PatrickSumner Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 IWX putting the GGEM on the back-burner for the weekend storm but not completely discounting it's solution... WHILE AN OUTLIER...SEVERAL RUNSOF THE GEM NHEM MODEL HAVE BEEN SHOWING PHASING OF N/S STREAMSYSTEMS SOONER THAN LATER WITH A STORM AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES VSEAST COAST. ECMWF/GFS DO NOT PHASES THE ENERGY UNTIL REACHING EASTCOAST SO AT THIS POINT HAVE TO PUT IT ON THE BACK BURNER BUT WILLNEED TO WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 skilling was my fav met growing up. age has done something to him. living all my life in sw mi and n in, chi forecast were relevant to me. he was the god! his rpm should burn in hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 IWX putting the GGEM on the back-burner for the weekend storm but not completely discounting it's solution... WHILE AN OUTLIER...SEVERAL RUNSOF THE GEM NHEM MODEL HAVE BEEN SHOWING PHASING OF N/S STREAMSYSTEMS SOONER THAN LATER WITH A STORM AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES VSEAST COAST. ECMWF/GFS DO NOT PHASES THE ENERGY UNTIL REACHING EASTCOAST SO AT THIS POINT HAVE TO PUT IT ON THE BACK BURNER BUT WILLNEED TO WATCH. IWX = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 skilling was my fav met growing up. age has done something to him. living all my life in sw mi and n in, chi forecast were relevant to me. he was the god! his rpm should burn in hell. I think the social media has influenced him a bit, not necessarily age. He's still very good at forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I believe Mr. Skilling first hit the airwaves here on Channel 9 back about 1978, or so..... He has been my favorite TV met ever since..... We can do without a repeat of last March. In fact, we can do without a repeat of all of last spring and summer. I would love to see another snow storm, a decent one before Winter fades out on us, but, I don't want to jinx it by quoting odds. I'll just wait and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 random thought from a baggy-eyed weenie. wish the euro and nam initialization times were reversed. We'd all get a lot more sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't think I have ever stayed up for an 0z Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't think I have stayed up for an 0z Euro run this winter. ^I think you meant this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Here's a snippet from the forecaster at the NWS office in the Quad Cities. The only sentences you NEED to understand are the last one and a half!!! ECMWF/GFS REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST INCLUDING THE ENTIRE DVN CWA ABOUT THURSDAY/FRIDAY FEBRUARY 21/22. THIS LOCKED AND ACTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIDWEST SNOWSTORMS ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 3 DAYS GOING THROUGH THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. STAY TUNED. Mike Caplan threw this up on Facebook a little under an hour ago. For the city of Chicago specifically, if current forecasts panned out, there would be snowstorms on the 22nd, 25th, and 28th. However, because these are so far out in fantasy land, Caplan tells all to take this with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol @ Caplan Weenie throwdown in chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 All the Chicago TV mets should join this forum. Maybe not Jerry Taft, he's kinda anti-weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol, he should board here Definitely would troll him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 All the Chicago TV mets should join this forum. Maybe not Jerry Taft, he's kinda anti-weenie. There's always an opening on Debbie Downer lane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 From DTX THE ACTIVE PATTERN BREAKS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW CHANCES WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IS POISED TO BRING AN ABRUPT END TO THE DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DESPITE THE SYSTEM BEING IN THE LAST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...THERE IS A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL THAT FAR OUT. INITIAL MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR MAINLY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THIS EVENT...WHICH WOULD MEAN SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON THESE SOLUTIONS DESPITE THE AGREEMENT...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z Euro ensemble mean images Storm #1 (Feb 18-19) Storm #2 (Feb 21-22) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Man the 12z GFS opens up the mother of all Pacific Jets into the West Coast into the mid/long range. As do the Euro, GGEM and the Ukie looks to as well, based on the hemispheric view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18z GFS looks fairly similar to the 12z Euro for storm #1, if people want to get a better idea of what it showed. Not the prettiest outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mike Caplan threw this up on Facebook a little under an hour ago. For the city of Chicago specifically, if current forecasts panned out, there would be snowstorms on the 22nd, 25th, and 28th. However, because these are so far out in fantasy land, Caplan tells all to take this with a grain of salt. Caplan is my other fave. He's not as dry as Taft, and alot more informative. LOL, snow storms every 3 days.... Wow... Taking this with a shaker of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro looked very impressive with the system from 192-240 (and would really destroy Chicago, lol), that may become the one to watch. Based on the activity shown, including the teleconnections, it would appear that one of these things eventually has to blow up considering the amount of energy in the forecasted pattern. This really has some explosive potential if it plays out as progged by many of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 By the way...We have been in an active pattern since December. Active Northern stream yes, the Southern stream has been pretty tame for most of the winter. When it did get active for small bursts we ended up with decent systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Probably for the best. If it does come together, better later than now. Worst thing would be showing a major phase then lose it following runs like 2009. +100 --- Yeah Caplan is quite informative and seems to like snow more than Taft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Longer range starting to look interesting. Regarding the day 10 storm... http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/600/hulkvx.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Caplan is my other fave. He's not as dry as Taft, and alot more informative. LOL, snow storms every 3 days.... Wow... Taking this with a shaker of salt. goddamn. your sig made me just cut myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 goddamn. your sig made me just cut myself. Ya like that, huh? There is more hack writing where that came from..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 the amount of WFOs jumping on the day 10 storm is kinda weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I think I heard Joe say he pulled stats on slow winters that turn themselves around? Here's the list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 the amount of WFOs jumping on the day 10 storm is kinda weird Yeah I have to agree, I mean the storm has been on the GFS for several days but it is hard to buy into a 10 day storm even if there is some model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Awful run of the GFS. Shows rain for Toronto and Detroit on the 19th-20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Solid fantasy land storm on the 12z GFS (18-19th). Maybe cyclone get some love with that one. So close, if only it wasn't so borderline on temps. Chances are some snowcover will still be around, at least if we get a couple inches with the weak clipper in parts of the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ugh. Looks like GFS is telling us there is no cold air in place for Mon/Tues. looks like a spring storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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