psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think where you live has a lot to do with expectations for this. Remember this forum covers places in wv and md north of Baltimore that have a very different climo for these type systems. I think if your se of the fall line things are looking kinda bleak ya. There is still a shot for the third of this forum that lives nw of dc and Balt. I really want this to get our whole region but its not likely and I feel bad for those that get left out but we shouldn't pretend it's a punt for the whole area just because the bottom half might get left out. That said maybe we get a surprise and this has a euro track with nam intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 That said maybe we get a surprise and this has a euro track with nam intensity. Snow weenie ensemble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think where you live has a lot to do with expectations for this. Remember this forum covers places in wv and md north of Baltimore that have a very different climo for these type systems. I think if your se of the fall line things are looking kinda bleak ya. There is still a shot for the third of this forum that lives nw of dc and Balt. I really want this to get our whole region but its not likely and I feel bad for those that get left out but we shouldn't pretend it's a punt for the whole area just because the bottom half might get left out. That said maybe we get a surprise and this has a euro track with nam intensity. I'm hoping those people to the SE have been paying attention because when we've actually had a storm this year, the rain/snow line has been consistent. Will be another rain snoozer in Annapolis I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Timing isn't helping either. The last 24 hours of runs sped this up about 6 hours after slowing it for a while. We need it to slow by about 6. That might help a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Timing isn't helping either. The last 24 hours of runs sped this up about 6 hours after slowing it for a while. We need it to slow by about 6. That might help a little. Sometimes too much is made of that. Without heavy precip and dynamic cooling this has no shot regardless of timing. If we do get a good track and dynamics then the column will saturate and cool to the wetbulb. Timing will have minimal impact on this except perhaps allow better stickage on asphalt surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Stupid raleigh clowns have 3-4" for baltimore on gfs. Reality is about 1" maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 WHAG Seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 WHAG Seems reasonable 166780_492633900802707_1953459936_n.jpg So close but so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Doug K likes the chance for snow. Of course Doug also said that Sandy would have no effect on the MA about a week prior. Still he seems pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So close but so far.... I live under the black line. Deform band for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Okay, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'd take it. Starting to worry about getting to my 2" call for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Okay, that's pretty old now.. but KOCIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Has me in the 3" area, highly unlikely. Plus he is going much more than the Euro which is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Doug K likes the chance for snow. Of course Doug also said that Sandy would have no effect on the MA about a week prior. Still he seems pretty good. It's hard not to like it with a pretty standard setup in mid Feb. That's the part that bugs me the most. But it's not hard to understand what's stacked against too. I'm all in so I'm either going down in flames (likely) or a weenie ledgend. Well see I guess. There more than a zero % chance at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's hard not to like it with a pretty standard setup in mid Feb. That's the part that bugs me the most. But it's not hard to understand what's stacked against too. I'm all in so I'm either going down in flames (likely) or a weenie ledgend. Well see I guess. There more than a zero % chance at least. Kinda think the American models are too far north right now.. The Euro was slow to catch on but it's increasingly unlikely it's going to be that far off in this range. Of course it doesn't help us much but it might still be a better track if you are looking for a surprise. At same time.. not much reason to keep it from drifting north a bit except that vorts have liked to get sheared out a bit this winter. The kicker should try to keep it from going much more north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is posting your own forecast map verboten? I am actually making one for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 The NAM and GFS were both running warm into the last storm too. #weeniemode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Kinda think the American models are too far north right now.. The Euro was slow to catch on but it's increasingly unlikely it's going to be that far off in this range. Of course it doesn't help us much but it might still be a better track if you are looking for a surprise. At same time.. not much reason to keep it from drifting north a bit except that vorts have liked to get sheared out a bit this winter. The kicker should try to keep it from going much more north though. Euro track with nam amp would be nice. Asking for too much probably Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is posting your own forecast map verboten? I am actually making one for this system. Don't think anyone minds, just get ready for some chuckles and comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro track with nam amp would be nice. Asking for too much probably Ian. I'd like to punt but I love vorts that might take a great track too much. I mean... my best case might be a mix or light accum should we manage to thump ourselves over. Seems even getting a thump might not work enough given the antecedent air mass. Though.. talking a few degrees I guess anything can happen. I'll start comparing MOS to actual to get some nowcasting trends going. It's WV loop time. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The NAM and GFS were both running warm into the last storm too. #weeniemode We'll soon see. Try not to use the term "torchy" in your upcoming 00z analysis. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'd like to punt but I love vorts that might take a great track too much. I mean... my best case might be a mix or light accum should we manage to thump ourselves over. Seems even getting a thump might not work enough given the antecedent air mass. Though.. taking a few degrees I guess anything can happen. I'll start comparing MOS to actual to get some nowcasting trends going. It's WV loop time. :-/ I think a few miles could mean something. Baltimore really could get 2 while DC gets 0. I like that the column is cool enough below 900, and if we snowed hard enough, we could make it down as some huge wet flakes that cover everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I mostly agree Ian but can't really honk until we're close in. Like rap close. I was very encouraged by the euro irt to precip. Very similar just not so dang close overhead with the vort and 850 from what i could tell. We'll be doing the rap thermal and backyard temp/dp exercises for better or for worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Everyone should brace themselves for this to be a painful storm. This seems like the type where DC gets an inch, Baltimore gets 2-3, and some dude in north central MD gets 6-8. And then he mentions it fifty times in the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Everyone should brace themselves for this to be a painful storm. This seems like the type where DC gets an inch, Baltimore gets 2-3, and some dude in north central MD gets 6-8. And then he mentions it fifty times in the obs thread. Ill take 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Everyone should brace themselves for this to be a painful storm. This seems like the type where DC gets an inch, Baltimore gets 2-3, and some dude in north central MD gets 6-8. And then he mentions it fifty times in the obs thread. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The NAM and GFS were both running warm into the last storm too. #weeniemode When have we had a storm this winter? I missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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