Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 3z SREFs were the coldest I've yet seen. Plumes give an average of just over 2" at BWI and just under 2" at DCA and IAD. 9z should be out soon.^This post will un-punt some punters.My bar was set @ breaking the 2" streak @ dca no matter how messy it is. Seemed like a reasonable bar but ma snow gods seem to be unreasonable. Regardless, I'm hugging 3z srefs like a mom and a newborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm still in. Same for pd3. 12z will help determined my next move. Thump is the key I don't think you can even punt a vort like this in mid feb no matter how loaded with issues it is. Seeing flakes come down is a decent chance for most folks. Hitting the 2" promised land is going to take some work. If we don't will I be banned for losing your kids' retirement fund? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow true USAF, the sref plumes weren't bad, and the 850 temps were colder in addition. With a decent thump, we'd certainly be able to verify the output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I still like where I sit with this storm - both GFS and NAM give me 2-3 inches or so of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I still like where I sit with this storm - both GFS and NAM give me 2-3 inches or so of snow Final call coming after the NAM, up at Towson waiting for class. Our map will be out later, but I can assume what we will put together, looking like most likely 2-4 for Towson-Cockeysville-DMW-FDK-HGR (maybe over to APG.) BWI/MTN/ just north of NAK likely 1-3 (1-2 south), DCA .75-1.5, IAD 1-2. These are ranges, exact numbers for fun to come shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I still like where I sit with this storm - both GFS and NAM give me 2-3 inches or so of snow Go join the PA subforum. you don't represent the true MA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Columbia should get 1-3, its okay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Final call coming after the NAM, up at Towson waiting for class. Our map will be out later, but I can assume what we will put together, looking like most likely 2-4 for Towson-Cockeysville-DMW-FDK-HGR (maybe over to APG.) BWI/MTN/ just north of NAK likely 1-3 (1-2 south), DCA .75-1.5, IAD 1-2. These are ranges, exact numbers for fun to come shortly. This still a rain to thump scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This still a rain to thump scenario? Most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Most definitely hopefully. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Columbia should get 1-3, its okay! Thanks for talking me off the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Go join the PA subforum. you don't represent the true MA! dont hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 fixed I guess, if the euro's right go somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z is really looking nice thru 27 hrs comparing it to the 0z, which I thought was the best run so far, it's better imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM looking solid, like the heights out in front of the s/w, vort should make a good pass ^agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z is really looking nice thru 27 hrs comparing it to the 0z, which I thought was the best run so far, it's better imho Looks better with the side of the storm that matters to us. Suckers run. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z is really looking nice thru 27 hrs comparing it to the 0z, which I thought was the best run so far, it's better imho Initially the 12Z NAM appeared rather warm, but temperatures soon crashed a fair amount, and then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Where are you all seeing the NAM? It is not running right on Raleigh's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I like the NAM...doesn't look bad thus far at all. Stronger sfc reflection could help thump us quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 at 30 hrs, there is a touch of yellow on the sim rad on the WV/KY border http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_030_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Below freezing at 950mb from DC north by 22z. Some N MD areas a couple of hours before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 MA special if only a few degrees colder it would be much better http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 MA special if only a few degrees colder it would be much better http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_700_rh_ht.gif Still, I'll roll the dice. Like what MN said above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 a little more amped at 33 hrs vs. 0z which brings 850 a hair warmer, but I think the back side of the low, the thump part, will be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good run for HGR, Westminster, FDK, JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That little 1010 H is trying....too bad its not 1020. Still the NAM continues to be the best model for snow weenies..Ill take my 1-3" pasting in Balt COunty and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Thumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 My drive back and forth to Fairfax tomorrow night to see Mumford and Sons could be...challenging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Had a feeling this would trend colder. I bet 18Z will be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Had a feeling this would trend colder. I bet 18Z will be even better. This is the time frame where they usually do phin, its not really colder as much as more precip when we cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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