Feb 13: The little storm that could (for some)

[PhineasC]

45hrs looks pretty darn good (although I refuse to check the surface!)

Roasting.

[Bob Chill]

surface freezing line is definitely closer than 18z @ 42. Now it's only a 5 hour drive away instead of 6+. 

[PhineasC]

18Z sounding for DCA...over 6C at the surface.

 

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 18Z WED 13 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1004    57   6.4  -0.1  63  6.5   3.5  68   6 279.2 279.9 276.5 289.7  3.78  1 1000    86   6.0   0.2  66  5.8   3.4  75   5 279.1 279.8 276.6 289.9  3.87  2  950   503   2.6  -2.4  69  5.0   0.5 128   9 279.9 280.4 276.3 289.3  3.37  3  900   937  -0.1  -5.8  65  5.7  -2.2 159  11 281.4 281.9 276.3 289.2  2.75  4  850  1393  -3.7  -4.9  91  1.2  -4.1 187  11 282.3 282.9 277.3 291.2  3.13  5  800  1870  -4.9  -5.6  95  0.7  -5.2 199   9 285.9 286.5 279.1 295.0  3.15  6  750  2376  -7.0  -7.3  98  0.3  -7.1 188  13 289.0 289.5 280.3 297.6  2.94  7  700  2917  -5.2  -5.6  97  0.4  -5.4 214  37 296.7 297.4 284.4 307.5  3.60  8  650  3497  -5.3  -5.5  98  0.2  -5.4 230  58 303.0 303.7 287.1 314.9  3.89  9  600  4122  -8.9  -9.5  96  0.5  -9.1 237  66 305.8 306.4 287.2 315.5  3.11 10  550  4790 -13.4 -18.2  67  4.8 -14.8 238  66 308.2 308.5 286.6 313.6  1.66 11  500  5508 -18.4 -31.8  30 13.4 -20.8 245  68 310.6 310.7 286.2 312.4  0.53 12  450  6285 -24.6 -36.4  33 11.7 -26.2 249  68 312.3 312.3 286.6 313.6  0.38 13  400  7128 -32.3 -40.7  43  8.4 -33.1 247  68 313.1 313.1 286.8 314.1  0.27 14  350  8054 -40.0 -49.7  35  9.6 -40.6 246  72 314.7 314.8 287.1 315.2  0.12 15  300  9093 -44.8 -66.8   7 22.1 -45.3 247 103 322.3 322.3 289.5 322.3  0.02 16  250 10295 -51.5 -71.6   7 20.1 -51.8 248 114 329.4 329.4 291.6 329.5  0.01 17  200 11728 -54.1 -70.7  11 16.6 -54.4 251 125 347.1 347.1 296.0 347.2  0.01 18  150 13571 -55.7 -76.9   5 21.2 -56.0 252 119 374.1 374.1 301.3 374.2  0.01 19  100 16105 -62.7 -85.2   3 22.5 -62.9 248  93 406.6 406.6 306.1 406.6  0.00

Yo, 00Z is running. Toss 18Z.

[Huffwx]

Cooler aloft down my way, but 40+ at the surface. If it's raining, it won't be low 40's long.

[AvantHiatus]

surface freezing line is definitely closer than 18z @ 42. Now it's only a 5 hour drive away instead of 6+. 

You need heavier precip to cool the surface. No need to throw out this event just because the surface is warm.

 

Albeit, if your standards are high you may be in for a letdown.

[usedtobe]

Yo, 00Z is running. Toss 18Z.

 

Sorry that was the 00Z run but for 18Z. 

[Bob Chill]

much better lp placement and better track. If it's gonna be a close call I guess it's good to make it as close as possible and still get rain. 

[mitchnick]

the more I look at this run, the more I'm convinced it may be the best run of the NAM

[yoda]

And to add insult... the h5 vort pass looks great and the 850s look better at 48

[usedtobe]

21Z temp at surface is still roasting.

 

