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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 4


hm8

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There is certainly room for a storm to cut west with weak NAO blocking...I still don't like that the ridging out west is on the flatter side, causing the trough to be a bit progressive and not allowing it to fully amplify till it is right on top of our region...but with no strong -NAO, a phase before the Apps would certainly make things interesting for the eastern Lakes and Ohio Valley...just too early to pin that down. GGEM has been consistent showing a more phased solution for a few runs now, although the Euro and to some extent the GFS have been just as consistent in saying no.

 

post-525-0-23034100-1360648946_thumb.gif

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00z GFS ensemble members have some seriously dynamic looking solutions once this western troughing/negative height anomaly sets up at around 192-216 hrs, with one or perhaps multiple very impressive systems potentially. Keep an eye on this period, this might be a good time to look for a big one.

 

They are cranking both the ST and Pacific Jets into high gear with phasing as well.

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Yup, one random snowy solution in the 12z CMC ENS.  Figures that one solution would be the Op tonight, haha.

 

mgram_precip_Chicago.png

 

Interesting clustering around D10-11 though.  Looks like 5 members with at least somewhat of a snow event for Chicago.  Could just be a Clipper for all we know, though.

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I hate when you go to bed with ggem/nogaps/ncep visions of snowstorms dancing in your head only to wake up to a bucket of cold water thrown at you by the laughing euro.   I suspect the hr 168 threat gets squashed and the 192 hr threat cuts far west....or vice vesa...we'll see.

 

JB actually calling for a MORCH.   The only time he nails longrange is when he is calling for warmth, so there might be something to this.  I hope he's right.

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I hate when you go to bed with ggem/nogaps/ncep visions of snowstorms dancing in your head only to wake up to a bucket of cold water thrown at you by the laughing euro.   I suspect the hr 168 threat gets squashed and the 192 hr threat cuts far west....or vice vesa...we'll see.

 

JB actually calling for a MORCH.   The only time he nails longrange is when he is calling for warmth, so there might be something to this.  I hope he's right.

And DT agrees....that would be 3 winters in a row of a Morch, no? That is pretty unreal.

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I never understand why people who live in a big city complain about weather.... ever.

 

Try finding a job in a location that gets 150 inches a year.... not happening.

 

Buffalo would be the biggest city with a decent amount of jobs that would offer that experience. Or live 15 miles south of Buffalo and get 120 inches a year, or 25 miles south and get 200 inches per year, average commute for me to downtown is 20-25 minutes and I get to drive down the lake the entire time, its beautiful. ^_^

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