Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I guess what we need to know (anyone knowledgeable chime in), is there any hope for the surface? Would a track a little further south get us some snow? Not really. If we were going to get a magical little weak hp in upstate ny or somewhere it would already be showing. Best case is hope you get under the best rates and your temp isn't above 35-36 before they hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Sold. 1-2 inches for everyone in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Has the weather channel named this yet? That will tell if she means business. This is a more reliable method of forecasting than using the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 1"+ Probabilities: 00z Wed-00z Thurs 00z Thurs - 00z Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Just about time for the fork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 While we wait, can someone explain why it takes the NAM so long to run? Because it is run at 12km spatial resolution with a nearly hemispheric domain...and includes multiple higher resolution nests (including the 4km CONUS nest, 6 km Alaska nest, 3 km Puerto Rico and Guam nests, and a single relocatable 1.33 km (CONUS) nest) all simultaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The rain got warmer and wetter at the same time. dca-bwi @ .75. Oh the agony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The rain got warmer and wetter at the same time. dca-bwi @ .75. Oh the agony. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you just can't make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS BUFKIT not looking all that good for dendrite growth ... assuming surface is cold enough for snow IAD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you just can't make this stuff up 18zgfsqpf.JPG I'm not too worried...give me the qpf dyamnics and central loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 But on the flip side....the euro track and the gfs strength = snow for someone other than psu and pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 LOL KJYO: 18z NAM KDCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 torchytorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Just checking in for a sanity check. My own. So at least Berk has this nugget for us. Hahaha @JustinWeather: Snow in MD on Wed eve could be best in two years. The next one on Sat eve/Sunday could double it. #mdsnow #winter #snomg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 torchytorch GFS looks pretty warm. We got to hang our hats on the NAM. that's usually a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Howard who hasnt been right about anything in years is a better forecaster than justin berk. Justin beiber is more accurate and I thought you were checking in about the weekend storm which the GFS keeps as a biggy south of us. That's probably better than being over us but until there is better model consensus....it's not worth fretting about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If only Bieber were on the these boards to make a forecast! Man we need some snow with Vday or PD....badly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Howard who hasnt been right about anything in years is a better forecaster than justin berk. Justin beiber is more accurate I feel less sad that he unfollowed me on twitter and i returned the favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I feel less sad that he unfollowed me on twitter and i returned the favor. Stay Strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Don't worry 18z gfs is torchy even for me. At most an inch mostly rain. It's a Harrisburg reading special. It's just one 18z run so not too worried but even I need this north trend to stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I feel less sad that he unfollowed me on twitter and i returned the favor. #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I feel less sad that he unfollowed me on twitter and i returned the favor. Yet you still bought his app . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yet you still bought his app . The ironic part is he got mad at me when I wasn't trolling him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The ironic part is he got mad at me when I wasn't trolling him. If he reads this board I can imagine why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 VD is too warm but weekend still has great promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The ironic part is he got mad at me when I wasn't trolling him. Wx boards and wx social media are very serious and dangerous places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Howard who hasnt been right about anything in years is a better forecaster than justin berk. Justin beiber is more accurate I think you got some accumulating snow recently which is what I stated would happend in the DC area for that event. At almost the exact moment you blubbered "Winter Over" is when winter began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 1"+ Probabilities: 00z Wed-00z Thurs 00z Thurs - 00z Friday: I wouldn't look at that. It gave me a 95% chance of seeing an inch with Nemo. We got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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