Ajdos Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Greetings from HW!!!! Hope you all get 2 feet of nothing! : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Have fun in the Midwest with this type of AO pattern. AO of -3 or -4. Large height anomalies all over the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Unless it's a fluke 12z GFS has quite the 984 bomb over eastern Nebraska March 21 with significant snows and svr wx all a possibility if this is anything but fantasyland over the next week. Something to watch at least. I'm guessing that's going to be a freezing rain maker for Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 I'm guessing that's going to be a freezing rain maker for Michigan. You are on a freezing rain kick the last couple of days. Any reason in particular? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 This is just getting silly..every day it grows colder and colder... GFS agees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The Euro is really cold over the next week. It shows high temperatures below freezing and lows getting in to the single digits next Wednesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The Euro is really cold over the next week. It shows high temperatures below freezing and lows getting in to the single digits next Wednesday and Thursday. If any places in southern WI can get snow cover over the next 5 days, I imagine there could be some record lows. Further north, ND and northern MN could see some very impressive cold for late March with all of their snow cover...maybe -10F in some spots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 This is just getting silly..every day it grows colder and colder... GFS agees... Yeah, I'd be perfectly fine with getting this out of here as quickly as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Almost historic blocking. Looks to peak soon. Don S had a good write up on this block party. Sometimes after a prolonged period of blocking there are periods of little to no blocking. Something to look out for in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Where the hell was this during December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 With the solar strength being what it is in mid March, monthly temp in Lansing is 3.5 degrees colder this March compared to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Where the hell was this during December. Im not an expert on blocking, but I think if we had record blocking in December our region would be kissing goodbye to any kind of synoptic activity, hoping for clippers (and you would be chasing LES). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Im not an expert on blocking, but I think if we had record blocking in December our region would be kissing goodbye to any kind of synoptic activity, hoping for clippers (and you would be chasing LES). LES was non existent in December.... Probably one of the worst Decembers I have ever seen to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Im not an expert on blocking, but I think if we had record blocking in December our region would be kissing goodbye to any kind of synoptic activity, hoping for clippers (and you would be chasing LES).That's more or less what's happening now.At the same time, if the Pacific plays ball, the intense blocking situation can also be blessings in terms of big snowstorms. For exampke, see what the 00z GFS and GGEM are showing for early next week. But that's how it is with weather. Things are never cut and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 If any places in southern WI can get snow cover over the next 5 days, I imagine there could be some record lows. Further north, ND and northern MN could see some very impressive cold for late March with all of their snow cover...maybe -10F in some spots? KINL had a low of -17F a couple of mornings ago and that was with -15C 850mb temperatures. If the -20C 850mb temperatures the Euro is showing next week verify for that area, similar low temperatures could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Obscene. Yowzers. With the PNA expected to remain weakly negative to near neutral as the MJO attempts to move into the Western Hemisphere over the next week to 10 days, and a supply of cold due to the insanely strong -AO, I have a sneaky feeling a good chunk of this sub-forum will see at least one more accumulating snow before we flip the calender into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Yowzers. With the PNA expected to remain weakly negative to near neutral as the MJO attempts to move into the Western Hemisphere over the next week to 10 days, and a supply of cold due to the insanely strong -AO, I have a sneaky feeling a good chunk of this sub-forum will see at least one more accumulating snow before we flip the calender into April. Spring cancel. With the AO going to extreme negative territory, it makes sense to have cold, but still the 12z runs today are insanely cold for late March. 850 0 line almost gets down to the Florida border on the 12z Euro next week. Considering how strong the block will be, wouldn't be surprised at all if the blockiness lingers into April and at least the first week is cold. CFS weeklies from 3/14 are showing exactly that, which seems reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Spring cancel. With the AO going to extreme negative territory, it makes sense to have cold, but still the 12z runs today are insanely cold for late March. 850 0 line almost gets down to the Florida border on the 12z Euro next week. Considering how strong the block will be, wouldn't be surprised at all if the blockiness lingers into April and at least the first week is cold. CFS weeklies from 3/14 are showing exactly that, which seems reasonable at this point. Down here it looks like I'll squeeze in two 50-60+ degree days before "winter" moves back in on Tuesday, with some risk for at least thunder tonight and again on Monday, so I'll take it We are certainly paying for last year, and much of Ohio (except for the northern third, where I happened to be when snow missed that portion of the state) and a good chunk of that region have seen decent snowfalls this month...I'm almost more worried about suppression after the Monday-Tuesday system than cutters for the rest of the month. Hoping with cold/snow remaining across Canada and the northern US that when the blocking retreats we can get some nice severe wx going somewhere, although that probably won't occur on a widespread basis until the second week of April with the strong blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The problem with suppression is that it ignores the downstream dynamics in play with the depth of the -AO. There should be a deep deep trough in the western US. The 6z GFS takes a bow for once? Personally I don't see a huge trough over the west...there will probably be one for a time next week, but if we end up seeing strong blocking extending from Greenland to Hudson Bay, there won't be storms cutting into the lakes...I personally wouldn't mind a trough on the west coast trying to send pieces of energy east under the block, if anything if the strong blocking does verify that would be the only chance for some synoptic snow east of the Mississippi. Convection has been very consistent along and just west of the dateline...and if that propagates like many of the models want to do, that will pop a +PNA by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Not sure what the record low for March is with tornadoes but this month might reach that. I don't believe that there has been a single tornado report all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 12z GEM is money for northern IL for a good snowstorm Sunday. It's all on it's own though. GEM sucks so the chances of it verifying are about as good as the 384hr GFS verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 One thing is for sure.. The weather patern the later part of SNarch will be more interesting than the begining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Not sure what the record low for March is with tornadoes but this month might reach that. I don't believe that there has been a single tornado report all month. The longer that snow-pack to the north holds on, the better severe season I would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The longer that snow-pack to the north holds on, the better severe season I would assume. You do make a good point, although having systems to tap that extra cold air is priority number one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Just out of curiosity, I did a little bit of digging to find out how frequent subfreezing highs are at Toronto, since with this current pattern extended for a while we might be looking at the possibility of seeing some this year. Turns out that they've actually occurred less frequently than I thought. Since 1960, they've only occurred 24 times, giving them a ~45% chance of happening in any given year. However, many months had consecutive days of subfreezing highs, and they only occurred in 13 of the past 53 years. 4/7/2009 4/7/2007, 4/6/2007, 4/7/2007 4/4/2003, 4/6/2003, 4/7/2003, 4/8/2003 4/8/1997 4/4/1996 4/9/1985 4/4/1982, 4/5/1982, 4/6/1982, 4/7/1982 4/8/1979 4/8/1977 4/4/1975, 4/6/1975 4/8/1974 4/6/1972, 4/7/1972, 4/8/1972 4/1/1965 Also, more of a coincidence than anything, but all of these dates except for two of them happened in the April 4 - 8 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 NAEFS is a broken record...basically half or more the country north to the far south (like the Yucatan) is way below normal the last week of March. Spring break fail unless you are going to California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Kudos to Qvectorman for the cold March call. And Don Sutherland as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Don S hit the nail on the head...can't wait to see what he thinks about April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Actually...compared to normal, the real cold will be east of here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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