thunderman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean looks like the op but a bit wetter. What does it have along I-81 out here in the Valley (SHD area)? Really wish euro ens weren't treated like gold ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z SREFs are wetter than 9z and a bit colder (but still way warm in the lowest levels). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The euro nailed the blizzard this past weekend yes, but before that it was a mess for much of the winter compared to the GFS in the mid and long range, and not just in our area. I follow out west and northern New England for ski purposes and everytime there was a difference between the two in the 4-10 day range the GFS was schooling the Euro on the general storm track and pattern. I was shocked as I had never remembered as long a stretch where the GFS was doing consistently better then the euro with important details. I say important details because I know the Euro was still winning with H5 verification scored much of that time, but who cares what model is better as the overall hemispheric h5 if one is getting the important gist of storms correct and the other is flailing around like a fish out of water. That said, this past weekend resorted the euro "prestige" a bit and reminds it is still not wise to discard it even in a year when it is obviously not handling the pattern very well. But that said, I would only weight it as an equal chance with the GFS right now given its track record this season. WHen the two disagree its a coin flip in my mind right now. I like having the euros little cousin the UK in the GFS camp for the PD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z SREFs are wetter than 9z and a bit colder (but still way warm in the lowest levels). I guess thats good... thumpage at all? 18z NAM through 30 a lil faster with the s/w by like 60 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 What does it have along I-81 out here in the Valley (SHD area)? Really wish euro ens weren't treated like gold ... prob right on the line of 1-2" snow on snow maps.. similar to op. prob .25-.3" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I guess thats good... thumpage at all? 18z through 30 a lil faster with the s/w No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 prob right on the line of 1-2" snow on snow maps.. similar to op. prob .25-.3" liquid. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nam is a virtual carbon copy of 12z thru 36. I guess you could say the nw shield is a little bigger if you stare long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 While we wait, can someone explain why it takes the NAM so long to run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nam is a virtual carbon copy of 12z thru 36. I guess you could say the nw shield is a little bigger if you stare long enough. Orientation of the shield at 36 is better... but the h5 is a bit further NE on the 18z 36 compared to the 12z 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 While we wait, can someone explain why it takes the NAM so long to run? it runs on an Apple IIe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 While we wait, can someone explain why it takes the NAM so long to run? It takes a long time to come up with a high level of errors and inaccuracies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Orientation of the shield at 36 is better... but the h5 is a bit further NE on the 18z 36 compared to the 12z 42 Looks a little colder at 850 at 42. Nothing major though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 it runs on an Apple IIe that machine had some fun games for it in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 it runs on an Apple IIe loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 While we wait, can someone explain why it takes the NAM so long to run? it needs to contact Matt and wait for his opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 might be slightly north this run...could also just be slightly faster. hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 might be slightly north this run...could also just be slightly faster. hard to tell. this run 42 vs. 12z at 48, it is a hair colder in that the 850 0-line is a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 850's are improved enough to make note but I can't say it makes much of a difference. The alphabet is looking for all it's L's though. They all moved to canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 I still can't punt this one. Bob's excitement about the vort is too infectious. I'm rooting for a really cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Other than the surface the NAM looks great. Sorry for everyone I have offended by making this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I still can't punt this one. Bob's excitement about the vort is too infectious. I'm rooting for a really cold rain. Well, since you started the thread it's prob smart to play the high probability forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 57 and 60 looks good enough to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well, since you started the thread it's prob smart to play the high probability forecast vort looks further north .. may have to punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Surface is overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Its colder at the surface by sundown Wed too. With the contours maps only to go on, I can't tell exactly how much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 little north from 12z I think, just a hair, but I prefer south to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Surface is overrated good news is it might get together in time to slam new england by the time we're said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 zwyts and east probably should punt. Ji west is going for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ugh, is this really going to be rain? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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