michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am not denying the boredom to come I am just not understanding the celebration of it.Snowstorm potential around March 25th. Even it ends up cold and dry, I don't think people are so much celebrating the boredome, its more we heard "morch" all winter then in recent weeks (when its become apparent there is no morch) some are looking at one warm model run or just picking random dates to say warmth is coming and its not happening. Almost like a friendly competition with the heat misers and snow misers. I still will take my chances in a cold pattern, hell even if its just a clipper like sat. But for the severe wx lovers or just those ready for spring I can understand thw frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Snowstorm potential around March 25th. Even it ends up cold and dry, I don't think people are so much celebrating the boredome, its more we heard "morch" all winter then in recent weeks (when its become apparent there is no morch) some are looking at one warm model run or just picking random dates to say warmth is coming and its not happening. Almost like a friendly competition with the heat misers and snow misers. I still will take my chances in a cold pattern, hell even if its just a clipper like sat. But for the severe wx lovers or just those ready for spring I can understand thw frustration. 1/100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z GFS looks cold right through April 4th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm just looking at the 2m anomaly maps off tropicaltidbits, but not sure i can post them here... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013031812/gfs-ens_T2ma_us_65.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z GFS looks cold right through April 4th... Just watch. The predicted warmup will keep getting pushed back... just like the "deep freeze" kept getting pushed back last Dec/Jan. first week of April? .... nope... mid April?... nope... first week of May?... nope... June... Death Ridge Lock-In Time!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 There is a very epic Morch ongoing ATM. Its centered over the arctic/north pole regions. Not a good place for it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Wowsers...maybe i'll start grabbing a little warm air from out west as the east sits in a deep freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 There is a very epic Morch ongoing ATM. Its centered over the arctic/north pole regions. Not a good place for it either. An epic torch in March isn't going to melt the ice if that's what you're implying. Instead of -20F it might be in the single digits above zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 CPC busting out the deep purples with today's 6-10 day outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 There is a very epic Morch ongoing ATM. Its centered over the arctic/north pole regions. Not a good place for it either. An epic torch in March isn't going to melt the ice if that's what you're implying. Instead of -20F it might be in the single digits above zero. It was only 2 degrees above normal in Barrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It was only 2 degrees above normal in Barrow. Warmest Temps I found were in the Single digits in Northern Canada. Most of the Arctic was between 8 and -25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Just watch. The predicted warmup will keep getting pushed back... just like the "deep freeze" kept getting pushed back last Dec/Jan. first week of April? .... nope... mid April?... nope... first week of May?... nope... June... Death Ridge Lock-In Time!!!!!! There's rationalizing and then there's just nonsense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol gfs Some of the GEFS members are lol x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 It was only 2 degrees above normal in Barrow. An epic torch in March isn't going to melt the ice if that's what you're implying. Instead of -20F it might be in the single digits above zero. I guess 558dm heights & 18+ 850 temp anomalies over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean are no big deal then. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 March 25th snowstorm potential- the GFS and its ensembles have had a snowstorm for a few days now....some suppressed, some a direct hit, and some north. Todays 18z is the best yet (op-run) here with over 0.70" qpf of snow. Also every ensemble but one hits us with snow. But I see the GEM doesnt have it and per the Euro output it doesnt either. Im wondering if any of the euro ensembles show a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 March 25th snowstorm potential- the GFS and its ensembles have had a snowstorm for a few days now....some suppressed, some a direct hit, and some north. Todays 18z is the best yet (op-run) here with over 0.70" qpf of snow. Also every ensemble but one hits us with snow. But I see the GEM doesnt have it and per the Euro output it doesnt either. Im wondering if any of the euro ensembles show a storm. The GFS is likely wrong given the tanking AO (although it does rebound by the time of the storm in question just a bit), but then again, the GFS did well with the last storm, so this upcoming event is something to keep an eye on in the S Great Lakes anyway. North of that, cold dry air is likely to be too much to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I guess 558dm heights & 18+ 850 temp anomalies over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean are no big deal then. lol straw man arguments FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Snowstorm potential around March 25th. Even it ends up cold and dry, I don't think people are so much celebrating the boredome, its more we heard "morch" all winter then in recent weeks (when its become apparent there is no morch) some are looking at one warm model run or just picking random dates to say warmth is coming and its not happening. Almost like a friendly competition with the heat misers and snow misers. I still will take my chances in a cold pattern, hell even if its just a clipper like sat. But for the severe wx lovers or just those ready for spring I can understand thw frustration. DC crowd all over this....that usually ends up boding well for someone in our region. Now all we need is DT declaring "no fking way this cuts to Chicago". