Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Comparing the 0z GFS to the 12z GFS, not sure I've seen such a dramatic difference in solutions inside 168 hours. Alas, no foreign model support...no dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 It's interesting to see the gfs so far north. This might be one of those times where the euro begins to cave to the gfs and we end up with another slopfest in the OV and a wet snowstorm further nw. Yes, certainly some nice role reversal on the models right now. The agreement on the GFS ensembles is outstanding, to say the least. It isn't encouraging that the Euro ensembles also tend to gravitate towards the op Euro, so truly it is GFS vs. Euro. When doing some really rudimentary MS Paint analysis of the 12z Euro ensembles, there are certainly a couple of interesting features here, and a couple of concerning ones. 1. In a situation like this where the blocking is going to limit how much space any particular wave has to amplify, if the wave spacing isn't great enough, destructive interference between waves is certainly a worry. If the wave over Missouri in the image above comes east a bit quicker, or the wave circled on the west coast comes in a bit slower, the wave over Missouri would have just enough room to amplify. 2. There will be an active sub-tropical jet in this timeframe, illustrated by the negative anomalies sitting off of the southwest coast. If we can get one wave to amplify instead of two waves shearing eachother out, a rather deep storm is possible with plenty of moisture to work with. 3. Obviously, the blocking is key to getting a potential snow threat in the Ohio Valley as we head into the latter third of March. The 50/50 low, while strong and securely pinned, isn't too far southwest to completely suppress everything. However, the blocking should allow for enough cold air to be in place north of the Ohio River for any storm to have a swath of accumulating snow on the north side of things. I would say there are a few possible outcomes...if the two waves don't interfere with eachother, the first wave either amplifies enough west of the Apps for a moist storm across the southeastern portions of the sub-forum or it doesn't...if it doesn't, there is probably a better chance when the wave reaches its lowest latitude near or just off the east coast. Either way, if the first wave amplifies, here or on the east coast...the negative height anomaly over the eastern US would probably be enough to suppress the second wave. If the two waves don't interfere but the first storm possibility Sunday-Monday just doesn't pan out for whatever reason, here or on the east coast, we should still be decently primed for the second wave during the middle portion of next week. If the two waves interfere we could end up seeing a whole lot of nothing. With no deep troughing over the west I don't see the option of either storm cutting into the lakes as being a really viable option...if a storm does occur then, the favored area for snow would probably be from just north of the Ohio River to the southern lakes...with places like Detroit, Lafayette and Chicago being near the northern edge of any reasonable snow possibility. My thinking is if a storm amplifies enough early enough to drop snows on this sub-forum, there will be just enough room for it to gain enough northerly component of motion that I wouldn't want to be near or south of the Ohio River...and with the blocking there likely is only so far north a storm can go. So, there is some potential across the lower lakes and upper Ohio Valley, first Sunday-Monday, then somewhere around next Thursday, and after that unclear although the blocking looks to begin weakening into April, however there are a couple of different ways to get to a storm and several ways we don't see a storm...so take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Ok then...0z UKie with its newest solution. Beastly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 Awesome addition to the SPC mesoanalysis pages that I just noticed today, not sure if it's been brought up in here yet. They now provide a climatology for lat/lon points (that you double click in the map to call up) base on the tornado environment browser (2003-2011). You can break the variables down by convective mode (supercell vs. QLCS), by statistical graphs, maps, or diurnal breakdown. The work they've done in recent years is top notch. Should be a great tool for this season, and I know many people in here will enjoy these. That is so top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 0z GGEM almost a mirror image of the UK at 144 hours. Weakens/transfers rapidly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 0z GGEM almost a mirror image of the UK at 144 hours. Weakens/transfers rapidly thereafter. 3:19 0z GGEM 144.gif So both of those models went from suppressed crap last run to deepening it and occluding way early before a transfer. Nice. GFS was north too 0z...Congrats Cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 So both of those models went from suppressed crap last run to deepening it and occluding way early before a transfer. Nice. GFS was north too 0z...Congrats Cyclone? 12z UK looks like it was going to be north/or similar going off 144 hours, so it probably didn't change much per se. GGEM of course, a big move north. But yeah, congrats IA, WI, etc...lol. EDIT: 0z GGEM doesn't get much precip into Chicago, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 So both of those models went from suppressed crap last run to deepening it and occluding way early before a transfer. Nice. GFS was north too 0z...Congrats Cyclone? He might be in a good spot right now. It's interesting, for a late March storm precip type doesn't concern me a ton for those in the Great Lakes (at least for those with some snowcover) since there will be plenty of cold air with the current airmass. More concerning is suppression as OH Weather mentioned in his post above, as well as whether it weakens/transfers too soon. Edit: though with the GEM/UK solutions it looks like cold air is pretty limited to just within 150 miles or so of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Here