psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yessir, which is why I mentioned the GFS/NAM combo Bob I think you could tell by the tone of my posts that I am not that fond of the Euro this year seems like it used to be better I think the euro's tendancy to hold back energy in the southern stream combined with its bias to over phase storms is wreaking havoc with it in this fast northern branch dominated nina type pattern. Seems its just having trouble, but not surprising that the two major amplification events we have had, the euro did a good job with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Heck no, and don't matter the college is gonna get like 3" anyways so they'll open late Even IAD gets lil snow... .085 snow and .294 PL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Even IAD gets lil snow... .085 snow and .294 PL Better than 18z I'd definitely assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 FWIW, from a site that's done pretty darn well this winter...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Even IAD gets lil snow... .085 snow and .294 PL I don't trust that sleet output. At that hour it's isothermal at 0°C from 875mb to 950mb before warming at the surface to 34. Your probably looking at a RA -> SN at during those hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You've got to wonder if the euro is not going to score on this... yea, valid concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't have the charts in front of me. Is it cold or just dry? South of all the other models... Drier as a result obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro is similar with the track as the gfs but we are in the precip hole it appears. nobody gets more than a quarter inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro is similar with the track as the gfs but we are in the precip hole it appears. nobody gets more than a quarter inch Guess I'll take the track and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Guess I'll take the track and run with it. It's a little south of the gfs but not really. It just never gets the nw side cranking at all. It's weak through the tn valley and here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Spoke to soon....holy crap surface at 9.5c 18z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's a little south of the gfs but not really. It just never gets the nw side cranking at all. It's weak through the tn valley and here.How much credit you giving it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Spoke to soon....holy crap surface at 9.5c 18z Wednesday I see low 40's in most of md and below 40 just n of the m/d line? Edit: scratch that. my eyes are tired. Just add 10 degrees to my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I see low 40's in most of md and below 40 just n of the m/d line? Edit: scratch that. my eyes are tired. Just add 10 degrees to my post. Check PM's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 How much credit you giving it? Enough. We've seen some drier runs of the nam and gfs than the latest ones. Always have to split the difference unless one is a big outlier and this isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HPC is catching on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HPC is catching on I guess they don't care about what the Euro says......but why wouldn't they hug the GFS/NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I guess they don't care about what the Euro says......but why wouldn't they hug the GFS/NAM? They released that at 12:55, so I assume they did it before they saw the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I guess they don't care about what the Euro says......but why wouldn't they hug the GFS/NAM? They released that at 12:55, so I assume they did it before they saw the Euro. On phone, didn't see time but I guess that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 They released that at 12:55, so I assume they did it before they saw the Euro. Guys, check the description on those products. They aren't the final probabilities; they are a 28 or 29 member "auto ensemble" that includes all 21 sref members, 7 of the latest operational runs (in this case the ECMWF is the prior run), and one member which is the HPC WWD's deterministic snowfall forecast that is sent internally to the WFOs for guidance. The reason why HPC doesn't go public with their deterministic snow/ice accum graphics is because the WFOs (and thus NDFD) have final say on accums and we don't want to add confusion or conflict within NWS products. So, the WFOs (and RFCs) can see that deterministic output from HPC via an internal webpage, usually by 0630 and 1830Z so they can have enough time to use those grids as guidance if they choose to. The deterministic accumulations (which is prism or elevation adjusted) serve as a baseline guidance for the field offices, while also serving as one of 28 members of that autoensemble probabilistic forecast graphic you have linked here. Ah, but it is an important lone member in that it serves as the "mode" for those probabilistic calculations. The forecaster-adjusted "final" probabilities are manually edited for the 4, 8, 12 inch 10, 40, 70 percent probabilities. They come out between 8-9 and 20-21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 06Z NAM is very similar to the 00Z run for the DC and Baltimore region. It does shift the heavier precip totals slightly north where DC and Balt get into the +.5 range. The NAM also has a slightly warmer look for the storm at the surface and at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 06Z GFS is noticeably drier then the 00Z run. 850's are somewhat similar and the surface is just a touch warmer. The 500's have taken a step backwards though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At this point, coating to 2" from north of DC to the MD line. DC, coating away from the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At this point, coating to 2" from north of DC to the MD line. DC, coating away from the river. If the models keep coming in drier we won't get the rates needed to cool down the BL for anyone even up towards the PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Apparently we all need to move to OK. 3-5. Some places 6-12. It's like the new Richmond! So Vday has not trended well overnight? I don't have a punter on the team. Anyone know where I can pick one up for cheap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Apparently we all need to move to OK. 3-5. Some places 6-12. It's like the new Richmond! So Vday has not trended well overnight? I don't have a punter on the team. Anyone know where I can pick one up for cheap? The 6z runs have done that every night, I'd wait to see 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 6z runs have done that every night, I'd wait to see 12z I hear ya. I have been all in all winter. Whats one more day of model hugging. One of these days I have to win right? Maybe we trend better today for VDay, but more importantly PDIII... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Temps are the issue. Even out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm still in. Same for pd3. 12z will help determined my next move. Thump is the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 3z SREFs were the coldest I've yet seen. Plumes give an average of just over 2" at BWI and just under 2" at DCA and IAD. 9z should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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