TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think we'd be cold enough on the euro for snow if it had as heavy precip as the gfs nam uk or ggem. Not toasting with light qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro is better...but not thumpy enough...and warm of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still precipitating at 60...boundary still very questionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro is better...but not thumpy enough...and warm of course seems like its still lost but finding its way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 60 has a 998ish low off of oc and temps crashing but freezing still just above md in pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro is better...but not thumpy enough...and warm of course i have little hopes for the vd storm. it's likely to be 40 when it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks like snow as precip exits but hard to tell. The takeaway is a big step towards gfs. I might start trolling dt's page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 25% on paper (mostly fantasy anyway) 75% in the air and on the ground (reality is real) 0% after the storm (next) Yeah, that's the breakdown for me as well - once the storm is over and snow is on the ground, I'm done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah, I'll say it again, if we were to get thumped on the euro, there would be a few inches in balt and maybe dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i have little hopes for the vd storm. it's likely to be 40 when it starts. I punted already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah, I'll say it again, if we were to get thumped on the euro, there would be a few inches in balt and maybe dc. all we need is like 10 factors to improve in the next 48 hours and we are sitting pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Guessing somewhere between .30-.40 for metro DC on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Sounds like the Euro is perhaps 3-6 hours faster than the GFS and NAM? Nighttime would certainly help a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navywxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its funny how euro and gfs also show storms at 192-240 out....lose them for a few days and then bring them back. What causes this to always happen? The GFS model resolution is 35km up to 192hrs. After 192hr the resolution doubles to 70km and the output is very unreliable, most of the data used at those time frames are climo driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 First call DC: .3" BWI: 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 all we need is like 10 factors to improve in the next 48 hours and we are sitting pretty Yea, that sums it up well. 6 more runs of similar improvements in the euro would do it but we don't have that much time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I punted already I wrote something on it for Jason, I actually tried talking him out of an article but we were already committed. Of course the weekend storm popped up on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 NW might get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 whether we get snow or not doesn't change the fact that the Euro has bowed to the GFS/NAM (especially considering neither of them are calling for all snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There's a little bullseye over dc of .25ish in 6 hours @ hr 60. Might be mood flakes that 5 people are awake to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 whether we get snow or not doesn't change the fact that the Euro has bowed to the GFS/NAM (especially considering neither of them are calling for all snow) And you know that's a win in my book. cold rain is much better when the gfs kills the euro for 4+ straight days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NW might get something Maybe, the further north and west you are the better in terms of temps but I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM weaken on the next run or two and it really is the only model that gives much hope as it has the better dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yet you're still here........ I still like to follow weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Maybe, the further north and west you are the better in terms of temps but I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM weaken on the next run or two and it really is the only model that gives much hope as it has the better dynamics. GFS hints at the possibility too though. We just need the nw side to be cranking a bit more. It might be too much to ask but we'll know in a couple days either way. 12z gfs had a good swath of .5 precip over much of md and parts of nova. Rates are everything though. I'm just pointing out details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol @ how painful it seems to get snow into this area. It's either one thing or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol @ how painful it seems to get snow into this area. It's either one thing or another. gotta be tough, ready to biatch, and prepared for rain at all times which also makes the "entitled" mentality of many in NE so absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now that the models are converging on a solution/track ....what are thoughts on temps. When in doubt - look outside, right? Initially (based on models) people were forecasting 60 today in northern virginia, and low 50s tomorrow. It looks like most of us are still in the mid/upper 40s today ...so upper 50s/60 looks like it ain't happening. Thus, this air mass feels more stagnant than first forecasted and given the current track/solution ...snow Wed night is not out of the question for the DC area. I am still feeling a solid 1-2 inches DC area wide late Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Seriously, if it starts at 40 I would doubt even far NW gets anything. That is just goddamn warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Seriously, if it starts at 40 I would doubt even far NW gets anything. That is just goddamn warm. Depends how far N/W you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now that the models are converging on a solution/track ....what are thoughts on temps. When in doubt - look outside, right? Initially (based on models) people were forecasting 60 today in northern virginia, and low 50s tomorrow. It looks like most of us are still in the mid/upper 40s today ...so upper 50s/60 looks like it ain't happening. Thus, this air mass feels more stagnant than first forecasted and given the current track/solution ... Problem with that idea is that we're not in the airmass we'll be in for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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