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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 4


hm8

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18z GFS doesn't transfer at 108 hours. Primary is still strengthening through 120 hours, then weakens and transfers.

Correct.

 

There is a lead wave that moves through the Carolinas and OTS that leads to a weak surface reflection near the coast starting around 102hrs. This then weakens and actual coastal transfer begins around 120hrs.

 

Not that it matters at this point though.

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Long range pattern on the GFS/Euro looked pretty depressing with the PNA going positive as the AO recovers from its historic drop and the -NAO holding rather firm. The Pacific turns into a mess on the Euro by the end of the run, and it's looking like a pretty bleak period for any type of notable wx in the region into the first week of April.

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CPC monthlies are out. They mention uncertainty with this given the pattern we will likely have to start April.

 

Warm and wet for Ontario and much of the subforum. Sounds exciting to me! Could make up for this March but I'm thinking there will likely be some adjustments made as the pattern adj

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4-8" of snow is expected in NE Arkansas in late March.

Meanwhile, it's an absolutely splendid overcast and 29*F here.

End it now please.

This.

Perfect vampire weather. In MI the month of March can always test the spirit of a man and this month is living up to that. On the bright siide when spring/summery weather arives it will feel amazing and to top it off we get apples and cheeries this year. Slow and steady.

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