TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol @ how painful it seems to get snow into this area. It's either one thing or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol @ how painful it seems to get snow into this area. It's either one thing or another. gotta be tough, ready to biatch, and prepared for rain at all times which also makes the "entitled" mentality of many in NE so absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now that the models are converging on a solution/track ....what are thoughts on temps. When in doubt - look outside, right? Initially (based on models) people were forecasting 60 today in northern virginia, and low 50s tomorrow. It looks like most of us are still in the mid/upper 40s today ...so upper 50s/60 looks like it ain't happening. Thus, this air mass feels more stagnant than first forecasted and given the current track/solution ...snow Wed night is not out of the question for the DC area. I am still feeling a solid 1-2 inches DC area wide late Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Seriously, if it starts at 40 I would doubt even far NW gets anything. That is just goddamn warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Seriously, if it starts at 40 I would doubt even far NW gets anything. That is just goddamn warm. Depends how far N/W you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now that the models are converging on a solution/track ....what are thoughts on temps. When in doubt - look outside, right? Initially (based on models) people were forecasting 60 today in northern virginia, and low 50s tomorrow. It looks like most of us are still in the mid/upper 40s today ...so upper 50s/60 looks like it ain't happening. Thus, this air mass feels more stagnant than first forecasted and given the current track/solution ... Problem with that idea is that we're not in the airmass we'll be in for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Depends how far N/W you are talking about. NOT IMBY. Winchester is colder than my spot w of Leesburg. I am at 50 right now. We are just plain warm even if temp falls short today as prog. Is it Feb or correct me? Just frustrating nothing comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro has about 0.39" of precip for IAD, the first .1-.15" looks to be rain based upon the surface being in the upper 30's, but the last 0.25" or so looks like it could be snow, 850's drop from -1.8 to -3.2 and ST drops to 34F, 1000-500 thickness drops to 534. So it looks like maybe a very wet 1-2", probably closer to 1", per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro has about 0.39" of precip for IAD, the first .1-.15" looks to be rain based upon the surface being in the upper 30's, but the last 0.25" or so looks like it could be snow, 850's drop from -1.8 to -3.2 and ST drops to 34F, 1000-500 thickness drops to 534. So it looks like maybe a very wet 1-2", probably closer to 1", per the Euro. Do you have the full sounding? If so, what's the 950 and 925 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Okay, I am grasping at straws. Still feeling the 1-2 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro has about 0.39" of precip for IAD, the first .1-.15" looks to be rain based upon the surface being in the upper 30's, but the last 0.25" or so looks like it could be snow, 850's drop from -1.8 to -3.2 and ST drops to 34F, 1000-500 thickness drops to 534. So it looks like maybe a very wet 1-2", probably closer to 1", per the Euro. And with the euro catching up to the gfs it's *possible* that precip ends up .50+. But I'm not very optimistic we get much if any better with the solutions we have now. We're hitting on 16 with the dealer showing a king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Do you have the full sounding? If so, what's the 950 and 925 temps? Unfortunately no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 And with the euro catching up to the gfs it's *possible* that precip ends up .50+. But I'm not very optimistic we get much if any better with the solutions we have now. We're hitting on 16 with the dealer showing a king. Actually you pushed in all your chips, your sitting on 16 and there are 5 other people sitting at the table with you and none of them are showing a face card and the dealer is showing an Ace! :-))) If you guys can't get 1-2" with a vort tracking to your south and 0.4-0.5" of precip in early February than you guys have been officially cursed. Since RDU seems to be worse off than you guys maybe I am bad luck being up in Herndon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Unfortunately no. I have soundings, warm 900-sfc, could be overcame with a strong thump. Dca maybe +1 at 950, id say +.5 925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hills in N/C MD and perhaps to near IAD def got some snow on the Euro run....an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hills in N/C MD and perhaps to near IAD def got some snow on the Euro run....an inch or two. Yes will, with a better thump I think it could get to cities. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now that the models are converging on a solution/track ....what are thoughts on temps. When in doubt - look outside, right? Initially (based on models) people were forecasting 60 today in northern virginia, and low 50s tomorrow. It looks like most of us are still in the mid/upper 40s today ...so upper 50s/60 looks like it ain't happening. Thus, this air mass feels more stagnant than first forecasted and given the current track/solution ...snow Wed night is not out of the question for the DC area. I am still feeling a solid 1-2 inches DC area wide late Wed night. It's 63 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes will, with a better thump I think it could get to cities. Your thoughts? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's 63 here. 43 in Towson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes will, with a better thump I think it could get to cities. Your thoughts? well he did say Northern and Central Md and to IAD. That doesnt include the cities on the I 95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's 63 here. Wow, 55 here and miles south..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 well he did say Northern and Central Md and to IAD. That doesnt include the cities on the I 95 corridor It would probably snow at the end in the cities but not amount to anything on the Euro. 34F with flakes in the air to end it perhaps. We'd need to see something more like the NAM to get accumulation in areas east of the fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It would probably snow at the end in the cities but not amount to anything on the Euro. 34F with flakes in the air to end it perhaps. We'd need to see something more like the NAM to get accumulation in areas east of the fall line. Yep, and it still is sort of an outlier when you look at the SREF temps at least from the 09Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 need some RPM updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 need some RPM updates It is showing 12" with lollies to 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 need some RPM updates It's actually been remotely useful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean looks like the op but a bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean looks like the op but a bit wetter. eurfs is late to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean looks like the op but a bit wetter. Euro has gone from bowing to the GFS/NAM to bending over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18z NAM looks somewhat similar (except up in ME) through 21 hrs compared to the 12z at 27 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.