usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Such a nice track and evolution for a 5-8 inch storm around here. Sucks that the temps are no good. From Ji west there may hope especially for Winterwxluvr. For me, I might as well ount for accumulating snow or set my sights down to seeing a sloppy flake burst on the car window. The sad think is this is the best model for snow of the sorry lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I like my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I still can't punt this one. Bob's excitement about the vort is too infectious. I'm rooting for a really cold rain. I think the nam takes the vort further north than what will verify. It's being going nutz so gfs is prob the the best guidance. Not that cold rain vs colder rain matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ugh, is this really going to be rain? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif it's fairly cold aloft but it's still torching at the surface to start.. even up there. it does look like you get some accum tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On cue, NWS point went from snow/rain to snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My 420' of elevation and 7 miles nw of 495 will save me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On cue, NWS point went from snow/rain to snow/sleet Too bad the zones say rain likely first for you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Balt gets 1-2 on the nam, more in burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On cue, NWS point went from snow/rain to snow/sleet meh, they change with the wind.....no, wait.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks like the surface is still above freezing at 60 hours. Definitely too warm. Where is the cold air when we need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 on a wx related note, I do like the way the 84 hrs 5H has the trough deepening more toward the SW than SE http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 cras is on board for vd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 HI-RES NAM suggests we are cold enough for snow... hrs 51-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 For bwi n im pretty convinced there should be enough for over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 For bwi n im pretty convinced there should be enough for over an inch. i think it definitely depends on surface temps. might be one of those non-accumulating moderate snow events which would be kind of a buzzkill. hopefully most of the precip falls after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 HI-RES NAM suggests we are cold enough for snow... hrs 51-60 That bulk of the precip falls within that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 cras is on board for vd vdcras.JPG We need to call it something besides "vd". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 HI-RES NAM suggests we are cold enough for snow... hrs 51-60 I think HI-RES means it just magnifies it's errors even more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Im whining with the south and east crowd because I would rather see the cities jackpot than home since thats the only shot at a work shutdown. Otherwise I have to drive crappy backroads to try and get into work and deal with school issues for my kid. All the headachs of snow with no benefits. By the time I get home from work it will all melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am not punting anything that has me in blue with 850 temps below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am not punting anything that has me in blue with 850 temps below zero That's the freekin head scratcher here. 19 out 20 times in mid feb this mostly or all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's the freekin head scratcher here. 19 out 20 times in mid feb this mostly or all snow it will be 20 out of 21. In Loudoun County at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I guess what we need to know (anyone knowledgeable chime in), is there any hope for the surface? Would a track a little further south get us some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I guess what we need to know (anyone knowledgeable chime in), is there any hope for the surface? Would a track a little further south get us some snow? Not really. If we were going to get a magical little weak hp in upstate ny or somewhere it would already be showing. Best case is hope you get under the best rates and your temp isn't above 35-36 before they hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Sold. 1-2 inches for everyone in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Has the weather channel named this yet? That will tell if she means business. This is a more reliable method of forecasting than using the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 1"+ Probabilities: 00z Wed-00z Thurs 00z Thurs - 00z Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Just about time for the fork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 While we wait, can someone explain why it takes the NAM so long to run? Because it is run at 12km spatial resolution with a nearly hemispheric domain...and includes multiple higher resolution nests (including the 4km CONUS nest, 6 km Alaska nest, 3 km Puerto Rico and Guam nests, and a single relocatable 1.33 km (CONUS) nest) all simultaneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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