Thunder Road Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Bizarre how the GGEM keeps hanging on to the weekend storm when its ensembles don't support it and really nothing else does for that matter. The 0z CMC ENS were up to 4 or 5 members out of 20 showing a track in the vicinity. Still gotta believe it's BS, but yeah, you have to wonder what it's seeing or not seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 For real, it has a weak low that runs some light precip from PA and on northeast. Actually a slight step back for those areas from the 0z run. EDIT: maybe some snow for AR and LA at 108 hours. Next week's storm any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Next week's storm any good? Not there yet. I mean the run isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol...GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not there yet. I mean the run is. You using wundermap or a paysite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z GEFS are snooze city for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=udS-OcNtSWo LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z Euro looks like it wants to hold the northern and southern vorts separate through 162 hours. Still a storm forms, which is a bit east of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 3rd down and long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z Euro looks like it wants to hold the northern and southern forts separate through 162 hours. Still a storm forms, which is a bit east of the 0z run. That blows. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z Euro looks like it wants to hold the northern and southern vorts separate through 162 hours. Still a storm forms, which is a bit east of the 0z run. Trough looks deeper on this run. We're still ok I think but we will be living dangerously if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That blows. Oh well. Well, I mean it has a storm...but it's just different than the 0z run. Kind of a broad low pressure...seemingly the northern one absorbs the southern one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Trough looks deeper on this run. We're still ok I think but we will be living dangerously if that continues. I'm thinking 75% chance all rain/25% chance all snow for us at the moment. As if there is such a thing 6+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The NAO blocking will again be meager into next week...the 50/50 low on this image will be a highly transient one with nothing to pin it back over Newfoundland so there will be room for any storm to cut. One concern is the next piece of energy crashing into the west coast not far behind the shortwave the models are spinning into a nice storm for portions of the sub-forum... perhaps not allowing the shortwave in question Monday-Tuesday to amplify enough to get a phase with the STJ...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well, I mean it has a storm...but it's just different than the 0z run. Kind of a broad low pressure...seemingly the northern one absorbs the southern one. I see what you mean now on the PSU site. Seems a little odd. I'm thinking in the end one or the other becomes the dominant player earlier. My $0.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm thinking 75% chance all rain/25% chance all snow for us at the moment. As if there is such a thing 6+ days out. I'm not committing to anything but I wouldn't be surprised if we come out of this stretch with not a lot to show for it. Having that system in the PAC NW at 168 hours on the Euro probably helps in terms of not getting something more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Round 2 in the TX panhandle at 204 hrs...don't think it'll cut very hard, if at all with the Euro bombing the first one over ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The NAO blocking will again be meager into next week...the 50/50 low on this image will be a highly transient one with nothing to pin it back over Newfoundland so there will be room for any storm to cut. One concern is the next piece of energy crashing into the west coast not far behind the shortwave the models are spinning into a nice storm for portions of the sub-forum... perhaps not allowing the shortwave in question Monday-Tuesday to amplify enough to get a phase with the STJ...we'll see. GEFS 144.png I agree about the 50/50 low being transient but I don't think there's enough wavelength between the D5 storm and the D6-7 storm to allow the latter storm to cut hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm not committing to anything but I wouldn't be surprised if we come out of this stretch with not a lot to show for it. Having that system in the PAC NW at 168 hours on the Euro probably helps in terms of not getting something more amped. We're on the same page then, essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I agree about the 50/50 low being transient but I don't think there's enough wavelength between the D5 storm and the D6-7 storm to allow the latter storm to cut hard. I don't think it will cut "hard" but a track up towards Detroit wouldn't shock me...I don't know if there will be room for anything farther NW than that, if there ends up being a decent storm around day 6-7. There will be less space between the day 6-7 storm and day 9ish storm so the day 9 storm, if it occurs, may run a good deal farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not enough to get excited about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Big daddy at the end of the 12z Euro. Would make those who have been screwed this winter a little less bitter. lol, I can see sleet here at 240 hours. Congrats Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 240 hours, always 240 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 240 hours, always 240 hours Best run of your 2012-13 winter life. Looks like GHD II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Big daddy at the end of the 12z Euro. Would make those who have been screwed this winter a little less bitter. lol, I can see sleet here at 240 hours. Congrats Chicago. Looks like that storm off the east coast gets out of the way just in time to allow that one to make a beeline toward us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like that storm off the east coast gets out of the way just in time to allow that one to make a beeline toward us. Yeah, I thought we were golden...then late hard left/strengthening. Fantasy, but fun looking storm for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah, I thought we were golden...then late hard left/strengthening. Fantasy, but fun looking storm for some. We might get thumped before a potential mix/changeover on that run but doesn't pay to overanalyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Big daddy at the end of the 12z Euro. Would make those who have been screwed this winter a little less bitter. lol, I can see sleet here at 240 hours. Congrats Chicago. The system before that looked good for LAF/Indy Then the big one after goes from LA to EVV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 just about all 12z GFS members are active in that timeframe...many are liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 12z Euro shows one more specimen at the end of the run that may turn out interesting around like the 24th...however after that, well that is quite the Alaskan low it has developed by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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