Date: 45 hour Eta valid 21Z WED 13 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000    53                                                                 SFC 1000    57   5.4   2.6  82  2.8   4.1  69   7 278.6 279.4 277.3 291.2  4.62  2  950   469   1.1   0.6  96  0.5   0.9  93  14 278.3 279.0 276.6 289.8  4.20  3  900   902  -1.4  -1.5  99  0.2  -1.4 108  16 280.1 280.7 277.0 290.6  3.79  4  850  1355  -3.4  -3.7  97  0.4  -3.5 132  13 282.6 283.2 277.8 292.3  3.42  5  800  1834  -4.4  -4.8  98  0.3  -4.6 155  19 286.4 287.0 279.6 296.1  3.35  6  750  2342  -4.2  -4.4  99  0.2  -4.3 187  38 292.0 292.6 282.5 302.8  3.67  7  700  2888  -3.4  -3.4 100  0.0  -3.4 213  53 298.7 299.5 285.8 311.4  4.23  8  650  3473  -5.7  -5.8  99  0.1  -5.8 222  56 302.5 303.2 286.8 314.1  3.81  9  600  4095  -9.7 -12.9  77  3.3 -10.8 227  54 304.9 305.4 286.1 312.3  2.35 10  550  4761 -14.2 -26.4  35 12.2 -16.9 225  60 307.2 307.4 285.3 309.9  0.81 11  500  5477 -18.9 -38.8  15 19.9 -21.7 232  63 310.0 310.0 285.7 310.9  0.27 12  450  6251 -25.5 -41.3  21 15.8 -27.3 237  64 311.2 311.2 286.0 312.0  0.23 13  400  7091 -32.6 -43.7  32 11.0 -33.6 240  80 312.6 312.6 286.5 313.3  0.20 14  350  8021 -37.5 -60.8   7 23.2 -38.5 239 106 318.1 318.1 288.2 318.2  0.03 15  300  9070 -44.6 -68.9   5 24.3 -45.2 239 115 322.5 322.5 289.5 322.5  0.01 16  250 10268 -51.3                      241 125 329.8                         17  200 11705 -53.7                      244 128 347.7                         18  150 13546 -55.8                      251 119 373.9                         19  100 16092 -61.5                      243  88 408.8     

 

Wet bulb is also roasting so the cool off won't be as quick as it might otherwise seem. 

[stormtracker]

the more I look at this run, the more I'm convinced it may be the best run of the NAM

 

It is...but it's still warm at the surface.   Not sure how we're convincing ourselves this will be a snow event.

[Ji]

its mostly snow once the precip gets moderate.

[yoda]

51-54 look nice.... please say that is snow... perfect h5 track

[mitchnick]

It is...but it's still warm at the surface.   Not sure how we're convincing ourselves this will be a snow event.

yeah, DCA is in a tough spot

I'm a little better at 176', but that ain't saying much

gunna' need 500' for this one

[Ji]

850 at -3. no chance its not a snowstorm. its Feb 13

[87storms]

maybe we can still get a couple inches after the changeover...that would be a win.

[PhineasC]

What a shame if this ends up being rain.

[NOVAForecaster]

[Fozz]

Been a little while since we've had a nice elevation event

[Ji]

where is the blue qpf

[usedtobe]

850 at -3. no chance its not a snowstorm. its Feb 13

 

maybe for you, we're right on the cusp at 48hrs with the surface temp

 

Date: 48 hour Eta valid 0Z THU 14 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000    42                                                                 SFC  998    57   2.9   2.1  94  0.9   2.5  39   9 276.2 277.0 275.8 288.3  4.44  2  950   454  -0.2  -0.2 100  0.0  -0.2  61  19 277.0 277.7 275.6 287.9  3.97  3  900   886  -1.6  -1.8  99  0.2  -1.7  76  17 279.8 280.5 276.7 290.2  3.72  4  850  1339  -3.8  -4.1  98  0.3  -4.0  92  13 282.1 282.7 277.4 291.5  3.30  5  800  1817  -5.0  -5.2  98  0.2  -5.1 138  15 285.8 286.4 279.1 295.1  3.23  6  750  2325  -5.0  -5.1  99  0.1  -5.1 190  32 291.1 291.8 281.9 301.3  3.47  7  700  2865  -7.5  -7.7  99  0.2  -7.6 212  37 294.1 294.7 282.7 303.2  3.06  8  650  3440  -9.0  -9.0 100  0.0  -9.0 213  33 298.8 299.3 284.5 307.8  2.97  9  600  4056 -13.0 -14.6  87  1.7 -13.5 223  39 301.1 301.5 284.4 307.5  2.05 10  550  4714 -16.6 -27.2  39 10.6 -18.7 218  52 304.4 304.5 284.1 306.9  0.75 11  500  5424 -20.9 -40.0  16 19.0 -23.4 221  63 307.5 307.6 284.7 308.4  0.24 12  450  6193 -26.0 -48.4  10 22.4 -28.0 226  76 310.6 310.6 285.7 310.9  0.11 13  400  7036 -31.2 -58.1   5 26.9 -32.7 227  96 314.4 314.4 286.9 314.6  0.04 14  350  7970 -36.8 -66.8   3 30.0 -37.9 230 115 319.1 319.1 288.5 319.2  0.01 15  300  9021 -43.9 -68.7   5 24.7 -44.6 231 123 323.4 323.4 289.8 323.5  0.01 16  250 10226 -49.6 -72.7   5 23.1 -50.0 234 123 332.3 332.3 292.3 332.3  0.01 17  200 11675 -52.3 -71.5   8 19.2 -52.7 239 119 349.9 349.9 296.6 350.0  0.01 18  150 13523 -55.5 -76.6   6 21.1 -55.8 247 112 374.4 374.4 301.4 374.5  0.01 19  100 16078 -59.8 -85.2   2 25.3 -60.2 248  77 412.1 412.1 306.7 412.1  0.00

 

You can snow at 37 so it could be snow but for dca and points east,  it needs to cool more than that to do much and this is about the best run you can get without having a much stronger 500. 

