Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Everyone should brace themselves for this to be a painful storm. This seems like the type where DC gets an inch, Baltimore gets 2-3, and some dude in north central MD gets 6-8. And then he mentions it fifty times in the obs thread. psu and parrs ridge area like mt airy / westminster by far has the best shot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 psu and parrs ridge area like mt airy / westminster by far has the best shot here. Sparky will be posting about his 6" and Matt will lose his mind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 if you really think about it, the euro got owned by the nam with this storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 new SREF's fwiw look a little cooler at 850 with .5" qpf just getting into the area didn't bother to compare surface with prior run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 if you really think about it, the euro got owned by the nam with this storm too. yessir, which is why I mentioned the GFS/NAM combo Bob I think you could tell by the tone of my posts that I am not that fond of the Euro this year seems like it used to be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think a few miles could mean something. Baltimore really could get 2 while DC gets 0. I like that the column is cool enough below 900, and if we snowed hard enough, we could make it down as some huge wet flakes that cover everything. It definitely could end up being a neighboorhood to neighborhood type of thing. Even areas that are mostly rain, if it switches over for at least a couple hours they will accumulate easily. Most models are now seemingly increasing qpf, so there could be some very good rates in the order of an inch an hour plus for a short time, so like you said everything would cover up quickly even with surface temps around 34. Alot of precip in a relatively short period would support good rates. I know it's said all the time but in such a marginal event any elevation is key even if it's just a couple hundred feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yessir, which is why I mentioned the GFS/NAM combo Bob I think you could tell by the tone of my posts that I am not that fond of the Euro this year seems like it used to be better After watching nothing short of a bazillion runs over the years, each global and sr model is quite useful if you know what to look for. Euro is gonna always be the go to with the big coastals and miller b's. That's undeniable. And it's also really easy to remember. But the gfs does quite well with weaker, faster moving, and ns systems. Not every time of course. Definitely this year though. I doubted the euro much more than most with this system. I'm glad I'm right because it tells me I've learned something a little complicated while punishing myself with this dreadful hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Everyone should brace themselves for this to be a painful storm. This seems like the type where DC gets an inch, Baltimore gets 2-3, and some dude in north central MD gets 6-8. And then he mentions it fifty times in the obs thread.It seemed like these sharp gradient storms were more common in the 80s and 90s. I recall an instance living in Baltimore City where we had all rain and Hereford zone had double digit accumulations with schools closed. That was painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 After watching nothing short of a bazillion runs over the years, each global and sr model is quite useful if you know what to look for. Euro is gonna always be the go to with the big coastals and miller b's. That's undeniable. And it's also really easy to remember. But the gfs does quite well with weaker, faster moving, and ns systems. Not every time of course. Definitely this year though. I doubted the euro much more than most with this system. I'm glad I'm right because it tells me I've learned something a little complicated while punishing myself with this dreadful hobby. Storm is still like 48 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Storm is still like 48 hours away. lol- if the euro shows a nice hit then I'm hugging it like dt. You know what I'm saying though. Sniffing it out @ longer leads. GFS seems to have killed it until it quietly shears and drifts into the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 looks maybe a tad south of 18z so far...thru 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0Z NAM a little more progressive than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This might be coming back SE some... you can see it on h5 with the southern energy a bit less amped and the northern stream stuff is further south (see the 540 line for example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 