we go again! Let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Here we go again! Let's do this Yeah, let's see how mad the public gets if the region gets another sweet snowstorm or two after this cold week. I feel for those students who went down south or to Arizona/tropical climates over break and have to come back to this, but it still is nice to see a super cold month, it's been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z UK looks like it was going to be north/or similar going off 144 hours, so it probably didn't change much per se. GGEM of course, a big move north. But yeah, congrats IA, WI, etc...lol. EDIT: 0z GGEM doesn't get much precip into Chicago, verbatim. Well, that's good to know that the now over amped Canadian doesn't get precip into Chicago...actually jives well with the area I laid out on the last page, although the quick transfer kind of screws areas farther east. I just now got around to looking at the 12z UK ( )...I had just assumed it was suppressed...the 0z run is certainly more amped although the 12z run may have been getting ready to do something, just a bit farther southeast than the current 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Well, that's good to know that the now over amped Canadian doesn't get precip into Chicago...actually jives well with the area I laid out on the last page, although the quick transfer kind of screws areas farther east. I just now got around to looking at the 12z UK ( )...I had just assumed it was suppressed...the 0z run is certainly more amped although the 12z run may have been getting ready to do something, just a bit farther southeast than the current 0z. If the storm didn't hit a brick wall like several have this winter, this would be a good track for DVN, Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, etc. Not surprising, though, even some of the amped GFS Ensemble solutions struggled to track the precip into the Great Lakes anywhere past Milwaukee or Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 If the storm didn't hit a brick wall like several have this winter, this would be a good track for DVN, Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, etc. Not surprising, though, even some of the amped GFS Ensemble solutions struggled to track the precip into the Great Lakes anywhere past Milwaukee or Detroit. Yeah...certainly don't want to pull a DT and say the 0z UK, Canadian and GFS were "FokoIng ImposIblee" and that precip will not get north of the OV...because like I said on the last page, there's a little room to work with...but there is a realistic northern edge to how far appreciable precip can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Probably need to weenie myself for even looking at it...but buckeye's go to model, the nogaps, has the low going up through/or close to Chicago on its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Probably need to weenie myself for even looking at it...but buckeye's go to model, the nogaps, has the low going up through/or close to Chicago on its 0z run. It still drops snow over the northern half of Ohio because of the quick occlusion, and is decent for areas like Detroit...and I wouldn't have looked if you didn't say anything I'll never root against snow, but I have an important commitment in Akron next Monday...will be driving up in the late morning and back down to school late afternoon...if there's one day where it could not snow (and maybe snow, say, Monday night instead) it's next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 00z Euro caving to the more amplified guidance at 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Interesting. Still 144 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Probably need to weenie myself for even looking at it...but buckeye's go to model, the nogaps, has the low going up through/or close to Chicago on its 0z run. ....hold that thought....6z just in and it's back to massive suppression...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 From DVN lol... MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF HEAVY WET SNOW NORTH OFI80 WITH A LAUGHABLE 2 FT OF SNOW AT DBQ BY 12Z MON. WILL SIDE WITHTHE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF FOR NOW AND KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPSSUNDAY INTO MON. THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE LATEST RUNS BY MOSTMODELS IS TROUBLING HOWEVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Cyclone... It will fall here... All the models show nothing but turd weather in the long range. I see no warmth, except maybe temps going more towards normal in early April. ..maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 storm thread would be 10+ pages already if it were January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 00z NOGAPS was a weenie January 1999ish solution. Yeah, while good eye candy, I doubt it happens. It is the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I didn't even think people looked at the NOGAPS anymore...wasn't Joe B using that 12 years ago on his video update ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 6z GFS looks like the other 0z models. I get the feeling that this turns into a more suppressed solution in the end (big blocking, etc). Maybe I'm wrong though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 good ol' JD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Who's john dee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Who's john dee? BowMe's weather idol. He's a guy/met who lives up in the U.P., and does snow forecasting. Tends to have a north bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 good ol' JD He's normally too far north, so push his map south about 150 miles and it will likely be a good map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 JD tends to be just awful in general...no shifting south needed. Just toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 JD tends to be just awful in general...no shifting south needed. Just toss it. So storm cancel for the whole region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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