buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z Euro is nice for STL and IND. LAF gets basically shut out. Sharp gradient. yea I saw the precip print out...draw a line from IND to DAY then southeast....everyone north of that line, including me, get's whiffed. Even IND is riding the northern fringe. You have to wonder if the ultimate outcome is a blend of the gfs and euro. If so, your area and mine might have a shot at some slush. It will be interesting to see what local offices think and which solution(s) they favor. It's a tough call. Inside of 96 hrs the gfs is giving some of these areas a snowstorm while the euro is giving them nothing. To complicate it more...the gfs isn't necessarily standing alone either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Ride the EURO like the stallion it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Ride the EURO like the stallion it is. of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I really have no stake in this one right now, but I do think there have been way too many NOGAPS posts in this thread. It is tainting the quality of discussion severely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The Euro is wrong. With that kind of energy discharge, one of those troughs must intensify somewhere with the AO flying upward. The 12z's were sloppy and incoherent. They didn't sample in the end of the -AO either by the end of the month either, which means changes are coming. Props or trolling to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Honestly looking at the models, I would say the Euro is probably too far South and the GFS is definitely too far North. It feels weird saying this but the GGEM makes the most sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Honestly looking at the models, I would say the Euro is probably too far South and the GFS is definitely too far North. It feels weird saying this but the GGEM makes the most sense. lol, the GGEM has been NOGAPS awful this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I really have no stake in this one right now, but I do think there have been way too many NOGAPS posts in this thread. It is tainting the quality of discussion severely. Since I'm the biggest violator of your valid concern, I'd like to apologize and include a snippet of some of the otherwise high quality discussion in this thread getting buried in nogaps banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 lol, the GGEM has been NOGAPS awful this year It has been, I am not denying that but looking at the pattern and what it shows, it looks closest to what I would expect to happen. The low can only go so far NW before hitting the block and moving E. The Euro has a bias of over strengthening blocks compared to what verifies so it makes sense it would want to squash this too far South. Last night's Euro was pretty reasonable as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Since I'm the biggest violator of your valid concern, I'd like to apologize and include a snippet of some of the otherwise high quality discussion in this thread getting buried in nogaps banter. Yeah because 2 wrongs make a right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Since I'm the biggest violator of your valid concern, I'd like to apologize and include a snippet of some of the otherwise high quality discussion in this thread getting buried in nogaps banter. Sorry that I'm replying to awful posts with appropriate responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Since I'm the biggest violator of your valid concern, I'd like to apologize and include a snippet of some of the otherwise high quality discussion in this thread getting buried in nogaps banter. Sorry that I'm replying to awful posts with appropriate responses. Your trolling... It's that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Your trolling... It's that simple. Coming from you? Are you seriously kidding me right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Your trolling... It's that simple. Coming from you? Are you seriously kidding me right now... Your a drive-by troll.... Quick hit and run trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Your trolling... It's that simple. You troll all the time, give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 You troll all the time, give it a rest. everyone calm down. 18z nogaps is initializing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Your a drive-by troll.... Quick hit and run trolling. Sorry that I enjoy worthwhile discussion from time to time (like OHweather's posts, for example) and not stuff like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Watch the blocking be slower to break down and it ends up being a whiff to the south....on March 31.... 12z Euro is nice for STL and IND. LAF gets basically shut out. Sharp gradient. Ride the EURO like the stallion it is. :axe: I really have no stake in this one right now, but I do think there have been way too many NOGAPS posts in this thread. It is tainting the quality of discussion severely. He said taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Your a drive-by troll.... Quick hit and run trolling. Sorry that I enjoy worthwhile discussion from time to time (like OHweather's posts, for example) and not stuff like this... Because I'm deleting his posts and replacing them with my own. I'm not going to respond to this discussion again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Here we go again... getting real old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Here we go again... getting real old THIS ^^^^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 This is going to be a real pain to pin down for another few days until we get a clearer picture of what wave spacing will look like and which wave is most likely to amplify. With the blocking, suppression or a strung out mess are going to be concerns as we'll need whatever is going to happen to happen far enough west with limited space to do so thanks to the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GFS looks good at 102hr, a bit stronger and faster through 102hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 18z GFS stayed farther south this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GFS forces a coastal too quickly on this run, I do believe there will be one but I don't think it will be occurring as soon as 108hr not with the upper low still back over MO. That is a GFS screw up there as the coastal would divert moisture that would have ended up further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 GFS forces a coastal too quickly on this run, I do believe there will be one but I don't think it will be occurring as soon as 108hr not with the upper low still back over MO. That is a GFS screw up there as the coastal would divert moisture that would have ended up further North. How often do you see a transfer with the ULL that far west? I think someone, maybe Hoosier, said that it occurs, but I don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 How often do you see a transfer with the ULL that far west? I think someone, maybe Hoosier, said that it occurs, but I don't remember. It can occur but not very often and not with the ridging that would be in place at 500mb at the time. By 120hr it makes more sense as you have height falls starting to occur along the coast. Essentially it is 12hr too fast with respect to popping the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Here we go again... getting real old This is called Michigan missing a storm. Ohio follows shortly. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 18z GFS doesn't transfer at 108 hours. Primary is still strengthening through 120 hours, then weakens and transfers. But it's just one solution to the storm idea. As OHweather said, it's going to take a couple of days for the models, and us, to somewhat accurately sort this thing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 18z GFS doesn't transfer at 108 hours. Primary is still strengthening through 120 hours, then weakens and transfers. But it's just one solution to the storm idea. As OHweather said, it's going to take a couple of days for the models, and us, to somewhat accurately sort this thing out. Yeah, it isn't transferring at 108 but there is a coastal low that has formed at that point it would still affect the low level moisture flow up to the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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