clueless Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Depends how far N/W you are talking about. NOT IMBY. Winchester is colder than my spot w of Leesburg. I am at 50 right now. We are just plain warm even if temp falls short today as prog. Is it Feb or correct me? Just frustrating nothing comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro has about 0.39" of precip for IAD, the first .1-.15" looks to be rain based upon the surface being in the upper 30's, but the last 0.25" or so looks like it could be snow, 850's drop from -1.8 to -3.2 and ST drops to 34F, 1000-500 thickness drops to 534. So it looks like maybe a very wet 1-2", probably closer to 1", per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro has about 0.39" of precip for IAD, the first .1-.15" looks to be rain based upon the surface being in the upper 30's, but the last 0.25" or so looks like it could be snow, 850's drop from -1.8 to -3.2 and ST drops to 34F, 1000-500 thickness drops to 534. So it looks like maybe a very wet 1-2", probably closer to 1", per the Euro. Do you have the full sounding? If so, what's the 950 and 925 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Okay, I am grasping at straws. Still feeling the 1-2 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro has about 0.39" of precip for IAD, the first .1-.15" looks to be rain based upon the surface being in the upper 30's, but the last 0.25" or so looks like it could be snow, 850's drop from -1.8 to -3.2 and ST drops to 34F, 1000-500 thickness drops to 534. So it looks like maybe a very wet 1-2", probably closer to 1", per the Euro. And with the euro catching up to the gfs it's *possible* that precip ends up .50+. But I'm not very optimistic we get much if any better with the solutions we have now. We're hitting on 16 with the dealer showing a king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Do you have the full sounding? If so, what's the 950 and 925 temps? Unfortunately no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 And with the euro catching up to the gfs it's *possible* that precip ends up .50+. But I'm not very optimistic we get much if any better with the solutions we have now. We're hitting on 16 with the dealer showing a king. Actually you pushed in all your chips, your sitting on 16 and there are 5 other people sitting at the table with you and none of them are showing a face card and the dealer is showing an Ace! :-))) If you guys can't get 1-2" with a vort tracking to your south and 0.4-0.5" of precip in early February than you guys have been officially cursed. Since RDU seems to be worse off than you guys maybe I am bad luck being up in Herndon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Unfortunately no. I have soundings, warm 900-sfc, could be overcame with a strong thump. Dca maybe +1 at 950, id say +.5 925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hills in N/C MD and perhaps to near IAD def got some snow on the Euro run....an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hills in N/C MD and perhaps to near IAD def got some snow on the Euro run....an inch or two. Yes will, with a better thump I think it could get to cities. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now that the models are converging on a solution/track ....what are thoughts on temps. When in doubt - look outside, right? Initially (based on models) people were forecasting 60 today in northern virginia, and low 50s tomorrow. It looks like most of us are still in the mid/upper 40s today ...so upper 50s/60 looks like it ain't happening. Thus, this air mass feels more stagnant than first forecasted and given the current track/solution ...snow Wed night is not out of the question for the DC area. I am still feeling a solid 1-2 inches DC area wide late Wed night. It's 63 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes will, with a better thump I think it could get to cities. Your thoughts? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's 63 here. 43 in Towson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes will, with a better thump I think it could get to cities. Your thoughts? well he did say Northern and Central Md and to IAD. That doesnt include the cities on the I 95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's 63 here. Wow, 55 here and miles south..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 well he did say Northern and Central Md and to IAD. That doesnt include the cities on the I 95 corridor It would probably snow at the end in the cities but not amount to anything on the Euro. 34F with flakes in the air to end it perhaps. We'd need to see something more like the NAM to get accumulation in areas east of the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It would probably snow at the end in the cities but not amount to anything on the Euro. 34F with flakes in the air to end it perhaps. We'd need to see something more like the NAM to get accumulation in areas east of the fall line. Yep, and it still is sort of an outlier when you look at the SREF temps at least from the 09Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 need some RPM updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 need some RPM updates It is showing 12" with lollies to 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 need some RPM updates It's actually been remotely useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean looks like the op but a bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean looks like the op but a bit wetter. eurfs is late to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean looks like the op but a bit wetter. Euro has gone from bowing to the GFS/NAM to bending over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18z NAM looks somewhat similar (except up in ME) through 21 hrs compared to the 12z at 27 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean looks like the op but a bit wetter. What does it have along I-81 out here in the Valley (SHD area)? Really wish euro ens weren't treated like gold ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z SREFs are wetter than 9z and a bit colder (but still way warm in the lowest levels). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The euro nailed the blizzard this past weekend yes, but before that it was a mess for much of the winter compared to the GFS in the mid and long range, and not just in our area. I follow out west and northern New England for ski purposes and everytime there was a difference between the two in the 4-10 day range the GFS was schooling the Euro on the general storm track and pattern. I was shocked as I had never remembered as long a stretch where the GFS was doing consistently better then the euro with important details. I say important details because I know the Euro was still winning with H5 verification scored much of that time, but who cares what model is better as the overall hemispheric h5 if one is getting the important gist of storms correct and the other is flailing around like a fish out of water. That said, this past weekend resorted the euro "prestige" a bit and reminds it is still not wise to discard it even in a year when it is obviously not handling the pattern very well. But that said, I would only weight it as an equal chance with the GFS right now given its track record this season. WHen the two disagree its a coin flip in my mind right now. I like having the euros little cousin the UK in the GFS camp for the PD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z SREFs are wetter than 9z and a bit colder (but still way warm in the lowest levels). I guess thats good... thumpage at all? 18z NAM through 30 a lil faster with the s/w by like 60 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 What does it have along I-81 out here in the Valley (SHD area)? Really wish euro ens weren't treated like gold ... prob right on the line of 1-2" snow on snow maps.. similar to op. prob .25-.3" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I guess thats good... thumpage at all? 18z through 30 a lil faster with the s/w No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.