference between the NAM nd GFS at this time. Gotchya. bl thicknesses isn't something I look at too much. I usually go to sounding for mby and not worry about everyone else. lol NAM has the heaviest rates so it's the model to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:36 PM, zwyts said: Congrats to Bob Chill...GFS led the way on this one, even though the outcome will probably be underwhelming..It is the 2nd best model since we don't have good graphics for the UKmet, it holds its own with the euro...it impressed me this storm..euro was a fumbling mess for a while Appreciate it but it's bittersweet. I just wanted to break the damn streak. Not off the table but teetering precariously on the edge. The euro is always a little off when a sw digs through the 4 corners. Sometimes it holds it back when they're strong and sometimes it doesn't pick up on it when they're weak. My reasoning was the gfs/nam handling of the sw early on. They were so steadfast (and believable) that it was hard not to go with it. But at the end of the day the mission is in jeopardy and has been for days. I've looked at so many panels in the last week that my pupils are 16:9 and I need laser surgery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Temps are still an issue. Even N/W of the cities. I think we all see snow. But I dont know if that 2" streak is gonna fall this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The problem with snow IMBY is that it's going to start as rain. Temps at the start will be low 40s or upper 30s. Soundings show surface-925mb temps above freezing through about the first half of the precip on the NAM. Then, it finally cools down enough for snow to reach the ground but by then the heaviest rates might be moving away. Combined with the wet ground and the barely 32° surface/2m temps it'll be hard to get more than 1.5" snow unless it cools down faster. I do like the cooler trend on all models, but the NAM is cooler and wetter than both the GFS and Euro. I like a compromise between the NAM and GFS because IMO the Euro hasn't modeled this one that well. In my backyard I am guessing .3" of rain changing to snow and then around an inch of sloppy wet snow overnight. The heaviest precip should be around midnight on Thursday AM and clearing out around rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS is still furthest north on the 12Z runs so far. 25 miles is splitting hairs I guess, but for R/S line in the metro, that makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:43 PM, Bob Chill said: Appreciate it but it's bittersweet. I just wanted to break the damn streak. Not off the table but teetering precariously on the edge. The euro is always a little off when a sw digs through the 4 corners. Sometimes it holds it back when they're strong and sometimes it doesn't pick up on it when they're weak. My reasoning was the gfs/nam handling of the sw early on. They were so steadfast (and believable) that it was hard not to go with it. But at the end of the day the mission is in jeopardy and has been for days. I've looked at so many panels in the last week that my pupils are 16:9 and I need laser surgery. Don't quit yet Bob. This hasn't happened yet, and the NAM did get colder (didn't it? too lazy to look). These always seem to trend colder as we get close. Get some radiational cooling tonight, good thick cloud cover in the morning, precip to limit heating, thump as daylight wanes.......it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:30 PM, zwyts said: he usually is very skeptical because of the cold bias...if you split the GFS and NAM then IAD region had a shot at accumulation after say hour 34 or 35 I just finished an article so I'll hold off saying much until after Jason gets it up. I will say I think that a compromise between the two models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 5.5+2.5= 8 /2 = 4 wes, thanks buddy. I wish thay was what you meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:07 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Don't quit yet Bob. This hasn't happened yet, and the NAM did get colder (didn't it? too lazy to look). These always seem to trend colder as we get close. Get some radiational cooling tonight, good thick cloud cover in the morning, precip to limit heating, thump as daylight wanes.......it can happen. Didn't mean to imply that I quit. It's a real a threat as any we've had this year (boy that says alot). The wildcard is the dynamics. Zwyts said it concisely. The swath of precip running from ar/ok trough tn-ky-wv says a lot. That's our money maker and it really won't be resolved until we're really close in. I will say that I doubt that it gets any better than the last nam precip wise. Most likely less if I had to guess. We'll micro-analyzing rates and temps until the cows come home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well this isn't terrible... Most falls during the Wednesday 7pm to Thursday 1am timetable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 1-2 N/W of the beltways. T for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:21 PM, birdsofprey02 said: Well this isn't terrible... Most falls during the Wednesday 7pm to Thursday 1am timetable. Would be better if the 1-2/2-4 areas were combined and noted as 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dc an inch id say, my 1.1 for dca probably will happen at ians, but they wont report that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:17 PM, Bob Chill said: Didn't mean to imply that I quit. It's a real a threat as any we've had this year (boy that says alot). The wildcard is the dynamics. Zwyts said it concisely. The swath of precip running from ar/ok trough tn-ky-wv says a lot. That's our money maker and it really won't be resolved until we're really close in. I will say that I doubt that it gets any better than the last nam precip wise. Most likely less if I had to guess. We'll micro-analyzing rates and temps until the cows come home. The problem is that the temps are in this case related to the vertical motion and precipitation rates. Decrease them and the temps will be warmer. That's the rub and why going towards a temp profile compromise probably makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 FWIW the latest HPC ensembles are south of the preferred position and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I would love nothing more than the axis of heaviest bands to set up through DC. Precip output has hinted at that. RAP sim is gonna be rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:21 PM, birdsofprey02 said: Well this isn't terrible... Most falls during the Wednesday 7pm to Thursday 1am timetable. I personally would take that and run, but are those maps ever accurate? I guess it can provide some added food for thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 that snow forecast from LWX has been on their site since at least 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Surprised it took so long for someone to post it then. On 2/12/2013 at 5:29 PM, mitchnick said: that snow forecast from LWX has been on their site since at least 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:32 PM, NOVAForecaster said: Surprised it took so long for someone to post it then. I think most know it's not very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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