Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 blue bullseye moved south this time. It's drier than the last couple. But it did look better with the 500 / 850 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 51 hours would be snow Date: 51 hour Eta valid 3Z THU 14 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 50 SFC 999 57 1.0 0.2 94 0.8 0.7 347 6 274.2 274.8 273.8 284.7 3.88 2 950 461 0.0 -0.1 99 0.1 -0.0 14 16 277.2 277.9 275.7 288.2 4.00 3 900 893 -1.9 -2.2 97 0.3 -2.0 0 14 279.6 280.2 276.5 289.6 3.61 4 850 1346 -3.4 -3.9 96 0.5 -3.6 339 8 282.6 283.2 277.7 292.1 3.37 5 800 1823 -6.0 -6.8 95 0.7 -6.3 306 5 284.7 285.2 278.2 293.0 2.88 6 750 2327 -7.9 -8.7 93 0.9 -8.2 228 11 288.0 288.5 279.4 295.7 2.63 7 700 2861 -10.8 -11.9 91 1.2 -11.1 265 21 290.6 290.9 280.0 297.1 2.19 8 650 3425 -14.8 -16.4 87 1.6 -15.2 287 25 292.2 292.5 280.1 297.2 1.63 9 600 4029 -15.8 -17.4 87 1.6 -16.2 256 19 297.9 298.2 282.5 302.9 1.62 10 550 4682 -19.0 -20.8 86 1.8 -19.4 232 21 301.5 301.7 283.7 305.7 1.32 11 500 5383 -24.8 -27.1 82 2.2 -25.2 251 27 302.8 302.9 283.6 305.5 0.83 12 450 6138 -31.7 -34.7 75 2.9 -32.1 258 30 303.3 303.4 283.4 304.9 0.45 13 400 6960 -36.8 -43.8 48 7.0 -37.3 251 39 307.2 307.2 284.5 307.9 0.20 14 350 7877 -39.1 -58.7 11 19.7 -39.9 243 61 316.0 316.1 287.5 316.2 0.04 15 300 8932 -40.1 -69.9 3 29.8 -41.1 240 90 328.8 328.8 291.4 328.8 0.01 16 250 10164 -44.9 243 98 339.2 17 200 11640 -48.1 244 98 356.6 18 150 13507 -54.3 248 87 376.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 maybe for you, we're right on the cusp at 48hrs with the surface temp Date: 48 hour Eta valid 0Z THU 14 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 42 SFC 998 57 2.9 2.1 94 0.9 2.5 39 9 276.2 277.0 275.8 288.3 4.44 2 950 454 -0.2 -0.2 100 0.0 -0.2 61 19 277.0 277.7 275.6 287.9 3.97 3 900 886 -1.6 -1.8 99 0.2 -1.7 76 17 279.8 280.5 276.7 290.2 3.72 4 850 1339 -3.8 -4.1 98 0.3 -4.0 92 13 282.1 282.7 277.4 291.5 3.30 5 800 1817 -5.0 -5.2 98 0.2 -5.1 138 15 285.8 286.4 279.1 295.1 3.23 6 750 2325 -5.0 -5.1 99 0.1 -5.1 190 32 291.1 291.8 281.9 301.3 3.47 7 700 2865 -7.5 -7.7 99 0.2 -7.6 212 37 294.1 294.7 282.7 303.2 3.06 8 650 3440 -9.0 -9.0 100 0.0 -9.0 213 33 298.8 299.3 284.5 307.8 2.97 9 600 4056 -13.0 -14.6 87 1.7 -13.5 223 39 301.1 301.5 284.4 307.5 2.05 10 550 4714 -16.6 -27.2 39 10.6 -18.7 218 52 304.4 304.5 284.1 306.9 0.75 11 500 5424 -20.9 -40.0 16 19.0 -23.4 221 63 307.5 307.6 284.7 308.4 0.24 12 450 6193 -26.0 -48.4 10 22.4 -28.0 226 76 310.6 310.6 285.7 310.9 0.11 13 400 7036 -31.2 -58.1 5 26.9 -32.7 227 96 314.4 314.4 286.9 314.6 0.04 14 350 7970 -36.8 -66.8 3 30.0 -37.9 230 115 319.1 319.1 288.5 319.2 0.01 15 300 9021 -43.9 -68.7 5 24.7 -44.6 231 123 323.4 323.4 289.8 323.5 0.01 16 250 10226 -49.6 -72.7 5 23.1 -50.0 234 123 332.3 332.3 292.3 332.3 0.01 17 200 11675 -52.3 -71.5 8 19.2 -52.7 239 119 349.9 349.9 296.6 350.0 0.01 18 150 13523 -55.5 -76.6 6 21.1 -55.8 247 112 374.4 374.4 301.4 374.5 0.01 19 100 16078 -59.8 -85.2 2 25.3 -60.2 248 77 412.1 412.1 306.7 412.1 0.00 You can snow at 37 so it could be snow but for dca and points east, it needs to cool more than that to do much and this is about the best run you can get without having a much stronger 500. Wes, what site are you getting that from....Plymouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You can snow at 37 so it could be snow but for dca and points east, it needs to cool more than that to do much and this is about the best run you can get without having a much stronger 500. Except in Feb '87.. it was snowing at 42 degrees before we got 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 blue bullseye moved south this time. It's drier than the last couple. But it did look better with the 500 / 850 stuff. namqpf.JPG nam.. it'll probably still purple us one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah, DCA is in a tough spot I'm a little better at 176', but that ain't saying much gunna' need 500' for this one Good thing I'm not at dca and a bit higher. Higher than you actually. But it's not gonna help. Still rain