[weathervswife]

Everything about this says accumulating snow on the grass and such at about 34 degrees overnight. 

[yoda]

Wes, if thats a shaky snow sounding at DCA... anything after would be snow yes?  And NAM does show some QPF after through 54... so that would be snow?

[Ian]

18Z sounding for DCA...over 6C at the surface.

 

Date: 42 hour Eta valid 18Z WED 13 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1004    57   6.4  -0.1  63  6.5   3.5  68   6 279.2 279.9 276.5 289.7  3.78  1 1000    86   6.0   0.2  66  5.8   3.4  75   5 279.1 279.8 276.6 289.9  3.87  2  950   503   2.6  -2.4  69  5.0   0.5 128   9 279.9 280.4 276.3 289.3  3.37  3  900   937  -0.1  -5.8  65  5.7  -2.2 159  11 281.4 281.9 276.3 289.2  2.75  4  850  1393  -3.7  -4.9  91  1.2  -4.1 187  11 282.3 282.9 277.3 291.2  3.13  5  800  1870  -4.9  -5.6  95  0.7  -5.2 199   9 285.9 286.5 279.1 295.0  3.15  6  750  2376  -7.0  -7.3  98  0.3  -7.1 188  13 289.0 289.5 280.3 297.6  2.94  7  700  2917  -5.2  -5.6  97  0.4  -5.4 214  37 296.7 297.4 284.4 307.5  3.60  8  650  3497  -5.3  -5.5  98  0.2  -5.4 230  58 303.0 303.7 287.1 314.9  3.89  9  600  4122  -8.9  -9.5  96  0.5  -9.1 237  66 305.8 306.4 287.2 315.5  3.11 10  550  4790 -13.4 -18.2  67  4.8 -14.8 238  66 308.2 308.5 286.6 313.6  1.66 11  500  5508 -18.4 -31.8  30 13.4 -20.8 245  68 310.6 310.7 286.2 312.4  0.53 12  450  6285 -24.6 -36.4  33 11.7 -26.2 249  68 312.3 312.3 286.6 313.6  0.38 13  400  7128 -32.3 -40.7  43  8.4 -33.1 247  68 313.1 313.1 286.8 314.1  0.27 14  350  8054 -40.0 -49.7  35  9.6 -40.6 246  72 314.7 314.8 287.1 315.2  0.12 15  300  9093 -44.8 -66.8   7 22.1 -45.3 247 103 322.3 322.3 289.5 322.3  0.02 16  250 10295 -51.5 -71.6   7 20.1 -51.8 248 114 329.4 329.4 291.6 329.5  0.01 17  200 11728 -54.1 -70.7  11 16.6 -54.4 251 125 347.1 347.1 296.0 347.2  0.01 18  150 13571 -55.7 -76.9   5 21.2 -56.0 252 119 374.1 374.1 301.3 374.2  0.01 19  100 16105 -62.7 -85.2   3 22.5 -62.9 248  93 406.6 406.6 306.1 406.6  0.00

 

it's running warm.. chop 6C.

[Bob Chill]

blue bullseye moved south this time. It's drier than the last couple. But it did look better with the 500 / 850 stuff. 

 

[usedtobe]

51 hours would be snow

 

