PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So how much can we shave from soundings? 4-5? I think it is OK after 48 hours NW of DC/BWI. Very wet snow, barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Isothermal I'd assume Phin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 FWIW -- 00z UKIE has h5 energy in SW VA at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I actually don't like that too much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think we're overanalyzing the surface a little bit...Yeah 34F is not ideal for accumulation specifically not on the "colder surfaces" but I think the fact the the 'thump' looks to occur overnight can really help here with a window of 3-4 hrs of a pasting at 34F...Its going to be really a wet snow, but I dont see why say BWI and north especially cant get 2 or 3 inches. We have seen OK accumulation before with temps 33F-35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think we're overanalyzing the surface a little bit...Yeah 34F is not ideal for accumulation specifically not on the "colder surfaces" but I think the fact the the 'thump' looks to occur overnight can really help here with a window of 3-4 hrs of a pasting at 34F...Its going to be really a wet snow, but I dont see why say BWI and north especially cant get 2 or 3 inches. We have seen OK accumulation before with temps 33F-35F I agree Chris, the 1/26 event was different but precip wise, it snowed so hard it coulda accumulated at 38. It could be coming down at 1" an hour when it goes over to snow in this case, so it could happen in a similar fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is shaping up to be a decent event for Leesburg west. May end up our second best storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't hate the way it is playing out on the models. Certainly could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is shaping up to be a decent event for Leesburg west. May end up our second best storm of the season.Second callOKV: 4.0" JYO: 3.7" FDK: 4.0" Psuhoffman: 5" BWI: 1.9" DCA: 1.1" IAD: 3.0" MTN: 2.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 man, does this mean we have to stay up for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Second call OKV: 4.0" JYO: 3.7" FDK: 4.0" Psuhoffman: 5" BWI: 1.9" DCA: 1.1" IAD: 3.0" MTN: 2.7" The Golden Eggs: ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is shaping up to be a decent event for Leesburg west. May end up our second best storm of the season.Wow and that would be >3? Some season. I got elevation here in little Switzerland so I may squeeze something out of it. DCA can't catch a break. Let us see if those temps move in right direction tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Golden Eggs: ???? DLK? Haha 2.3", your predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 one issue with the run is the precip field is a little patchy. it's actually close to more promising than it looks. at 48 it's rain in dc but shift it slightly colder and it's snow. at 54 it' would be snow .. still a smidge warm at the sfc, but probably at least a tenth or two all snow? looks better than it has to me... still need things to work out right but it's not a punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 one issue with the run is the precip field is a little patchy. it's actually close to more promising than it looks. at 48 it's rain in dc but shift it slightly colder and it's snow. at 54 it' would be snow .. still a smidge warm at the sfc, but probably at least a tenth or two all snow? looks better than it has to me... still need things to work out right but it's not a punt. Even for dc its close to 2-4" if a touch chillier. Is 2-4 for balt and nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 one issue with the run is the precip field is a little patchy. it's actually close to more promising than it looks. at 48 it's rain in dc but shift it slightly colder and it's snow. at 54 it' would be snow .. still a smidge warm at the sfc, but probably at least a tenth or two all snow? looks better than it has to me... still need things to work out right but it's not a punt. This is usually the range when we see a cooling trend on the models if there is going to be one. Still 48 hours to shave a couple of degrees. The models seem to mostly agree on precip at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It just sucks either way because to me accumulations will be sloppy bwi to dca as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It just sucks either way because to me accumulations will be sloppy bwi to dca as modeled. I think the only answer is to head back to SNE. Have a good trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM at BWI http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM at BWI http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec 2.8 not bad, daves bufkit or text depiction was 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM at BWI http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec DCA is .199 snow and IAD is .245 snow FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 DCA is .199 snow and IAD is .245 snow FWIW like I said earlier, the snow comes after 48 hrs and that's pretty well depicted on those graphs oh well, screw the Euro until morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 UKIE at 48 has a 1000 L in NE NC (N of HSE but S of ORF) and moves ENE... so I would gather a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yoda's ggem rain to a heavy thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow... coolwx says no snow for DCA per 00z GFS... BWI is .179 snow and .365 sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow... coolwx says no snow for DCA per 00z GFS... Well it isn't correct if you ask me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well it isn't correct if you ask me... Enjoy your .365 of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow... coolwx says no snow for DCA per 00z GFS... BWI is .179 snow and .365 sleet Woah a lot of sleet, close to a decent amount of snow. Id bet mtn could be about .4 snow, thats how little distance will make a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Enjoy your .365 of sleet Heck no, and don't matter the college is gonna get like 3" anyways so they'll open late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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