up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good thing I'm not at dca and a bit higher. Higher than you actually. But it's not gonna help. Still rain up there. Wednesday HH on Mount Pleasant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 it's running warm.. chop 6C. Well at 51 hr it would be snow for the last .10 or so. Maybe someone gets grass a little white, and guys with elevation get snow unless the 18Z gfs is right. Toasty days with no high pressure don't usually end up as wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 nam.. it'll probably still purple us one run. Yea, I just posted for reference for comparison to the last couple. Better vort / 850 / surface low. Seems like it wants to get better organized on the back side. That's our only chance so I guess I don't have to worry about losing my house and retirement yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wes, what site are you getting that from....Plymouth? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wednesday HH on Mount Pleasant? I'm at our warehouse all this week. But what time were you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wednesday HH on Mount Pleasant? Reno Hill.. 409 feet. BYOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mitch, extrapolate the NAM right now to PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mitch, extrapolate the NAM right now to PD3. I heard the parallel nam BURIES us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well at 51 hr it would be snow for the last .10 or so. Maybe someone gets grass a little white, and guys with elevation get snow unless the 18Z gfs is right. Toasty days with no high pressure don't usually end up as wins. what are the odds it creates its own cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Except in Feb '87.. it was snowing at 42 degrees before we got 12" that was a wicked event. big league snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Here is to hoping the GFS follows suit tonight... a lil cooler and maybe we sneak a miracle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah, DCA is in a tough spot I'm a little better at 176', but that ain't saying much gunna' need 500' for this one I am at 483' so I sure as hell hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Damn such a nice track! Can't believe this is rain, quite unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wes, what site are you getting that from....Plymouth? Yeah Wes where do you get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am at 495' so I sure as hell hope you are right. Make sure you don't fall off your roof obs whoring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Make sure you don't fall off your roof obs whoring More like slide from all the rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This run is definitely 1-2" for n of bwi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm at our warehouse all this week. But what time were you thinking? Anytime after 5.. Reno Hill might be a good idea.. Maybe Leesburg can get us free granola from the whole foods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Seems like it is snow across the area by 48HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So 3-6 hours of snow at IAD at around 48-54 hours? Maybe we'll squeeze out 2" wet at the back end of the rain. Aw, who am I kidding. We're lucky to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah, DCA is in a tough spot I'm a little better at 176', but that ain't saying much gunna' need 500' for this one How's 900 sound? Not being cute here, just curious about any opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 we need more qpf. that was a dry run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think this might be OK for DCA to BWI and NW. At some point between 42 and 48 we flip to snow and what falls afterwards is money. Certainly not a doomsday scenario and the best look in a while, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Check that, like 2-4" bwi n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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