ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yes but i would have 20 rbi's That is without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's raining now...rain never busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 00z jma. Juicy vort in good location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 EURO h5 at 24 looks pretty close to the 00z GFS from my weenie eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Zwyts dosent ridicule jma anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Zwyts dosent ridicule jma anymore He is busy watching the Euro come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Bob Chill can watch this quick video as he watches for the 00z Euro to bow to the GFS http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/50742243#50742243 I find this video misleading. Correct me if I am wrong, but does computing power actually depend on the number of atmospheric observations being made? Technically both models are taking snap-shots of the atmosphere, but maybe the EURO does take more of them within the same time frames. As with Sandy, didn't at least one of the GFS runs show a possible landfall before the EURO was even within range? Ensemble means FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Why I'm up I have no idea. Euro is much further n than 12z but not as nice as the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gfs runs 4 times a day so it probably did show an earlier hit than euro but when the euro locked onto to sandy...3-4 runs in a row. Gfs still had it going to Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 it is certainly an "improvement" Sounds like crap...like yesterday's 0z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I find this video misleading. Correct me if I am wrong, but does computing power actually depend on the number of atmospheric observations being made? Technically both models are taking snap-shots of the atmosphere, but maybe the EURO does take more of them within the same time frames. As with Sandy, didn't at least one of the GFS runs show a possible landfall before the EURO was even within range? Ensemble means FTW the video was a gross way to simplify the use of 4DVar in the ECMWF. Thats what they mean by slicing the atmosphere. That and data assimilation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 00z jma. Juicy vort in good locationImageUploadedByTapatalk1360562193.418915.jpg JMA is rain by the way JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 it does...but it doesnt really do much..get some very light rain/snow here..trace amounts....very flat... Baby steps, if it does not show more improvement by 0Z tomorrow night than I would be more worried. It is nice to have every other global be on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 it does...but it doesnt really do much..get some very light rain/snow here..trace amounts....very flat... Euro is very stubborn. Can't punt till one of tge models totally folds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 JMA is rain by the way JI You know we have not gotten snow in 5,000 days when the 2 senior citizens Mitch and Bob are up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro really shows it's difference @ 500 kinda early. Like 48-54hr. Just not digging like the gfs/nam. I know with 100% certainty that either the gfs/nam or euro is wrong early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You know we have not gotten snow in 5,000 days when the 2 senior citizens Mitch and Bob are up for the Euro. back up you mean I fell asleep after the NAM...honestly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You know we have not gotten snow in 5,000 days when the 2 senior citizens Mitch and Bob are up for the Euro. I have problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 back up you mean I fell asleep after the NAM...honestly lol Well at least if you don't get anymore sleep tonight, you will get the same amount I will get so that should make you feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Decent overall trends today and tonight and as long as all the models average the results they show, there will be clouds at the beginning of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Maybe euro is just resting from its monster performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 im worried now...this is the euro's wheelhouse...if we are going to get snow it should show us getting punched in the gut by now don't have access but is there any baginess in the SW with the euro (ie not ejecting the full S/W?) That would play in to usual biases, though usually not this early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 im worried now...this is the euro's wheelhouse...if we are going to get snow it should show us getting punched in the gut by now So you think it is highly unlikely that its usual bias of holding back energy is unlikely because we are within 72 hours and that usually happens farther out?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 im worried now...this is the euro's wheelhouse...if we are going to get snow it should show us getting punched in the gut by now You can see it @ 500 over tx/ok. Not the same at all. Not sure why such a spread at such short lead. It's hard to doubt the nam inside of 36 + the gfs but euro leaves a doubt sandwich with bacon and cheese on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 im worried now...this is the euro's wheelhouse...if we are going to get snow it should show us getting punched in the gut by now Gfs in wheelhouse too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Return of the vinyl who likes Sat/Sun as do I. Where is cold air for VD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 So you think it is highly unlikely that its usual bias of holding back energy is unlikely because we are within 72 hours and that usually happens farther out?. It's not really like that. Looks close enough to the gfs through like 42 but then the vort halts it's dig and goes the other way @ 48. Then holds the more sheared look through the end. Very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's not really like that. Looks close enough to the gfs through like 42 but then the vort halts it's dig and goes the other way @ 48. Then holds the more sheared look through the end. Very different. Thanks Bob, I appreciate the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 One thing I like..The solution at 0z is nothing like 12z...there is pretty much no way the 12z solution is right....the euro has no continuity...it is lost right now... I agree. It's a complete outlier. If it showed a storm right now with all other models out to sea...you would have your doubts also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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