looks maybe a tad south of 18z so far...thru 30 0Z NAM a little more progressive than 18z OK, here come the whines over less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 how about the cookie sized 850 zero spot over winston salem. This is a fair example as to why the nam can't be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 how about the cookie sized 850 zero spot over winston salem. This is a fair example as to why the nam can't be trusted. yea i don't know what that is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 OK, here come the whines over less precip. it goes w/o saying that warmer is wetter and cooler is going to be drier in these kinds of events but we need a thump of heavy precip, such a conundrum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 how about the cookie sized 850 zero spot over winston salem. This is a fair example as to why the nam can't be trusted. I think that's common-- marginal dry air and precip enters. Doesn't mean it's snowing on the ground, but Boon 70 miles west might be cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It seemed like these sharp gradient storms were more common in the 80s and 90s. I recall an instance living in Baltimore City where we had all rain and Hereford zone had double digit accumulations with schools closed. That was painful. It did seem to be more common. I also can remember many instances when I lived in Reisterstown where Westminster would get 4 plus and we got zilch and we are talking less than ten miles away. They were the hardest to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 actually, comparing this run to 18z 850 maps, this run is warmer even though the vort is south we are destined to loose this game fans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 actually, comparing this run to 18z 850 maps, this run is warmer even though the vort is south we are destined to loose this game fans Warmer? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 looks colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 actually, comparing this run to 18z 850 maps, this run is warmer even though the vort is south we are destined to loose this game fans Doesn't seem any warmer than 18Z at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I though it looked colder. We're dissecting a molecule though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I like where I sit with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Warmer? Really? it was at 36 hrs compared to 18z but the 0z 42 hr 850 map does not look so bad but I haven't compared it to 18z talk about waxing and waning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 i'm in the "it looks better to me" camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 actually, comparing this run to 18z 850 maps, this run is warmer even though the vort is south we are destined to loose this game fans Patienece my young padawan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 45hrs looks pretty darn good (although I refuse to check the surface!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18Z sounding for DCA...over 6C at the surface. Date: 42 hour Eta valid 18Z WED 13 FEB 13Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1004 57 6.4 -0.1 63 6.5 3.5 68 6 279.2 279.9 276.5 289.7 3.78 1 1000 86 6.0 0.2 66 5.8 3.4 75 5 279.1 279.8 276.6 289.9 3.87 2 950 503 2.6 -2.4 69 5.0 0.5 128 9 279.9 280.4 276.3 289.3 3.37 3 900 937 -0.1 -5.8 65 5.7 -2.2 159 11 281.4 281.9 276.3 289.2 2.75 4 850 1393 -3.7 -4.9 91 1.2 -4.1 187 11 282.3 282.9 277.3 291.2 3.13 5 800 1870 -4.9 -5.6 95 0.7 -5.2 199 9 285.9 286.5 279.1 295.0 3.15 6 750 2376 -7.0 -7.3 98 0.3 -7.1 188 13 289.0 289.5 280.3 297.6 2.94 7 700 2917 -5.2 -5.6 97 0.4 -5.4 214 37 296.7 297.4 284.4 307.5 3.60 8 650 3497 -5.3 -5.5 98 0.2 -5.4 230 58 303.0 303.7 287.1 314.9 3.89 9 600 4122 -8.9 -9.5 96 0.5 -9.1 237 66 305.8 306.4 287.2 315.5 3.11 10 550 4790 -13.4 -18.2 67 4.8 -14.8 238 66 308.2 308.5 286.6 313.6 1.66 11 500 5508 -18.4 -31.8 30 13.4 -20.8 245 68 310.6 310.7 286.2 312.4 0.53 12 450 6285 -24.6 -36.4 33 11.7 -26.2 249 68 312.3 312.3 286.6 313.6 0.38 13 400 7128 -32.3 -40.7 43 8.4 -33.1 247 68 313.1 313.1 286.8 314.1 0.27 14 350 8054 -40.0 -49.7 35 9.6 -40.6 246 72 314.7 314.8 287.1 315.2 0.12 15 300 9093 -44.8 -66.8 7 22.1 -45.3 247 103 322.3 322.3 289.5 322.3 0.02 16 250 10295 -51.5 -71.6 7 20.1 -51.8 248 114 329.4 329.4 291.6 329.5 0.01 17 200 11728 -54.1 -70.7 11 16.6 -54.4 251 125 347.1 347.1 296.0 347.2 0.01 18 150 13571 -55.7 -76.9 5 21.2 -56.0 252 119 374.1 374.1 301.3 374.2 0.01 19 100 16105 -62.7 -85.2 3 22.5 -62.9 248 93 406.6 406.6 306.1 406.6 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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