PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like 12z RGEM came north... and its going to be a no snow go Dude, please don't post about these crap models unless they show something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 RGEM is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does it? I always thought it was the same channel same show just with 1080 instead of Apple 2e dot matrix. Yeah...I'm not sure. The fundamental physics are the same. Maybe someone can jump in with specific (and more accurate) details. The initial conditions (in the form of RAOBs, surface obs, etc...) are generally at a coarser resolution than the model gridding. Doubly so with the hi-res NAM. So, those values are interpolated to a finer mesh and then the model is run forward. IMO, the hi-res is good for terrain-related questions (CAD, LEF, etc...) but doesn't really buy us much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 RGEM is garbage. NAM > RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What does the NOGAPS say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dude, please don't post about these crap models unless they show something good. That logic is infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM > RGEM NAM < CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah...I'm not sure. The fundamental physics are the same. Maybe someone can jump in with specific (and more accurate) details. The initial conditions (in the form of RAOBs, surface obs, etc...) are generally at a coarser resolution than the model gridding. Doubly so with the hi-res NAM. So, those values are interpolated to a finer mesh and then the model is run forward. IMO, the hi-res is good for terrain-related questions (CAD, LEF, etc...) but doesn't really buy us much here. If dtk sees this he'll chime in. That guy brings new meaning to the term model analysis. Sharp fella. So, over or under on 500 radar hallucination posts tomorrow in the obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM < CRAS Pretty sure the NAM is the best model for now. At least till it shifts 1000 miles south next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 dreams > reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 We should let the punters back. Every 0.2" counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM > RGEM The clownfish is making you funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Pretty sure the NAM is the best model for now. At least till it shifts 1000 miles south next run. I'll probably get blasted for this, but I'd think a north trend would be more likely than south based upon current satellite and radar. I don't know why so many are throwing off on the NAM solution right now. It has been pretty consistent with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We should let the punters back. Every 0.2" counts. Ban em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Doesn't the NAVGEM (NOGAPS replacement) start later today? I wonder what it will say and if it will be better than the NOGAPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We should let the punters back. Every 0.2" counts. yea, I've been an ass of sorts with punters. And that's not really my style. I just hope those (without a solid understanding of models) that did can recognize that this was never really a puntable setup with proper expectations. You can punt a clipper with a nw vort pass or a miller b dryslot, or even a cutter with front end disaster, but you should never punt a vort and 850 like this. This is a classic 3-6" MA snow setup. We just got hosed with temps but they weren't so far out of line that it "couldn't" still snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah...I'm not sure. The fundamental physics are the same. Maybe someone can jump in with specific (and more accurate) details. The initial conditions (in the form of RAOBs, surface obs, etc...) are generally at a coarser resolution than the model gridding. Doubly so with the hi-res NAM. So, those values are interpolated to a finer mesh and then the model is run forward. IMO, the hi-res is good for terrain-related questions (CAD, LEF, etc...) but doesn't really buy us much here. If dtk sees this he'll chime in. That guy brings new meaning to the term model analysis. Sharp fella. So, over or under on 500 radar hallucination posts tomorrow in the obs thread? Are you referring to "precip hole" hallucinations? If so, I'll take the over times two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like 12z RGEM came north... and its going to be a no snow go Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Precip looks pretty good on the GFS. Temps are awful at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 dreams > reality +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We still need some improvement from the GFS..its possible its 850 0c line could be a little off though with where the low is..I still kinda like the NAM and Im not being a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Precip looks pretty good on the GFS. Temps are awful at 00z. DC sucks... N Md ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is a stage where i prefer the nam on temps, not just because theyre colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We still need some improvement from the GFS..its possible its 850 0c line could be a little off though with where the low is..I still kinda like the NAM and Im not being a weenie Yea low track is pretty optimal, vort and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 still dont know if this is any good but it's gone down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is a stage where i prefer the nam on temps, not just because theyre colder But the Nam usually runs to cold so we are not in a great place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS blues us all pretty good. Comes down to changeover time and how much is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 But the Nam usually runs to cold so we are not in a great place. Usually, that hasnt been the case this year, its torched the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 But the Nam usually runs to cold so we are not in a great place. Im not sure thats true...Its higer res...I was under the assumption that the GFS is usually a touch too cold and IF the NAM has a temp bias it would be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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