andyhb Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Yes, agreed on those classic instances. Help me out, guys. Am I correct in thinking that a positive tilt system is oriented sw/ne and is usually intensifying and not considered as mature as a negative tilt system? Thus it is still increasing in intensity? If you are implying occlusion, then yes you would be correct. Many troughs swing negative from positive tilt as they are maturing, which is typically when they begin to occlude (I.E. the ULL closes off). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Areas just south of Duluth get crushed by snow in the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Areas just south of Duluth get crushed by snow in the next 7 days. 168totalGFS.png If you look at the 384 hr forecast, it is unbelievable how much snow it projects for parts of Minnesota (would make sense for January or February, but pretty impressive for mid to late March). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 If you look at the 384 hr forecast, it is unbelievable how much snow it projects for parts of Minnesota (would make sense for January or February, but pretty impressive for mid to late March). Wow! That's crazy. Almost 3' sw of International Falls. I don't think the snow is done yet. MSN could make 70" easily. Milwaukee probably close to 55" and probably near 60" here by the end. White Easter this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Pretty sad runs on this latter stages of blocking. Can't dig for the life of them. Ends up some boring northern stream BS. Bleh. Boring for who, looks pretty interesting for a good portion of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Pretty sad runs on this latter stages of blocking. Can't dig for the life of them. Ends up some boring northern stream BS. Bleh. Read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Color me unimpressed. Euro ensembles that bomb have blizzard for plains, really punches the Dakota's and MInnesota those runs do. Most of the forum would miss it outside the far western regions with the +10 line making up to Chicago WX and I's backyards. I could care less what the GFS says. Cool story bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Color me unimpressed. Euro ensembles that bomb have blizzard for plains, really punches the Dakota's and MInnesota those runs do. Most of the forum would miss it outside the far western regions with the +10 line making up to Chicago WX and I's backyards. I could care less what the GFS says. Yeah and that is still a system for the region, we just would be on the warm side of things. Doesn't mean it is a boring pattern for anyone in the region, if anything it looks quite active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Yeah and that is still a system for the region, we just would be on the warm side of things. Doesn't mean it is a boring pattern for anyone in the region, if anything it looks quite active. Definetly not boring it seems like it is threat after threat the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Tahiti? Nope..but I did try getting my nephew (who works for Delta) to get me some buddy passes so i can fly standby to Thailand...but the wife wasn't too keen on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Warmth? maybe in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 I see the potential for an ice storm at some point with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 How does all of this play it to the severe weather season? re: the write up from "weather centre" that someone linked to the other day. I am not so much interested in snow now, as I am with seeing how the patterns develop as we head into Spring over the next few weeks. Here is the link I was referring to: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/03/2013-official-severe-weather-outlook.html. The comments are most interesting, especially the one from the SPC, that one really kind of caught my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 April is when I am expecting the warmth, not the rest of this month for the Great Lakes at least. And if models continue to show as many active systems as they do now we will be setting ourselves up for that heightened svr wx risk that article and comments expect here in the Midwest since spring warmth and moisture will be advancing northward and a cold reservoir will most certainly be present in the northern tier to form a great baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Have to watch the early week system on the EURO. White line is approx. freezing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Have to watch the early week system on the EURO. White line is approx. freezing line. 12z is lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Snippet from an article on the MJO and United States tornado outbreaks (from AMS). The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has been linked to weather variability in the midlatitudes via its associated overturning circulations and Rossby wave trains that redistribute the thermal and mass fields at higher latitudes. This work examines the relationship between the MJO and violent tornado outbreaks in the United States. A census of events shows that violent tornado outbreaks during March, April, and May (MAM) are more than twice as frequent during phase 2 of the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index as during other phases or when the MJO was deemed inactive. Composite analyses show the global circulation patterns simultaneously associated with the MJO and the tornado outbreaks and also indicate the most favored low-frequency circulation pattern that precedes tornado outbreaks in RMM phase 2. An index of 300-hPa geopotential height data is generated by projecting 60-day mean values onto the composite low-frequency pattern. When that index exceeds one standard deviation and the MJO is in RMM phase 2 with an amplitude exceeding one standard deviation during MAM, violent tornado outbreaks occur 50% of the time, relative to the average frequency of less than 4%. Results demonstrate that the anomalous large-scale midlatitude circulation modulated by the MJO and lower-frequency signals can make conditions more or less favorable for tornado outbreaks. MJO currently and forecasted for the next 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 It hasn't been pushed back, it has been consistently showing it around March 7th since coming into range. Look I understand you want it to stay cold and have snow chances I am just looking at this realistically and that we won't stay cold all month if we start out with that gyre sitting over the East and high latitude blocking. One run of the Euro showing a -EPO isn't enough evidence to sway me right now, if it were to stay consistent then it would. By March 7th the +PNA starts to relax, the EPO is only slightly negative except for the Euro, and by then the NAO is starting to rise after tanking. All those things combined would spell a warming compared to the first week of March. I am not saying we are going to shooting way above average immediately but the signals are there that after March 7th we will start a warming trend. Whatever Harry, we will see what happens by mid March. You mean the Pac Jet that is shown to crash into the NW US around March 5th, and has been shown to do this for days