snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 12z Euro shows one more specimen at the end of the run that may turn out interesting around like the 24th...however after that, well that is quite the Alaskan low it has developed by day 10. You're a LR guru OHweather. You anticipating a Morch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You're a LR guru OHweather. You anticipating a Morch? Gonna be a lot deflated weenies if they're expecting an explicit March 2012 repeat. And I think there is quite a few who believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gonna be a lot deflated weenies if they're expecting an explicit March 2012 repeat. And I think there is quite a few who believe that. Not sure how anyone can expect an exact repeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gonna be a lot deflated weenies if they're expecting an explicit March 2012 repeat. And I think there is quite a few who believe that. mid 80s in March aren't a thing now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 12z Euro shows one more specimen at the end of the run that may turn out interesting around like the 24th...however after that, well that is quite the Alaskan low it has developed by day 10. I've been worried about late Feb for a while especially if the MJO is into the warm phases by then. But there are opportunities before it potentially happens so might as well try to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You're a LR guru OHweather. You anticipating a Morch? No...but we won't be cold straight through till April...I was thinking a week long or so warmup around the beginning of March and a return to normal to possibly below during the second week of the month...as of a few days ago. Haven't looked closely since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah, I thought we were golden...then late hard left/strengthening. Fantasy, but fun looking storm for some.Tim how does the storm around the 19-20th look for me and SSC? Snowy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 saved an image of that 240 hr storm...just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Tim how does the storm around the 19-20th look for me and SSC? Snowy? We'd be wintry pcpn. Maybe going over to PL/ZR but not RA. Not with that high over QC. But 10 days out who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Skilling just posted an image of the 240hr ECMWF on Facebook. What a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol, he should board here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Apparently the ggem upgrade makes it orders of magnitude more accurate, specifically for winters in North America... Bummer for the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Tim how does the storm around the 19-20th look for me and SSC? Snowy? We'd be wintry pcpn. Maybe going over to PL/ZR but not RA. Not with that high over QC. But 10 days out who cares. Yep. Seriously, it looked GHD-ish. So, whatever you got in that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not sure how anyone can expect an exact repeat... Yea, lets repeat and completely wipe out the fruit crop. Chances are if we do get another Morch, April will be less forgiving than last year for people south of I-94. The Illinois and Indiana people will finally get their snowstorm sometime in April. 6" and a hard freeze after a week in the 70s and 80s. Just wait and watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yep. Seriously, it looked GHD-ish. So, whatever you got in that... Massive dry slot lol. I was actually talkingAbout the system before D10. The D6-7 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Skilling just posted an image of the 240hr ECMWF on Facebook. What a weenie. one of my friends and one of the best forecasters I know actually got into it with him yesterday on fb over skilling putting so much stake into a 192hr GFS op prog. Both weren't backing down defending their sides. But doing that is stupid and now he is just playing to the crowd when a model shows a storm in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Massive dry slot lol. I was actually talking About the system before D10. The D6-7 system. Low basically goes over your head. Messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 DVN....surprisingly not from Nichols NEXT WEEK...PNA/NAO/AO ALL TRENDING NEGATIVE WHICH WILL FAVORSEVERAL PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND ACROSS THECOUNTRY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL FAVORACCUMULATING SNOW IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN. THE FIRST STORM SYSTEMWILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING IS STILLUNCERTAIN. IF THE CURRENT ECMWF/GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT THEN OUR SEHALF WOULD RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AMOUNTAND TIMING OF PHASING WILL DETERMINE IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHERNORTH THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. FOR NOW WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ONMONDAY NIGHT FOR SNOW.ECMWF/GFS REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TOMUCH OF THE MIDWEST INCLUDING THE ENTIRE DVN CWA ABOUTTHURSDAY/FRIDAY FEBRUARY 21/22. THIS LOCKED AND ACTIVE PATTERNSUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIDWEST SNOWSTORMS ARRIVING ABOUT EVERY 3DAYS GOING THROUGH THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol, classic. Locked and active pattern. Take it to the bank folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol, classic. Locked and active pattern. Take it to the bank folks. Would be nice to see. Skilling has been hyping back loaded winter here for weeks. I think I heard Joe say he pulled stats on slow winters that turn themselves around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Skilling just posted an image of the 240hr ECMWF on Facebook. What a weenie. LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Next week is looking pretty active on the 12z GFS. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 And DT agrees....that would be 3 winters in a row of a Morch, no? That is pretty unreal. March 2011 was colder than normal. March 2010 & 2012 were warm. Interesting to see the cold miser calling for morch (another new term that has already gotten annoying) when the cfs calls for a normal to cold march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol, classic. Locked and active pattern. Take it to the bank folks. Would be nice to see. Skilling has been hyping back loaded winter here for weeks. I think I heard Joe say he pulled stats on slow winters that turn themselves around? I'll post them when I get off work later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 By the way...We have been in an active pattern since December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Would be nice to see. Skilling has been hyping back loaded winter here for weeks. I think I heard Joe say he pulled stats on slow winters that turn themselves around? Definitely agree that this is turning out to be backloaded for this area. --- With regards to last Morch. I highly doubt anyone of us will see another month like that in our lifetimes in the Great Lakes region. We just happen to fall into a stagnant period last March and we happen to be on the warm end of things (i.e. super ridge). A typical warm up in March around here is 4-7 days of temps in the 50s and 60s, then back to reality with another snow system, or at least a period of cold rainy weather with east winds everyday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 March 2011 was colder than normal. March 2010 & 2012 were warm. Interesting to see the cold miser calling for morch (another new term that has already gotten annoying) when the cfs calls for a normal to cold march. Bastardi is getting ridiculous. Just last week he tweeted that the end game of this winter looked like a blend of 2003, 2007 and 2011. Now he's calling for a March torch?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 one of my friends and one of the best forecasters I know actually got into it with him yesterday on fb over skilling putting so much stake into a 192hr GFS op prog. Both weren't backing down defending their sides. But doing that is stupid and now he is just playing to the crowd when a model shows a storm in the LR. He tried to save himself with some cautionary comments, but then shot another blank by mentioning GHD and Hurricane Sandy. BTW, your friend is right and it's a valid point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 By the way...We have been in an active pattern since December. Hard to argue with that. The boring stretches have been there but that is not out of the ordinary. The problem for many of us has been that the bigger activity has not come at the same time when it's been cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hard to argue with that. The boring stretches have been there but that is not out of the ordinary. The problem for many of us has been that the bigger activity has not come at the same time when it's been cold enough to snow. Yep, a couple epic rainstorms and some near misses northwest and slightly wider misses east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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