Date: 51 hour Eta valid 3Z THU 14 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000    50                                                                 SFC  999    57   1.0   0.2  94  0.8   0.7 347   6 274.2 274.8 273.8 284.7  3.88  2  950   461   0.0  -0.1  99  0.1  -0.0  14  16 277.2 277.9 275.7 288.2  4.00  3  900   893  -1.9  -2.2  97  0.3  -2.0   0  14 279.6 280.2 276.5 289.6  3.61  4  850  1346  -3.4  -3.9  96  0.5  -3.6 339   8 282.6 283.2 277.7 292.1  3.37  5  800  1823  -6.0  -6.8  95  0.7  -6.3 306   5 284.7 285.2 278.2 293.0  2.88  6  750  2327  -7.9  -8.7  93  0.9  -8.2 228  11 288.0 288.5 279.4 295.7  2.63  7  700  2861 -10.8 -11.9  91  1.2 -11.1 265  21 290.6 290.9 280.0 297.1  2.19  8  650  3425 -14.8 -16.4  87  1.6 -15.2 287  25 292.2 292.5 280.1 297.2  1.63  9  600  4029 -15.8 -17.4  87  1.6 -16.2 256  19 297.9 298.2 282.5 302.9  1.62 10  550  4682 -19.0 -20.8  86  1.8 -19.4 232  21 301.5 301.7 283.7 305.7  1.32 11  500  5383 -24.8 -27.1  82  2.2 -25.2 251  27 302.8 302.9 283.6 305.5  0.83 12  450  6138 -31.7 -34.7  75  2.9 -32.1 258  30 303.3 303.4 283.4 304.9  0.45 13  400  6960 -36.8 -43.8  48  7.0 -37.3 251  39 307.2 307.2 284.5 307.9  0.20 14  350  7877 -39.1 -58.7  11 19.7 -39.9 243  61 316.0 316.1 287.5 316.2  0.04 15  300  8932 -40.1 -69.9   3 29.8 -41.1 240  90 328.8 328.8 291.4 328.8  0.01 16  250 10164 -44.9                      243  98 339.2                         17  200 11640 -48.1                      244  98 356.6                         18  150 13507 -54.3                      248  87 376.6                    

[mitchnick]

maybe for you, we're right on the cusp at 48hrs with the surface temp

 

Date: 48 hour Eta valid 0Z THU 14 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000    42                                                                 SFC  998    57   2.9   2.1  94  0.9   2.5  39   9 276.2 277.0 275.8 288.3  4.44  2  950   454  -0.2  -0.2 100  0.0  -0.2  61  19 277.0 277.7 275.6 287.9  3.97  3  900   886  -1.6  -1.8  99  0.2  -1.7  76  17 279.8 280.5 276.7 290.2  3.72  4  850  1339  -3.8  -4.1  98  0.3  -4.0  92  13 282.1 282.7 277.4 291.5  3.30  5  800  1817  -5.0  -5.2  98  0.2  -5.1 138  15 285.8 286.4 279.1 295.1  3.23  6  750  2325  -5.0  -5.1  99  0.1  -5.1 190  32 291.1 291.8 281.9 301.3  3.47  7  700  2865  -7.5  -7.7  99  0.2  -7.6 212  37 294.1 294.7 282.7 303.2  3.06  8  650  3440  -9.0  -9.0 100  0.0  -9.0 213  33 298.8 299.3 284.5 307.8  2.97  9  600  4056 -13.0 -14.6  87  1.7 -13.5 223  39 301.1 301.5 284.4 307.5  2.05 10  550  4714 -16.6 -27.2  39 10.6 -18.7 218  52 304.4 304.5 284.1 306.9  0.75 11  500  5424 -20.9 -40.0  16 19.0 -23.4 221  63 307.5 307.6 284.7 308.4  0.24 12  450  6193 -26.0 -48.4  10 22.4 -28.0 226  76 310.6 310.6 285.7 310.9  0.11 13  400  7036 -31.2 -58.1   5 26.9 -32.7 227  96 314.4 314.4 286.9 314.6  0.04 14  350  7970 -36.8 -66.8   3 30.0 -37.9 230 115 319.1 319.1 288.5 319.2  0.01 15  300  9021 -43.9 -68.7   5 24.7 -44.6 231 123 323.4 323.4 289.8 323.5  0.01 16  250 10226 -49.6 -72.7   5 23.1 -50.0 234 123 332.3 332.3 292.3 332.3  0.01 17  200 11675 -52.3 -71.5   8 19.2 -52.7 239 119 349.9 349.9 296.6 350.0  0.01 18  150 13523 -55.5 -76.6   6 21.1 -55.8 247 112 374.4 374.4 301.4 374.5  0.01 19  100 16078 -59.8 -85.2   2 25.3 -60.2 248  77 412.1 412.1 306.7 412.1  0.00

 

You can snow at 37 so it could be snow but for dca and points east,  it needs to cool more than that to do much and this is about the best run you can get without having a much stronger 500. 

 

Wes, what site are you getting that from....Plymouth?

[Yeoman]

You can snow at 37 so it could be snow but for dca and points east,  it needs to cool more than that to do much and this is about the best run you can get without having a much stronger 500. 

Except in Feb '87.. it was snowing at 42 degrees before we got 12"

[Ian]

blue bullseye moved south this time. It's drier than the last couple. But it did look better with the 500 / 850 stuff. 

 

namqpf.JPG

 

nam.. it'll probably still purple us one run.

[stormtracker]

yeah, DCA is in a tough spot

I'm a little better at 176', but that ain't saying much

gunna' need 500' for this one

 

Good thing I'm not at dca and a bit higher.   Higher than you actually.   But it's not gonna help.  Still rain up there.