now? It is going to flood the US with Pacific air. Oh and yes you didn't say that it would happen but you are speaking as if it should happen. I gave my reasoning via the teleconnections and the MJO moving into phase 6 at the same time, you are just choosing not to agree with it. That is fine by me, I'll let time dictate who is correct then. Next time think before you jump into a post of mine and basically accuse me of wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Next time think before you jump into a post of mine and basically accuse me of wishcasting. And the battle lines have been drawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Next time think before you jump into a post of mine and basically accuse me of wishcasting. To his credit we did have a warming trend from the 7th through the 11th. Detroit hit 65 which was well above average. He was wrong about that trend being a lasting one as it looks like we're not going to see any warming trend beyond seasonal climatology until the very end of the month at earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Snippet from an article on the MJO and United States tornado outbreaks (from AMS). MJO currently and forecasted for the next 14 days. Translation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 To his credit we did have a warming trend from the 7th through the 11th. Detroit hit 65 which was well above average. He was wrong about that trend being a lasting one as it looks like we're not going to see any warming trend beyond seasonal climatology until the very end of the month at earliest. DTW hit 65 because they were in the warm sector of a storm with raging WAA. We are clearly going right back to below normal temps for some time now. A few warm days is not a trend, its a few day warm spell, and I dont think harry or anyone implied that the cold lasting would mean there wouldnt be some warm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Fully agree. I am sticking to my call that we don't see any meaningful stretches of above normal temps ( torch like stuff ) till perhaps April at the earliest. At best a day or two shot IF we are lucky. To his credit we did have a warming trend from the 7th through the 11th. Detroit hit 65 which was well above average. He was wrong about that trend being a lasting one as it looks like we're not going to see any warming trend beyond seasonal climatology until the very end of the month at earliest. Thus the point of what i was debating. As you see above i said we could see a day or two like we just had aka above normal warmth/torch like stuff. Been saying that for the longest time. The 7th/8th were below normal, 9th normal and the 10/11th the two above normal torch days. BTW. This pattern will eventually have to break even if it is for a few weeks/month. Saw that during the extended warm spell we just came out of back in January. Question is when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Thus the point of what i was debating. As you see above i said we could see a day or two like we just had aka above normal warmth/torch like stuff. Been saying that for the longest time. The 7th/8th were below normal, 9th normal and the 10/11th the two above normal torch days. BTW. This pattern will eventually have to break even if it is for a few weeks/month. Saw that during the extended warm spell we just came out of back in January. Question is when? I don't know if we're going to have a pattern so much as wild swings from one extreme to the other with a stronger than average baroclinic zone repeatedly setting up right over GL/OV. There's such an insanely deep snow cover over western Canada it's going to take a while for it to warm up. That favors a negative PNA which would mean warmer except for the fact that the AO is also forecast to stay negative. More conducive to brief warm sector torches with severe weather possibilities followed by cold air plunging back in from the northern plains. Once western Canada melts out and heats up we'll probably go into a more boring coolish NW flow pattern with less of a rollercoaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Translation? Phase 8, 1, and 2 are cold signals for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Phase 8, 1, and 2 are cold signals for this region. IF the signal is strong enough. If it is weak ( like we have seen for a while ) many other things can trump it. As you can see here ( what we should be having ) the signal has been sorta weak/incoherent. BTW.. In March/Spring phase 8 is a warmer signal as you see above. Keep in mind it can change at any time and thus the signal become stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 IF the signal is strong enough. If it is weak ( like we have seen for a while ) many other things can trump it. As you can see here ( what we should be having ) the signal has been sorta weak/incoherent. --- BTW.. In March/Spring phase 8 is a warmer signal as you see above. Keep in mind it can change at any time and thus the signal become stronger. Ok. I couldn't remember about phase 8 for sure. I know we should be warm right now in phase 6, but we're far from that. We are almost non-existent phase 6 right now actually. haha Given the AO going in the tank and -EPO, I can see this pattern lasting till Easter easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Next time think before you jump into a post of mine and basically accuse me of wishcasting. I was wrong about it lasting but I was correct about there being a warm up around the time I had been mentioning, however it is posts like these that cause stupid confrontation around here that isn't needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 I was wrong about it lasting but I was correct about there being a warm up around the time I had been mentioning, however it is posts like these that cause stupid confrontation around here that isn't needed. Why it is best to avoid telling people that they are basically wish casting. Thus it is a two way street. Nobody seems to think ahead about what they are posting/replying to and tend to go off half cocked especially when disagreeing. My bump was also meant to let some others know that they should think before jumping in head first and attacking when they disagree with something posted. Others see it and then think it is okay to do the same and start doing it as well and well before you know it everything is basically unreadable filled with bickering and such that is not needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 14, 2013 Share Posted March 14, 2013 Why it is best to avoid telling people that they are basically wish casting. Thus it is a two way street. Nobody seems to think ahead about what they are posting/replying to and tend to go off half cocked especially when disagreeing. My bump was also meant to let some others know that they should think before jumping in head first and attacking when they disagree with something posted. Others see it and then think it is okay to do the same and start doing it as well and well before you know it everything is basically unreadable filled with bickering and such that is not needed. Neither one of us was correct so I don't see the point of bumping something other than to cause pointless argumentative discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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