andyhb Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 This clipper on Monday would be a pretty potent severe setup for the region in May or June when instability is plentiful no matter where you go essentially, it has a fairly similar setup to two impressive events in the Great Lakes just off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 As I've been mentioning elsewhere for the past 2 weeks, punting (In regards to consistent mild and severe opportunities) until early April at the earliest has always been the right idea with the pattern in place. The GFS does show hope towards the end of the month, but it has been terrible with forecasting the AO for a while now and is probably forcing the issue a bit too early once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I just want something BIG locally (weather-wise) to come out of this crap. No more salt on the wound. And no more salt on the car. C'mon big rainstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 12z GEM is money for northern IL for a good snowstorm Sunday. It's all on it's own though. GEM sucks so the chances of it verifying are about as good as the 384hr GFS verifying. Only missed by oh, about 300 miles. My god the GEM sucks anymore. What the hell happened to that model? It wasn't always the greatest, but now it's just flat out f'g pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 We need that ridging out west to scootch over this way a 1000 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 All the models suck. The ECMWF sucks outside 96hrs. They gave the impression of a warmup, then cooldown with the pattern continuing into April, but now it is -AO dive of death and pattern destruction at the end of March. To much damn suppression by the models in the longer ranges. One 6z GFS run gave the impression of a warm up (kind of) and you jumped all over it. The models have had the strong -AO for a week plus now, it's been clear for a little while now that we wouldn't see any big warm ups any time soon. I agree that suppression sucks balls though. The GFS ensembles for example...have shown a significant AO drop in this time-frame since over ten days ago...have shown a severe drop for over a week now...and never broke into the positive on a day 14 forecast, although they didn't pick up on the huge plunge well until around 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Torch starts just after March 20...as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am on board with the "no spring 'til April" In the long range, it just doesn't look all the promising until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Torch starts just after March 20...as planned. 3:17 12z Euro ENSM 6-10 850 Td.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am on board with the "no spring 'til April" In the long range, it just doesn't look all the promising until then. Glad to have you aboard. But the idea of a March torch, even late month, has been dunzo for awhile. Better luck in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Torch starts just after March 20...as planned. 3:17 12z Euro ENSM 6-10 850 Td.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Torch starts just after March 20...as planned. 3:17 12z Euro ENSM 6-10 850 Td.gif The problem with this type of setup is there really is not much appeal to it, there is too much suppression to allow a system into the region so all that is left is cold and dry weather. I mean if people like that I suppose that is fine but I don't see the appeal at this point. I mean if it is going to be dry it might as well at least be near normal. I could understand if we were saving a snow pack from being destroyed but most of the region is for the most part snow less or with a minimal snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The problem with this type of setup is there really is not much appeal to it, there is too much suppression to allow a system into the region so all that is left is cold and dry weather. I mean if people like that I suppose that is fine but I don't see the appeal at this point. I mean if it is going to be dry it might as well at least be near normal. I could understand if we were saving a snow pack from being destroyed but most of the region is for the most part snow less or with a minimal snow pack. My feelings exactly. I'm still up for a snowstorm but if that's not in the cards I'd rather we start getting close to 50 on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 My feelings exactly. I'm still up for a snowstorm but if that's not in the cards I'd rather we start getting close to 50 on a regular basis. Bingo, if there is no snowstorm potential, which as it stands right now there isn't, then what is the point of useless cold and dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Punt till may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Punt till may This gives us hope for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 The problem with this type of setup is there really is not much appeal to it, there is too much suppression to allow a system into the region so all that is left is cold and dry weather. I mean if people like that I suppose that is fine but I don't see the appeal at this point. I mean if it is going to be dry it might as well at least be near normal. I could understand if we were saving a snow pack from being destroyed but most of the region is for the most part snow less or with a minimal snow pack. Well, better draw the curtains then. Despite our wants and wishes, it's gonna be what it's gonna be. I guess I need to remember that when its 96/79 in July at LAF. Punt till may May will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Well, better draw the curtains then. Despite our wants and wishes, it's gonna be what it's gonna be. I guess I need to remember that when its 96/79 in July at LAF. May will be rocking. I am not denying the boredom to come I am just not understanding the celebration of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Cold and dry, especially cloudy, cold and dry is nothing to write home about, that's for sure. After looking at the latest 10 day... it looks like my kids are going to have a less-than-nice Spring Break. Looks like some rain and clouds in that week, at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am not denying the boredom to come I am just not understanding the celebration of it. I don't understand people celebrating extreme heat. But everyone has their own thing. Not sure why it bothers you so much. I think the turnaround from last March to this March is quite fascinating...not to mention the possible record -AO. But I always favor cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Blah...same old same old on the models...some slight warming by the end of March, but more normal then anything at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I don't understand people celebrating extreme heat. But everyone has their own thing. Not sure why it bothers you so much. I think the turnaround from last March to this March is quite fascinating...not to mention the possible record -AO. But I always favor cold. No I agree celebrating extreme heat is stupid as well, but you are keying in on the wrong part. If it was cold and active I wouldn't care, but the next 10 days resemble probably the most mundane weather you can get this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am not denying the boredom to come I am just not understanding the celebration of it. It depends, having even a minor snowpack, like 3 inches or so, cold and dry is ok, but with bare ground, I can imagine it would suck for just about all the winter lovers on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I could see a strong storm at the end of the strong -AO to break the pattern. It could be here or along the east. Till then mood flakes and cold temperature with interesting weather all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 We are really paying for last March. The good news is that it has to end at some point but patience is required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Punt till may A shank. April will call for a fair catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 We are really paying for last March. The good news is that it has to end at some point but patience is required. Yeah, we've been in this pattern for awhile now, so warm air has to be right around the corner. Just gotta trudge through the next 6-9 days of crappy weather. This stretch of horrible weather will only make the warmth that much sweeter when it hopefully arrives after 9-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 No I agree celebrating extreme heat is stupid as well, but you are keying in on the wrong part. If it was cold and active I wouldn't care, but the next 10 days resemble probably the most mundane weather you can get this time of year. There could be some nice LES totals from this side of the state and the the UP. That isn't too mundane. But on your side of the state, yes, it will be a little bit more mundane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 No I agree celebrating extreme heat is stupid as well, but you are keying in on the wrong part. If it was cold and active I wouldn't care, but the next 10 days resemble probably the most mundane weather you can get this time of year. There could be some nice LES totals from this side of the state and the the UP. That isn't too mundane. But on your side of the state, yes, it will be a little bit more mundane. I excited to see the totals.... True, those in the lake belt are never bored when the flow is from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I fully expect the negative AO to maintain itself and even deepen as projected through the end of the month but then rise into positive territory as we head into April and signal a significant pattern change. Have to enjoy the near record territory the AO is currently in for this season and the duration of its negative values. I for one am glad this was NOT present during January. Although I enjoy snow I am not a fan of extremely bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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