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Feb 13: The little storm that could (for some)


Ian

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Bob Chill can watch this quick video as he watches for the 00z Euro to bow to the GFS

 

http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/50742243#50742243

I find this video misleading. Correct me if I am wrong, but does computing power actually depend on the number of atmospheric observations being made? Technically both models are taking snap-shots of the atmosphere, but maybe the EURO does take more of them within the same time frames. As with Sandy, didn't at least one of the GFS runs show a possible landfall before the EURO was even within range? Ensemble means FTW

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I find this video misleading. Correct me if I am wrong, but does computing power actually depend on the number of atmospheric observations being made? Technically both models are taking snap-shots of the atmosphere, but maybe the EURO does take more of them within the same time frames. As with Sandy, didn't at least one of the GFS runs show a possible landfall before the EURO was even within range? Ensemble means FTW

 

the video was a gross way to simplify the use of 4DVar in the ECMWF. Thats what they mean by slicing the atmosphere. That and data assimilation.

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im worried now...this is the euro's wheelhouse...if we are going to get snow it should show us getting punched in the gut by now

So you think it is highly unlikely that its usual bias of holding back energy is unlikely because we are within 72 hours and that usually happens farther out?.

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im worried now...this is the euro's wheelhouse...if we are going to get snow it should show us getting punched in the gut by now

You can see it @ 500 over tx/ok. Not the same at all. Not sure why such a spread at such short lead. It's hard to doubt the nam inside of 36 + the gfs but euro leaves a doubt sandwich with bacon and cheese on the table.

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So you think it is highly unlikely that its usual bias of holding back energy is unlikely because we are within 72 hours and that usually happens farther out?.

It's not really like that. Looks close enough to the gfs through like 42 but then the vort halts it's dig and goes the other way @ 48. Then holds the more sheared look through the end. Very different.

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One thing I like..The solution at 0z is nothing like 12z...there is pretty much no way the 12z solution is right....the euro has no continuity...it is lost right now...

I agree. It's a complete outlier. If it showed a storm right now with all other models out to sea...you would have your doubts also

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