TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:39 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: We still need some improvement from the GFS..its possible its 850 0c line could be a little off though with where the low is..I still kinda like the NAM and Im not being a weenie Yea low track is pretty optimal, vort and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 still dont know if this is any good but it's gone down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:40 PM, TUweathermanDD said: This is a stage where i prefer the nam on temps, not just because theyre colder But the Nam usually runs to cold so we are not in a great place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS blues us all pretty good. Comes down to changeover time and how much is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:41 PM, ravensrule said: But the Nam usually runs to cold so we are not in a great place. Usually, that hasnt been the case this year, its torched the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:41 PM, ravensrule said: But the Nam usually runs to cold so we are not in a great place. Im not sure thats true...Its higer res...I was under the assumption that the GFS is usually a touch too cold and IF the NAM has a temp bias it would be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM > GFS :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well even though they are useless, GFS snowmap on raleigh still gives Baltimore 2-3"..Ill run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:42 PM, Bob Chill said: GFS blues us all pretty good. Comes down to changeover time and how much is left. no way the soundings are that good on this run around here imo. .1" of wet snow isn't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Pretty sad when a storm track is near perfect and you get rain in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did I read the pre dawn LWX disco correctly???? Possibility of watches for N/W? Get that out of here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:45 PM, snowdude said: Pretty sad when a storm track is near perfect and you get rain in February Life of a MA snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think this one is so marginal and will have such a razor-thin R/S line that we can't expect the models to all agree perfectly. Unfortunately we'll have to just watch temps, dew points, and radar on this one and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:46 PM, snowfan said: Did I read the pre dawn LWX disco correctly???? Possibility of watches for N/W? Get that out of here! What's wrong with that, it is entirely possibly PSU gets 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm almost close to going back full pessimist. I'll give it another 24 hours. Gonna hang till I see the whites of the storms eyes. PD3 is my last dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm just going to go with the NAM sounding, the GFS thumps the shiat out of us relative to precip. Final Call DCA: 1.1" IAD: 2.8" JYO: 3.8" FDK: 4" DMW: 4.1" Hoff: 4.7" BWI: 2.4" MTN: 2.9" Golden Eggs: 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:46 PM, snowfan said: Did I read the pre dawn LWX disco correctly???? Possibility of watches for N/W? Get that out of here! That will change for sure. At this point just pick your preferred map. It is going to be really wet snow for sure and may last a nano second with our Feb sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:50 PM, Clueless said: That will change for sure. At this point just pick your preferred map. It is going to be really wet snow for sure and may last a nano second with our Feb sun angle. Though I don't see the true necessity in watches, I find it meaningless that just because it will melt the next morning, that would affect anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:48 PM, TUweathermanDD said: I'm just going to go with the NAM sounding, the GFS thumps the shiat out of us relative to precip. Final Call DCA: 1.1" IAD: 2.8" JYO: 3.8" FDK: 4" DMW: 4.1" Hoff: 4.7" BWI: 2.4" MTN: 2.9" Golden Eggs: 2.6" I, JYO, get a tenth more? What changed from your previous forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:52 PM, Clueless said: I, JYO, get a tenth more? What changed from your previous forecast? Yes, lol, nam weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:48 PM, stormtracker said: I'm almost close to going back full pessimist. I'll give it another 24 hours. Gonna hang till I see the whites of the storms eyes. PD3 is my last dance. Not so fast. You'll get drawn in one more time the middle of next week. Then you can put away your dancing shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:51 PM, TUweathermanDD said: Though I don't see the true necessity in watches, I find it meaningless that just because it will melt the next morning, that would affect anything. Not saying that either. Just keepin' it real for folks with children and dogs who like to play on the snow. This may not cut it. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:57 PM, zwyts said: I'm not sure parsing models makes that much sense now. they probably won't pick up on dynamics Well put. It's a lock we start as rain. The comma'ish feature is the make or break. Hires nam shows some nice but small banding as it moves through wv. Good indication that the nam thinks the cold side of the low will be modestly dynamic. It's pretty likely the jackpot with be a relatively small area. Temps favor n-w but the backside of the low doesn't care. It's going move some bands through wherever it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does the EURO even matter today for this storm? Just curious. Seems like we are hugging the NAM for all it's worth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:48 PM, TUweathermanDD said: I'm just going to go with the NAM sounding, the GFS thumps the shiat out of us relative to precip. Final Call DCA: 1.1" IAD: 2.8" JYO: 3.8" FDK: 4" DMW: 4.1" Hoff: 4.7" BWI: 2.4" MTN: 2.9" Golden Eggs: 2.6" Golden Eggs being Back River, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:04 PM, Scraff said: Does the EURO even matter today for this storm? Just curious. Seems like we are hugging the NAM for all it's worth? euro always matters. If it comes in significantly weaker and drier then you have to consider it. If it comes in similar then we have consensus. Which would be nice. Then we can just dissect dynamics instead of freaking out over the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah the gfs soundings for near dc are rough.. better skipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 FWIW, NAM is winning in TX/OK from what I am reading from brettjrob and baro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 3:45 PM, snowdude said: Pretty sad when a storm track is near perfect and you get rain in February It's the new winter event,hopefully we have a dry summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS: NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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