Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gotta luv the precip back in ky and wv. Nam wants to crank this thing bad. DC gets a congrats on precip. What kind is a different issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 My all in call that got its legs broken just went from a wheelchair to crutches. Hi It's the NAM so I'm going to wait before I celebrate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hi It's the NAM so I'm going to wait before I celebrate I'm just relishing for the next 45 mins. You know how we roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I know the new run will be out shortly, but last night's 6z of the RGEM looked darn nice at 48 hrs do you mean this mornings 6z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 nobody talked about how the euro went back to its monday solution of hardly any precip lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 isnt this where the NAM is suppose to be a useful model? the storm begins in 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Storm cancel uncancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 isnt this where the NAM is suppose to be a useful model? the storm begins in 30 hours For whatever reason the NAM has been useful for the full 84 hours with this storm. Euro Shmuro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HiRes NAM has the changeover at around 23z, after about 0.25" of rain. Surface temps around 36 at DCA falling to 34 by 00z and 33 by 03z. Looks like about another 0.25" of precip falls after changeover. 850 low skirts DCA to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HiRes NAM has the changeover at around 23z, after about 0.25" of rain. Surface temps around 36 at DCA falling to 34 by 00z and 33 by 03z. Looks like about another 0.25" of precip falls after changeover. 850 low skirts DCA to the south. I will be the weenie... ratios would be like what? 7-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HiRes NAM has the changeover at around 23z, after about 0.25" of rain. Surface temps around 36 at DCA falling to 34 by 00z and 33 by 03z. Looks like about another 0.25" of precip falls after changeover. 850 low skirts DCA to the south. If DCA gets 0.25" of QPF with surface temps above freezing, I'm guessing they report about 0.4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 do you mean this mornings 6z run? 1AM is last night to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro/GFS drier, NAM - wetter DCA can get something out of this, but as Bob said we don't know how cold it can get to make it meaningful. This year everything has trended colder, the bright side of MA '13 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Storm cancel uncancel? That would leave you at canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Cancel that then. That would leave you at canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I will be the weenie... ratios would be like what? 7-1? Not sure. Not good, I can surmise that. If DCA gets 0.25" of QPF with surface temps above freezing, I'm guessing they report about 0.4" of snow. NAM precip * 0.5 (QPF adjustment factor) * 0.5 (surface temps) * 0.5 (DCA reporting) * 7 (ratio) = 0.2" snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Had a feeling this would trend colder. I bet 18Z will be even better. If we get a NAM/GFS type solution with a nice slug of precip in the cold sector, it would be really hard not to get at least some snow in mid february. My fear would be a euro solution where the thing is just too weak and strung out to develop any appreciable cold sector precip. Light wont do it. We need the "thump" scenario. I am leaning towards the american guidance, but even in a year when the euro has had its troubles you can never feel too confident when its staring you down like this and saying NO. Frankly in a year like this I can never be too confident even if all the guidance is saying yes. BUt if we do get the vort to track south of us, and the stronger more amped solutions are correct I feel we do ok, I want the more dynamic solution and we can take our chances on the thermals. ANd I mean that for the whole area, not just my location. I would love to get a delay out of this in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 For whatever reason the NAM has been useful for the full 84 hours with this storm. Euro Shmuro Where is Matt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Where is Matt? He punted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z RGEM at 24 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gifLooks good with the h5 in NE AR and 1006 L in NE AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Where is Matt? Locker room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Where is Matt? He was getting a little edgy yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Locker room I hear the rumblings of the AMWX bus. Randy is itchin' to hop in the driver's seat. Matt will be left behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Matt is hoping his Feb snow forecast fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM precip * 0.5 (QPF adjustment factor) * 0.5 (surface temps) * 0.5 (DCA reporting) * 7 (ratio) = 0.2" snowfall This sounds about right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Beware the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 nobody talked about how the euro went back to its monday solution of hardly any precip lol? NAM > Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Helps that hi res nam is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Helps that hi res nam is nice. Does it? I always thought it was the same channel same show just with 1080 instead of Apple 2e dot matrix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like 12z RGEM came north... and its going to be a no snow go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.