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 DC crowd all over this....that usually ends up boding well for someone in our region. Now all we need is DT declaring "no fking way this cuts to Chicago". In his weekly video yesterday he said if anything happens it will either be on or just off the east coast. Said the pattern was right but then added that "March snow storms this far south are very unusual, so inherently the probability of it happening this year are low". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 In his weekly video yesterday he said if anything happens it will either be on or just off the east coast. Said the pattern was right but then added that "March snow storms this far south are very unusual, so inherently the probability of it happening this year are low". DT's a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 DC crowd all over this....that usually ends up boding well for someone in our region. Now all we need is DT declaring "no fking way this cuts to Chicago". Don't tell me they want to shut down the city for another 35-degree rainstorm Seriously....Im never a fan of jumping on a model solution...what I like is ensemble agreement....and pretty much every gfs ens has a snowstorm. The best spot you can be is if some hit you, some go south of you, and some go north of you Counting down the days for DT to post "GFS on CRACK...BOZO the MET to...no fooking w ay snow gos NORTH of OHoi RIVER///EURO shows HISTROIC spring snowstorm for DC/VA" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 In his weekly video yesterday he said if anything happens it will either be on or just off the east coast. Said the pattern was right but then added that "March snow storms this far south are very unusual, so inherently the probability of it happening this year are low". It's interesting to see the gfs so far north. This might be one of those times where the euro begins to cave to the gfs and we end up with another slopfest in the OV and a wet snowstorm further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 1/100 Infinity Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Don't tell me they want to shut down the city for another 35-degree rainstorm Seriously....Im never a fan of jumping on a model solution...what I like is ensemble agreement....and pretty much every gfs ens has a snowstorm. The best spot you can be is if some hit you, some go south of you, and some go north of you Counting down the days for DT to post "GFS on CRACK...BOZO the MET to...no fooking w ay snow gos NORTH of OHoi RIVER///EURO shows HISTROIC spring snowstorm for DC/VA" Yeah, but the GFS and its ensembles are generally alone at the moment, so that's a bit concerning. Then again, the GEM and long range NAM (a couple of those more southern looking solutions) are not exactly good models to take into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Awesome addition to the SPC mesoanalysis pages that I just noticed today, not sure if it's been brought up in here yet. They now provide a climatology for lat/lon points (that you double click in the map to call up) base on the tornado environment browser (2003-2011). You can break the variables down by convective mode (supercell vs. QLCS), by statistical graphs, maps, or diurnal breakdown. The work they've done in recent years is top notch. Should be a great tool for this season, and I know many people in here will enjoy these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Yeah, but the GFS and its ensembles are generally alone at the moment, so that's a bit concerning. Then again, the GEM and long range NAM (a couple of those more southern looking solutions) are not exactly good models to take into account. Noticed the 18z nogaps pulled hard into the gfs camp....really far north as in rainstorm for Ohio. Up until 18z it was suppressed like the euro. Probably means nothing but usually the nogaps suppresses everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Awesome addition to the SPC mesoanalysis pages that I just noticed today, not sure if it's been brought up in here yet. They now provide a climatology for lat/lon points (that you double click in the map to call up) base on the tornado environment browser (2003-2011). You can break the variables down by convective mode (supercell vs. QLCS), by statistical graphs, maps, or diurnal breakdown. The work they've done in recent years is top notch. Should be a great tool for this season, and I know many people in here will enjoy these. Wow, that is outstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Noticed the 18z nogaps pulled hard into the gfs camp....really far north as in rainstorm for Ohio. Up until 18z it was suppressed like the euro. Probably means nothing but usually the nogaps suppresses everything. Good thing we don't have a "first poster to mention the NOGAPs" contest for this storm, lol (j/k). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 00z GFS buries much of the Northern Plains, even gives SE WI some love lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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